fwiw, I’ve split off my mortality posts into their own section on my substack: (I just figured out how to do that)
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last of the drug overdose posts
and my twitter thread
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2790491
The largest change is in age 35-44, where I’ve been finding the largest excess mortality in general from all sorts of non-COVID causes.
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My data draw, removing the COVID alcohol-related deaths (there weren’t a huge amount, but it’s good to not muddy the waters):
What does this mean?
Died of alcohol poisoning while sick with Covid?
I suspect it means both covid and alcohol-related cause on the death certificate.
@meep , which do you think is more likely:
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those people died of covid but incidentally tested positive for alcohol in their system, or
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those people died from alcohol-related causes but incidentally tested positive for SARS-Cov2 in their system?
Ok, that makes sense.
I guess if years of alcoholism had weakened your liver and then you caught Covid you’d be more likely to die than if you caught the same strain / viral load of Covid and had a perfectly healthy liver.
i def was drinking more. assume others were too -including those who were already drinking a lot as a baseline.
It means that COVID was the underlying cause of death (aka it was the main cause of death on the death certificate) and one of the alcohol-related ICD-10 codes (and yes, I have a list) was on the contributing causes of death (remember, you can have up to 20 of those!) on the death certificate
I removed those, just to be conservative for comparisons.,
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So, all I can tell you is that COVID was listed as the UCD, and alcohol-related codes showed up somewhere in the MCDs (multiple causes of death, not the UCD).
I assume it could just be alcoholics who died of Covid. Alcoholics get to die of Covid, too, ya know.
The numbers I removed weren’t large.
As per my post, which I just posted:
The main difference is that I excluded deaths where the underlying cause of death (and there is one and only one of those per death certificate) was COVID (U07.1). This ultimately removed 1,474 COVID deaths that were alcohol-related in 2020, and 3,132 COVID deaths that were alcohol-related in 2021.
A few other graphs from that post:
The 2021 numbers are, obviously, partial & provisional. The external numbers will likely come up a lot.
Just pulled some all-cause mortality data by age group.
Then calculated rates. Then compared against 2019 rates… here’s the result
Will be pulling the COVID numbers next.
If you just want to see what the mortality rates look like (I’ll use log scale for that):
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What’s the denominator for the rates? 100k? 1M?
100K (per year)
That’s the usual way we quote mortality rates.
Yes, I’m just pulling some data and doing a few things to try different ways to graph.
I’m going to do the fits, year by year… just eyeballing, I think I’ll start w/ 20-24 age group for my fits.
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I’d be drinking too if I lived in Wyoming
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