The only thing I’m really surprised about is that these things didn’t crop up earlier. I would have thought the technology to make them has existed for a long time now.
Anyway…
They are clearly being manipulated by insiders.
Trump’s kid (Don Jr) also sits on the board of these things.
Thankfully DTJ doesn’t have scandalous photos on a laptop, so we should be safe.
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They’ve been around for a decade at least. I think the difference is that predictit and betfair were more regulated. You could bet on bombing Iran, but you couldn’t bet enough to get rich by bombing Iran.
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John Oliver’s latest looks at prediction markets – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4
NSFW for language and dildoes.
Very good report.
Anyone “investing” on these sites without inside info is a chump. Too bad the world is full of chumps.
A chump and his money are soon parted.
Wow, three.
Probably thousands of insiders betting, er, “investing” in outcomes they already know.
Bots, too.
Another case of fraud in France.
On April 6, one wallet made $13,990 in profit on a stake of less than $30 after betting that the temperature in Paris would hit 21C. The account, which was opened this month, bought so-called event contracts when their price suggested the probability of a payout was just 0.2 per cent.
On April 15, when the recorded temperature jumped in a few minutes from 18C to 22C before falling back, another wallet made more than $21,000 on a stake of just $119 by betting that the temperature that day would exceed 18C, at a time when the price of the contract suggested a probability of about 0.5 per cent. On both days, trading volume on Polymarket’s “Highest temperature in Paris” market exceeded $500,000 — more than double the typical daily volume for this market.
Who is taking the other side of this bet, er, hedge investment, and why?
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