Yeah, I’m on the sidelines for round two here. After the last spike, I thought it was pretty much over, I had a fleeting thought to buy when it was ~$40 in case this happened but I dismissed it. And I don’t have a good thesis on what’s happening today or what might happen in the near term. Last time it dipped heavily after the peak, and then there was a second peak around $350 or so.
I’m out of nearly all of my speculative positions, I’m holding my Mazda (MZDAY) stock because I think it could be a long term value play, and I’m holding a pretty large position in Emerson Electric (EMR) that’s a boring dividend stock. I am holding a lot of cash right now.
That’s just my fun money, of course. All of my real money is in 80% Russell 2k and 20% bonds, because actuary. I should really think about adding international exposure, but I’ll stick to Bogle-approved low-cost ETFs.
Yesterday was fun for GME, I happened to be watching it when it fell by about half in ~15 minutes. There is a short sale restriction today, to the extent shorts were active yesterday (no idea) that will be less effective today. Hoping that either today or tomorrow we get some really crazy movement.
I don’t understand what is going on. I get when it pumps (and then subsequently dumps), but at this point there is sustained support for $160+. $13b valuation. A company that loses money and has a brick and mortar infrastructure. I’m truly shocked at how it hasn’t crashed back down to $20 yet.
It will, eventually. Just that no one wants to be the first to offer to sell at, say, $159.50. Just waiting for Tiger (the dog) to come running through the room.
Wow. Looked at this again today (because i remember thoroughly enjoying watching from the sidelines in January through March) and it looks like most of the volatility is gone, disappeared along with the volume. Here’s YTD from Yahoo:
Fairly settled between 150-200 ever since the middle of March. Maybe that’s the right range after all?
GME is back on the menu. I don’t have a stake this time but it’s fun to watch. Roaring Kitty aka Deep Fucking Value has 120,000 calls @ $20 for June 21 plus 5,000,000 shares. Or so he says, maybe he faked the screen shot, who knows?
How much did he make the first time around? I thought it was in the range of $50m-$100m? 5m shares would be $200m itself.
It’s also an interesting thing. He is in a unique position where his involvement and posting can and will move the stock price. Feels like it should be illegal. He can easily make hundreds of millions of dollars in basically a pump and dump scheme here.
That would go against his persona and how he acted the first time around. But to get in and make $500m-$1b and then get out feels very easy for him to do.
I did watch the Gamestop movie on a plane recently. Pretty interesting.
Still hurts a little because it’s so dumb. And because I personally lost money trying to bet against it. And it’s so easy to wish you had been in early and made a stupid amount of money. Very pump and dumpy feelings all around.
I think he wound up around the $50M mark in 2021, which implies he’s done very well since then.
I go back and forth on whether this should be legal, it definitely feels like a pump and dump. OTOH maybe the market makers and hedge funds need one more lesson on risk management.
And I feel bad for the folks I see on Reddit. I think some of them genuinely believe this stock is going to be over $1k and somehow stay there.
I made about $14k or $15k, mostly on GME but a little from BB and BBBY. One of the most stressful weeks of my life. I’m staying on the sidelines this time.
Pandemonium. GameStop announced they are issuing 75M shares, volume is quite high today - over 100M in the first hour of trading. Roaring Kitty is going live on YouTube in 75 minutes. IV for most of the options is in the ballpark of 1,000%. Fortunes will be made and lost today.
i did too. thought it was very good. one thing they didn’t do (which for a near comparison, the big short tried and did ok) was explain the financial mechanisms going on. what is a short squeeze and why was it working in this way. a cutaway to margot robbie in a tub would have been wonderful!
