Random Thoughts

my yahoo account is used mostly for subscription stuff these days, or anything else where someone asks for an email address and I’m not sure if this is forever or not. i get like 100 emails a day, 3 of which i care to read. i need to delete more of them. perhaps i’ll just do the bulk thing

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Did EY lay off actuaries in the last couple days? Had a few people reach out to me to “catch up” and they’re not really the type…

It’s hot and gross out, and our portable A/C can’t keep up. If no one contributes a dinner suggestion soon, I’m just going to eat ice cream.

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Ice cream. You should have ice cream for dinner.

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Scream for ice cream!

I am surprised by Ireland losing so many tourists.

Can’t recall any major issues in the country over the last year to cause that.

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It would be interesting to see actual numbers as well as the % change.

Much easier to get a larger percentage when the starting number is rather small.

Also if the previous year had been unusually large or small and this is just regressing back to the mean.

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actuaries gonna actuate!

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True!!

What’s surprising to me is that the change for the US is as small as it is . . .

But perhaps hosting the World Cup mitigated that decrease. In the same vein, I’m surprised Canada is as large as it is . . . and Mexico is nowhere on this list.

Might be cost driven? I thought I saw something about Ireland generally getting expensive recently. Opposite is true for Japan, but that is FX driven.

​Risk, risk, baby… Actuary Baby.

Risk, risk, baby… Actuary Baby.

​Alright, stop, actuate and listen,

Actuaries back with a brand new vision.

Data grabs a hold of me tightly,

Modeling variance daily and nightly.

Will it ever stop? Yo, I don’t know,

Turn up the reserve and let the cash flow.

To the extreme, I rock a spreadsheet like a vandal,

Light up a model and check every variable.

​Dance, go rush to the database,

Calculating risk at an incredible pace.

Deadly, when I play a stochastic song,

Anything less than a 95% CI is wrong.

Love it or leave it, you better gain insight,

You better hit target or the surplus ain’t right.

If there was a claim, yo, I’ll solve it,

Check out the hook while my model revolves it.

​Risk, risk, baby… Actuary Baby.

Risk, risk, baby… Actuary Baby.

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These numbers appear to only compare 2025 to 2019. 2026 numbers for Canada were strong compared to 2025.

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:grin: thanks @The_President , I needed that!

Temperature well up into the 90s on the back deck today. The US should better control the hot air they send across the Canadian border.

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I bet the guy that does that Man vs Food TV show has the worst poops in the world.

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Somebody should have warned him Singapore is really not a good place for this type of behavior.

The last guy who did something similar got caned.

I don’t think the two cases you’re connecting here are actually “similar” . . .

The key reference for Michael Fay is a violation of Singapore’s Vandalism Act which " . . . criminalises a number of different acts done in relation to public and private property, namely, stealing, destroying or damaging public property."

The French Teen didn’t do anything along those lines–at the very least, it would be a steep, up-hill battle to convict on “damaging” the straw since it was still functional, just not sanitary. The worst penalty under consideration for this guy was paying a much larger fine (S$2,000 vs. the actual S$600).

I’m sure that if a Singapore/Chinese national of the same age did the same thing, that fine would likely be closer the that maximum.

the mcdonald’s mcchicken gal - she seems nice