So uh, do you guys think Putin will invade Ukraine or what

Day 1,568 of Putin’s 3 day war…

450+ drones this time

I look at the direction of that war and think that Putin is perfectly willing to turn Ukraine into rubble if they don’t bow the knee. I don’t see anything stopping him.

Well, there is usually no pension in the dictator business.

Can the Russian economy be crippled enough to make a difference in the War?

I will admit that Russia has been a lot more resilient than I thought possible (based mostly on western sanctions), but that was before Ukraine had deep-strike capabilities with drones (the US limited their ability to launch HIMARs into Russia and Musk (Starlink) also limited their ability as well to launch drones deep into Russia).

If Ukraine keeps hitting the refineries and gas fields (we are talking about hitting targets 3,000kms away which Ukraine w has shown it can now do), Russia won’t be able to finance its war machine for very long (they would need to borrow heavily leading to much higher debt service costs as well).

Obviously Putin doesn’t care about throwing more people into the meat grinder, but I would think he would be concerned about being ousted from within (the war is already unpopular in Russia now. If they have to make big spending cuts it will piss off a lot of people who rely on the state so there is that avenue to consider)

The main risk now for Europe and Ukraine is that Putin is expanding his hybrid warfare into attacking EU countries (I figure the more damage is done to the Russian economy the more he will keep attacking Europe).

I can understand that Ukraine hitting oil infrastructure can be a problem for Putin. But, in his mind, he can create even bigger problems for Zelensky because Putin only needs to hit 1/3 as many targets. Putin figures he can win the war of attrition.

I can believe that more Russians are becoming negative about the war. I don’t think that matters to Putin. Public opinion doesn’t matter as long as the people with guns obey Putin.

But, I’m just an American who doesn’t even speak Russian, much less have experience living there.

I dunno. I think it’s becoming quite clear the resource battle extends well beyond Ukraine at this point. Which is why he keeps threatening Europe.

Wrong thread?

Yep. Fat finger

Ukraine captures 250 Russian soldiers by dropping ground drones behind Russian lines

Zelenskyy denounces Trump’s decision to lift diesel sanctions on Russia as ‘weak’

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, denounced Donald Trump’s decision to suspend sanctions on Russia, to let the US buy diesel fuel from the nation that kills Ukrainian civilians daily, in an interview with Axios on Friday.

Zelenskyy, who had traveled to Washington to plead with US lawmakers to pass tougher sanctions on Russia last month, reportedly told Axios on Friday that Trump’s decision, was “not fair and not honest” and “looks like a happy birthday present for Putin”.

“It looks absolutely terrible,” he added.

Ukraine’s president also criticized Trump’s decision in a statement on social media, in which he wrote:

Peace never comes through weakness. Today, representatives of the U.S. Congress were in Kyiv – a bipartisan delegation – and I am grateful to them for visiting Ukraine at such a difficult time. They asked: what is needed to end the war? The answer must be strong. There must be sanctions under the Lindsey Graham bill, there must be support for Ukraine in protecting lives, and there must be pressure on Russia for its war. And today, there was a conversation between the leaders of America and Russia. A conversation that leads to something different. …

Any easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is an obvious weakness. It plays into Russia’s hands – allowing it to kill more, wage war for longer, have even less respect for America, and inflict even greater losses and damage on the world. …

Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world. Russia will “repay” the diesel with further terror and perfidy. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged. What is needed is real de-escalation with Russia on a reciprocal basis. We count on America’s fair support for our defense of life, for our defense of people in Ukraine – and on the United States having a correspondingly strong conversation with Russia. A strong one, not a weak one.

Does tRump think this will stop Ukraine from bombing diesel refineries or something, which in turn helps Russia, which will renege on its promise to provide the USA diesel, and crush their enemies.

He thinks it will play well before the election. That’s all that matters.

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Trump wrote on social media that Putin agreed to “immediately supply” more than 300,000 tons of diesel to global energy markets, with another 500,000 tons promised in November. Together, the amounts — equal to 6 million barrels of diesel fuel — would cover about a day and a half worth of US demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Yes and we will see a lot more desperate Trump declarations in the remaining days before the election.

Trump hates Zelensky and idolizes Putin. The Russia sanctions act is going to be about as effective as the Epstein transparency act.

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Trump got his ass handed to him in Iran, so he goes and cuts a deal with Putin covering all of nine days of U.S. consumption. Oh, and his son-in-law? Ah, forget it — too boring.

I wonder what constitutes “agreed” in Russia’s and Ukraine’s minds.

“Thank you for your attention to this matter.” is usually reserved for his most ridiculous claims.

Neither of the affected parties have confirmed this.

Seems to exist only in Trump’s mind.

What a weird world we live in.

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If Trump were serious about a ceasefire, he’d tell his people to cut off the target data on Russian refineries going to Ukraine. The whole thing is kayfabe.