Pricing, Reserving & Forecasting Module

Is anyone working on this that would like to brainstorm?

Would anyone be interested in starting a Google Group to discuss? Thanks!

I’m working on it now. Just wrapped up Q2. If you haven’t already submitted, let me know if you’d like to colab on it.

Working on this now.

For the incurred claims method - what annual trend did you use for the 2017 IBNR months?

Initial thought was to use the 2015 PMPM to 2016 PMPM trend. (2015 Payments/2015 Members, same for 2016).

Any other ideas or thoughts of doing it?

For task 3, I’m not super confident in how I’m developing the voluntary lapse rates. Basically, I’m using the various tables to calculate relativities for sex, issue age, etc. and then applying them to the main rates. Did anyone else use a different approach?

The example in the module calls out how it’s common to use a more conservative trend for reserving. My thought was to calculate the historical trend like you said and then adjust it upward.

Think as long as you explain how you’re using those lapse rates it’ll be fine.

Or just pick the most conservative lapse rate table and explain it that way.

Is anyone here currently working on this? I’ve come up with answers for all of the tasks but wanted to bounce some ideas off of others