Possibility or Paranoia

[ao_fan]

NBC was also extremely conservative in calling states. I think they called Arizona yesterday. They are right there with CNN.

[ViceFleeble]

Also because law firms are responding to public pressure and bailing out - they don’t want to have the reputation of trying to play a part in these shenanigans

[dr_t_non-fan]

Then there would be no posts, because thread title.

[dr_t_non-fan]

@Lucy

Possibly most of his goal is now grifting.

Um, as was his whole presidency. No reason to stop now. And it won’t stop after his presidency is ended.

[PatientZombie]

also meaning no two states flipping can overturn the election

[SredniVashtar]

I think the current SCOTUS (including the Trump picks) is Just. If they don’t uphold democracy, nobody will. I trust the military, the legislative branch, and the people themselves far less.

That said I don’t think it’s paranoid to worry. He’s never been a very effective or motivated monster, but plenty of real people are willing to follow him to hell.

[TheMole]

@PatientZombie

That also means reversing any one state can not bring Biden below 270

Best eyes on the internet think flipping California would drop Biden well below 270. Trust me, no chance California flips.

[Indy]

Welcome, glad to have you.

[twig93]

@PatientZombie

also meaning no two states flipping can overturn the election

Well, no two that turned out to be close anyway. If 37 EVs flipped that would send it to the House/Senate, who would pick Trump/Pence.

Closest Biden states by percent:
GA (16): 0.28%
AZ (11): 0.32%
WI (10): 0.63%
PA (20): 0.93%

Every other state that Biden won he carried by more than 1%. So no, any 2 of those aren’t enough… he needs 3 of those or to flip something else where Biden had a bigger margin of victory.

[twig93]

Incidentally, I just noticed that Fox still hasn’t called GA. They’ve called everything else, but not GA. Which - to be fair - is the closest of all states / entities on a percentage basis.

[PatientZombie]

I meant of the contested states

[ao_fan]

listening to dipshit trash talk my governor right now.

[Sade]

So far the most pedantic post on this young forum.

[HelenaLake]

@dr_t_non-fan

“Protesters (aka ‘Rioters’) not wearing masks, WAAAH” is a FoxNews/OANN/QAnon thing. Now we know where HL gets her news.

No, but thanks for your poor mind-reading anyway, I guess?

[dr_t_non-fan]

So, where DO you get this claim that protesters/rioters were not wearing masks (waaah)?
Enough so to cause the “second wave”?

[HelenaLake]

@ao_fan

I’m confused by this entire conversation. why would the electoral college just not vote as they are supposed to?

@Triweasel

They will. This is just speculation about what could happen if they don’t.

The EV will vote as normal. This is fearmongering because everyone has become acclimated to a constant state of anxiety and doesn’t know what to do without it. It is, after all, 2020.

[HelenaLake]

@Sade

I think some of the people in this thread need to take their tinfoil hats off. Everything is fine. Trump lost the election by quite a few electoral votes. He’s already dropped his suit in PA, and he’ll willingly surrender power on Jan 20. He’s just trying to annoy others now because that’s what he likes to do. Can we cut the shit of the military getting involved or acting president now?

Yep yep yep.

[HelenaLake]

@dr_t_non-fan

So, where DO you get this claim that protesters/rioters were not wearing masks (waaah)?
Enough so to cause the “second wave”?

I believe I already covered that?

@HelenaLake

Hard to make a good guess. I don’t think Trump’s shenanigans would have made a lot of difference with NY at the very beginning. Maybe a little bit, but it’s hard to say.

There’s a mid-June spike in there, that is something that could probably have been avoided. I’m not sure how much of that is directly attributable to Trump though - it coincided with protests as well as several states lifting their lockdowns and opening restaurants back up. It’s possible that Trump had some influence on those state’s decisions, but ultimately is was up to the governors, and many of them are NOT Trump supporters. It’s not like he could force them to open back up.

My ballpark estimate is that perhaps 30% to 40% of the cases could have been avoided, but that would have required prohibiting protests. And I don’t think that would have been a reasonable thing to do.

@twig93

I don’t think that made much difference at all. The protests were outside and people were wearing masks. There is very little increase following protests. The case loads seem to be coming from indoor events: house parties and White House events for Amy Coney Barrett and that sort of thing.

@HelenaLake

That’s entirely possible. I saw a lot of conflicting imagery regarding the protests (and related riot/counter-riot/looting/troublemaking) as far as masks go. I saw a lot of imagery of everyone wearing masks, but i saw a lot without masks too. The protests in my area lasted just a couple of days, so everything I have is second hand.

Spikes in my area (and those of some colleagues in other states) correlated with restaurant and bar openings, definitely. Also went hand-in-hand with the peak ages for June through July dropping down to the 20-30 range instead of the 65+.

First - I realize I dropped half a thought up there, where I’ve bolded. That should have been “prevented protests and restaurants”.

Beyond that, images on the internet (notoriously unreliable) showed protestors both with and without masks. And as I said, my info is all second-hand.

[ao_fan]

@HelenaLake

The EV will vote as normal. This is fearmongering because everyone has become acclimated to a constant state of anxiety and doesn’t know what to do without it. It is, after all, 2020.

yeah, no reason to be anxious in 2020. a pandemic that killed 240k americans and debilitated many others is no big deal. not like it’s the cuban missile crisis, right HL?

[ao_fan]

@HelenaLake

Beyond that, images on the internet (notoriously unreliable) showed protestors both with and without masks. And as I said, my info is all second-hand.

then why claim it as fact that the protests caused a surge?

fact of the matter is, we had protests in late may/early june in nyc, and cases continued to decline, not increase.