It would be a major hassle for suburban dwellers like me with paved driveways to be incapable of visiting people that I want to visit who have unpaved driveways or wish me to park on their grass though. I don’t want a car that causes more headaches than it solves. If it can’t drive to my one friend’s house with an unpaved driveway or to the campground with a long unpaved drive, or to park in someone’s yard at the state fair or to go on the grass slightly when the cleaning lady doesn’t pull over as far to the right in my driveway as she should and I’m willing to drive on my grass this one time because it hasn’t been raining lately and I’m in a hurry… that’s just… more hassle than it’s worth to me.
If it can’t drive through construction then that’s almost completely useless.
I can think of a lot of ways that cars will get tripped up too.
cars are way more lethal than horses, driving at higher speed, and also way heavier, and also have no intelligence on their own (horses will stop at a cliff without your guidance, cars won’t).
cars need good roads, horses don’t
you need to train people to drive cars, which I think is more difficult (intuitively, especially if I lived back in the day).
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#1 proved to be true. Cars are way more deadly and more expensive to fix than horses. That is something that we as a society are willing to accept, and we moved on.
Even if AVs can’t solve some of the issues, as long as the benefits outweigh them, it doesn’t really matter.
What’s your source for cars being more lethal than horses? I wouldn’t have thought that. Especially not in the early days of cars when they didn’t go anywhere near as fast as they go now.
Cars benefit from good roads, but most cars don’t require them. The ride is more pleasant and you have the option to go faster if you have good roads. That’s true of both cars and horse-drawn carriages. Neither strictly require good roads though.
Learning to drive a horse-drawn carriage is easier that leaning to drive a car, although there’s the additional issue of learning how to properly tack the horse, which is more difficult. Learning how to ride a horse is harder than learning how to drive a car, IMO, but maybe similar from a difficulty standpoint, especially for a manual transmission.
Learning how to care for horses is a lot of additional work too.
How much experience do you have with horses? It doesn’t really seem like you know what you’re talking about.
I don’t have experience with owning a Level 5 AV… none of us do.
But I certainly know what it would take for me to consider replacing a manually driven car with one.
When cars first came out no one had experience with them either. But they knew what it would take for them to switch.
Your guesses about the ease of owning and caring for horses and using them for transportation are not “speculation” about some future event. You’re just saying things that aren’t true.
The problem is it doesn’t matter what you personally think would make you want to switch. you will be forced to switch when society thinks it’s for the better, even at a cost.
I’m sure you’re an excellent driver, and no AV will achieve your level of proficiency. I, on the other hand, hate driving, can’t park for shit, and also am almost never sober when I go out. I think there are more people like me than there are people like you.
I think your ideas about when we will reach this point are extremely wrong.
I will not be forced until the issues I bring up are addressed. Any politician who tries to do such forcing prematurely will be immediately voted out of office, if not recalled prior to his/her next re-election.
I’m sure that an upper middle class person such as myself will have voluntarily chosen AV long before a politician forces it on me. But that point will he well after the issues I raise are addressed.
And realistically I’ll be dead by then. I’m already 46.
And it’s possible that you won’t be able to purchase a new manually driven car by then, although I’m skeptical.
No freaking way are they going to outlaw manually driven cars by 2050.
Maybe in some designated lanes, like Lucy said. But I’ll still be able to drive my manually driven car wherever I want to, even if I face a few minor restrictions.
It most definitely will start from cities and branch out from there. It’s easy to envision a total ban of non-AVs in the cities.
30 years is a long ass time. Most of the issues you brought up will be solved by machine learning. Machines need data to learn. Right now we don’t have enough data. The more AVs we have on the road, the more accidents happen, the more data we collect, and the safer AVs become.
The path to the AV you foresee yourself driving will be paved by accidents and deaths, but it will be an exponential path as more and more AVs get on the road.
Nuclear was the future too and is basically on its way out now. Public opinion could derail AVs. They don’t just need to be a little safer, it needs to be basically flawless at what it’s advertised to do.
Yeah, it is. Nuclear plants have been getting shut down and it’s incredibly difficult to start any, especially in the US. I agree we need more of it, but public opinion is powerful.
Yeah, especially post-Fukushima nuclear power has a particularly bad reputation. Mostly undeserved, though not entirely.
By the way, I can see a few pages here & there of the old AO thread that happened to be archived on the wayback machine, but very few.
A post discussing level 6 automation, but we lost power before I could read more than a couple of words.
If I find anything good, I’ll attempt to post it, but my expectations are low. It had to be the top thread in the Property & Casualty subforum at the time wayback did the snapshot and even then maybe 10% of the time you can see the most recent page’s worth of posts and the pages are capped at 10 posts.
