Might this be the first -2% day for the S&P since February 2023?
-2.31% for the S&P, the first -2% day since February 21, 2023. The Nasdaq took it right in the jimmies, -3.68%.
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The 100 DMA is 5287. Expect a test of that. If that fails, the 200 DMA currently sits at 4975 but would probably be near 5000 by the time of any retest of it.
Sounds a whole lot like there’s no September rate cut coming.
Markets didn’t drop like a rock like I expected. Yet.
The headlines and story I read said that there is.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/07/31/fed-rate-cuts-inflation/
Disagree.
Powell certainly makes it sound possible, but did not want to sound committal. It sounds like it is certainly possible if the data continues to support it between now and the next meeting.
I listened to his news conference. He was very clear inflation was still above the 2% target and economic growth was stable, they were still monitoring the data and he didn’t want to cut too early and risk reigniting inflation.
Yes, he left open the door that a cut could happen if the data shifted to warrant it. But it was not some semi-decisive if things continue on the current path, a rate cut may be warranted near-term set of remarks by any stretch.
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The markets seem to have it fully priced in.
Octobers futures rate, ZQV4, is currently at 94.965, implying an average daily rate of 5.035.
Their target is currently 5.25-5.50, and they’ve been holding steady just under the midpoint of that (Overnight Bank Funding Rate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK).
A 25 bp drop would bring the middle of their new target to 5.125, of course.
So, it about all lines up with “fully expect a 25 bp cut”.
Calf E. Aht
Of course, if futures markets were always accurate, we’d be in the second term of H Clinton’s presidency right now, so there’s that.
No guarantee she would have won in 2020 if she’d won in 2016. The GOP might have conceivably regrouped after a Trump loss and handed control back to a more reasonable faction.
What a better place the world (and especially the United States) would be if that had happened.
Let me say up front: I think the Fed cuts in September. But there was a lot of … non-dovish? talk in his press conference. Certainly not hawkish by any stretch of the imagination, but not any 
dovish remarks, more a neutral positioning.
I think Powell is trying to play this game where he’s not outright saying they’re going to cut for “the Fed is really independent” kabuki theater, but the Fed has been beholden to the stock market for the last 15 years and the Fed is going to do whatever it can to avoid the market selling off in response to the Fed not doing something.
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Of course not, but…yeah.
I doubt it. It would’ve been four years of Trump whining about all the 
that he whines about.
Regardless, you make some very good points, and I don’t want this thread to drift into political because of me.
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The market is ahead of the FED so much that FED cuts are almost irrevelant.
MARKET SELL-OFF - probably the chryon on CNBC right now
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I typically check my portfolio whenever you post.
Stop posting when it’s bad!
Still, June and especially July wiped out May losses, and of the prior 5 months only January was slightly negative surrounded by lots of green, so 
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Take the long view guys or you will go 
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The S&P is still up almost 19% over the past year. Not quite fire sale prices yet.
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Confirmed.
(It’s the static park of the red bar; couldn’t get it larger due to YTTV’s copy protection measures.)
EDIT: Also part of the Fox Business display:
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Yeah, that’s what I’m mocking. We’re up 19% over the past year, more than double over the last 4 years, up almost 52% over the last 22 months even with today’s drop. Markets go +1.6% in a day, … that’s totally fine - not a peep, not a blaring chryon, MARKETS IN MELT-UP. We have a -1.6% day, and all the finance news sites freak out.
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S&P -2.1%, Nasdaq -3.2%, VIX above 21 in early trading, and someone took INTC out back and shot it.
But, it’s Friday, so between Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell they’re thinking of words to jawbone the market back up and maybe roll out a new Fed program to provide extra liquidity to avoid any and all sudden market declines unnecessary market “stress.”
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