NFL Survivor

Are you still alive in survivor? Starting a thread to discuss weekly picks.

For week 4, I think everyone will be all over GB v NE. I tend to try to avoid the crowd favorite, but this one is tasty. PHI v JAX will probably be the 2nd most popular. The only others with some popularity are likely LAC@HOU or DET vSEA. I’m not touching Detroit this week.

WAS has been pretty awful so I’d be a little tempted to take DAL v WAS, but that one is riskier than the others.

At the moment I am leaning LAC.

Is this the AO version of picking the loser?

Or other versions of picking the winner?

OP isn’t clear. Even with your “preference” for LAC :stuck_out_tongue:

Normal survivor where you pick the winner.

The version here where you pick the loser and get multiple strikes is an unusual format. Never encountered that elsewhere has CIN as the highest EV pick on the board this week. They are -3.5% v MIA. That’s a little surprising that a spread that small is the highest EV, but the 1.6% picked is driving that. More people are picking MIA this week than CIN. Don’t think I want to touch that

Steelers over Jets seems pretty solid, and maybe Rams over 49ers (though their recent regular season history gives me pause).

But yeah, GB over NE is a lock. I GUARANTEE IT!!!

I’m in the final 3 of 20 in my pool. Other 2 are on GB. I don’t like it. Belichick is a PITA and he will have these guys coached up.

Already used Bal, Den, Phi.
I don’t want to go LAC, but I might. I’m also thinking PIT or MIN (in London).

I’m not sure that LAC is a good choice given that one of their key defensive players is out and Herbert is likely still recovering from the rib injury . . . and they’re on the road.

As for a winner, DAL looks like the best “bet” (without looking at what Vegas is putting out).

At the moment I am on PHL as the crowd is so heavily in favor of GB. I think GB should roll, but can’t resist the chance to bet again against a pool clearing event.

While I don’t think Belichick is likely to have this lot coached up, I’m with you on trying to win it right now if you can given you know the way the others are betting.

look, I’m a huge patriots homer. But they are underperforming already and are going to play with Hoyer throwing 4 yds per attempt. GB is winning this week and the only question is do they cover the 10 points. TEN

six games this week had spreads that were opposite the win%. most weeks I may see one.

One pool I play you rank ten teams from 10 points to 1. only I had cin, and as my 6. 4 others had Mia as a 9 or 10.

pretty happy with the start

I wound up taking MIN this week. Piece of cake!

Double doink!

so the patriots covered. but watching the last two possessions in OT (new england wheezing out and GB marching down the field like it was a walk through) and i couldn’t understand how that game went to OT

So close to another pool clearing event. 4 were on GB. Only one failed by betting on PIT. Down to 7

Still alive? Who will you be picking this week?

I’d say the riskiest plays I’m considering are JAX (vHOU) and NO (vSEA). Leaning JAX at the moment, but may switch to a bigger favorite.

NE had their chance in OT after forcing a GB 3 and out and getting the ball around midfield. But the play calls were conservative. Probably the only bad thing I have to say about the NE game plan/coaching that day.

In my pool, we have 5 on BUF, one on TB, and me on JAX. Odds are very long, but I could win it all today.

Oof. Looks like I’m probably out. I think it was still the right decision to avoid BUF this week given how the field was on them, but I should have gone with my other suggestion.

I went with GB this week. Other 2 took TB and LAR. Contest is over.

Thread CLOSED!

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