So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

But democracy is on the wane in Eastern Europe - look at Poland and Hungary.

I have the same impression but I thought I’d do some checking. This lead me to Freedom House: Countries and Territories | Freedom House

It looks like something an actuary would devise. Each country is graded on 25 categories of democratic processes or individual freedoms. If you drill down, there are multiple criteria for each. A “perfect” score is 100. Three countries got that – yep, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

Some other scores
61 - Ukraine
69 – Hungary
81 – Poland
83 – US

Reading the text, Hungary, Poland, and the US are all slipping. Ukraine is getting better. Its biggest problem seems to be corruption and money power, somewhat operating through a court.

I think they’re a little tough on the US, but that’s criticizing the home team in this case.

From other sources, the Hungarian president has been pretty cozy with Putin. Presumably he will be running away from that position in the near future.

These measures, of course, have some subjectivity to them but are still interesting. Foreigners, rightly or wrongly, have viewed Republican efforts to make voting more difficult as very concerning so I expect that has significantly influenced the results.

In contrast, Canada at 98 sounds a bit high….

Yep, voting laws make their list. But it’s a number of others – Trump and corruption, politicized courts, money in politics, too many murders, Jan 6, …

detail here: Countries and Territories | Freedom House

This is like command & conquer where you take out all them GDI tanks with rocket troops

I keep reading all these intellectual opinions pieces on what really motivates Putin, and what we should do about him, and they all seem as bizarrely contradictory and out of touch as the same opinion pieces that tried to understand Trump voters 6 years ago.

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Putin is acting like how I would act if I were a bored dictator. So I understand him perfectly.

Related to that, what is Putin’s bottom line on stopping the attack in Ukraine? Will Ukraine’s agreement to not seek NATO membership and its ceding of some of its territory give Putin “the win” he feels he needs. There are no winners here, of course.

War is the inevitable result of mankind playing Civ on standard speed.

The “win” for Putin is the infliction of maximum misery on Ukranians, expecting he’ll never have to pay a price for it.

Which, he may never have to.

Russian tank crews are throwing cages on thier roofs, but they probably aren’t helping.

Estimates vary widely in terms of how many men and how much materiel Russia has lost. Below is a good article ballparking how many tanks and other vehicles have been lost. Death counts seem to also vary widely, but it’s very clear that Russia is not faring well thus far.

They seem to have severely underestimated the Ukrainian people, and likely did not plan on the west sending 20,000 (and counting) anti tank and anti aircraft missiles. Russia’s old tanks are in no way built to withstand Javelin and NLAW rockets. There are about a dozen videos of Ukrainians hitting a tank with a modern rocket, the rocket blows through the top, and then the ammunition inside the tank gets cooked and explodes.

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I don’t think they can’t. The just chose not to. It’s something that a country has to keep deciding to do. That’s what making many Americans worried about the lack of backlash against Trump after he pushed to overturn an election that voted him out of office. People who still support Trump are no longer making the choice to keep America a democratic government. The same thing happened in Russia when the voters decided to look the other way when Putin engaged in corruption and anti-democratic activities.

Or when the President of the United States actively tried to overturn election results and there wasn’t a political price paid by the people who supported him?

But there are wieners.

The Freedom House scorecard includes that in item A1, the new laws are in item A3. They are pretty comprehensive: United States: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House

Why are you not enjoying your freedom?

I specifically requested it.

I’m listening

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A few cosmonauts made an interesting fashion choice upon arrival at the ISS.

Wow… I wonder how long they’re scheduled to be aboard the ISS and what pleasantries await them when they get home.

Can you request political asylum from the ISS?