Having the 125 scenarios is a handy resource for sure. However, what all of those 125 scenarios cover are periods of significant population growth. We may be entering a period of stagnant population, perhaps even a decline. I’d be curious to know how that will affect GDP growth.
You make a good point that wouldn’t have occurred to me. There are any number of caveats one might make using that site. I don’t see the result from that site and start thinking, “time to withdraw $96K”
I do try to warn people on websites that lots of indicators suggest the market is frothy and the economy not too good, and if that is the case and you looked for those scenarios in history the returns would be quite a bit lower.
Also I wonder how much of the growth can be attributable to government spending. Bush gave a bunch away. Biden & Trump gave a ton away. I wonder what the returns would be like had there been no COVID stimulus. Seems problematic to assume those levels will continue without consequences.
I did some rebalancing today, lightening up on big winners NVDA, MA, V and ASML to reallocate to funds for diversification.
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It’s very not worth it. I can do options on a million companies that aren’t mine. Realistically, I’ll keep putting my money into indexes for the rest of my career.
You may have SEC imposed rules on why you can’t do this, and you will very likely have company imposed rules on this as well. Sounds like a prudent idea, but there are also reasons for caution.
I’m in a really interesting position for this upcoming annual where I am relatively critical. I fulfill necessary functions that nobody else at the company can do.
In theory, I can always be replaced by consultants and eventually another actuary. But needing that would be Pretty Terrible News for the company at this time. It wouldn’t be easy.
The position pays pretty well, so I’m not looking to rock the boat. But in the past, I’ve always approached reviews in the position of somebody who is 1 of perhaps 4 or 15 people doing substantially similar work. Much more expendable in the past.
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You gotta ask for it. They aren’t just going to give it to you “just in case”
The American dream is pretty much dead.
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/old-young-economic-divide-7a5203f0?st=bZrkam
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The Great Society and FDR’s New Deal saved the parents.
Now the parents are so well off that the kids are struggling.
Oh, and no one has kids to support them in old age anymore (they don’t need that), so we need more immigrants and a higher birth rate.
Who knew?
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Article is paywalled, but “the thing that made my parents successful isn’t making me successful” seems like an every generation issue?
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Article is paywalled, but the first couple lines say something like “father in chemical engineering did well, now daughter is applying to marketing jobs and having a tough time”. You’d think at this point people would know marketing jobs are hard to come by and have less of a chance of success than engineering. Guess not.
In any case, I don’t think “the thing that made my parents successful isn’t making me successful” is the issue. I think the older generations have become richer and less personally in touch with the struggles of the younger generations. And that is new. Before Social Security and Medicare, older people were poorer than the general public, not richer.
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They also have some pictures of the candidates struggling to land a job
I know you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover but their interviewer might not abide by this
Yeah, i saw the same first few lines, was thinking “college degree” is defining the ticket to success. But really, it’s choosing a path that has a good long term outlook.
My dad worked blue collar shift work for 30 years and retired at 55 and pretty well off. Technically he was getting laid off, and those jobs were dying. I never had a comparable path to success.
Actuary has served me well, when i graduated it was 100% employment and since then, plenty of opportunity at my experience level. But there was a bubble of new students around 2010 that conincided with the Financial crises that did not provide new grads similar opportunities. I believe that has been better in recent years but now AI will put pressure on things.
With boomers aging, im guessing health and in home services will be a lucrative option for my kids. Boomers have a lot of wealth to transfer and will want to maintain their standard of living, at home.
The point is just that every generation makes money and has success in a way that looks different from their parents.
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Kids will do better if they have rich parents. If their parents are poor it will be more of a struggle. Not fair but it has always been thus.
Rich boomers should be giving their wealth to their children and grandchildren earlier rather than hording it until they die. Our kids all struggle with housing costs as they are in expensive markets. They need help now not later on.
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In home care is not exactly the road to financial success for most people.
Maybe the few who own the businesses will do well, but the many who are aides are making peanuts
Health care hopefully continues to be a good path. But then, it always was.
Average age of inheritance (due to death) is 61.
Thats too old really to help one generation back.
In the UK, we do see granparents paying for the private education of their grandchildren (so two generations back).
But that doesnt help their immediate kids get on the housing ladder.
My parents were unsuccessful morons. I’ve done much better than them, despite how crappy they were at parenthood.
I am jealous of peers and coworkers that got a step up from their parents in their early years.
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Still not over it?
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In Australia because of the housing crisis (like quite a few countries) the only way for most young people to be able to afford a house is to borrow from the Bank of Mum and Dad (that is, have rich parents).