I was thinking today, as I do rarely, that COVID might impact mortality improvements. Long covid, plus just the existence of COVID might put some drag on the assumptions normally used.
Is that a thing? Or is this a case of shut up you don’t have a clue.
COVID is making it very difficult for life actuaries to set mortality improvement assumptions, some of which are needed for PBR reserves. The SoA is struggling for the best answer.
Certainly. Anecdotally, delay of care during the pandemic may lead to an increase in mortality.
Hey GUYS!
Have I got a session at the Life Meeting for you! Live or IN PERSON!
(I will not be at the in-person event)
(I have been working on these slides, and I will be presenting at the virtual session)
Live meeting – August 23 – session 10C –
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Credits: 1.50 SOA CPD; 1.25 CIA
Competency/Skills Based Learning: Risk Management
Moderator(s): Valerie Michelle Chezem ASA,MAAA
Presenter(s): Valerie Michelle Chezem ASA,MAAA; Steven F. Cyboran, ASA, FCA, MAAA; Josh Stirling
Session Description:
Everyone is attentively watching the current excess mortality and morbidity crisis unfolding. We think it’s just the tip of the iceberg. Join our cross-industry team as we share a proprietary analysis of U.S. and global public health data digging into the underlying problems. Discover the iceberg of health problems underlying the elevated death and disability we see playing out in the bottom line. Can anything be done to slow this train? Risk mitigation strategies for insurers will be explored, with an invitation for participants to exchange ideas within the group. This will be a combination of presentation, panel, and Q&A discussion with multiple presenters including actuaries and other industry experts.
By the end of the session, attendees will understand
Country Relevance: Non-Nation Specific
Experience Level: All levels
Session Coordinator: Valerie Michelle Chezem ASA,MAAA
The Virtual Meeting:
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Credits: 1.20 SOA CPD; 1.00 CIA
Competency/Skills Based Learning: Risk Management
Moderator(s): Valerie Michelle Chezem ASA,MAAA
Presenter(s): Mary Pat Campbell FSA,MAAA; Steven F. Cyboran, ASA, FCA, MAAA; Josh Stirling; Teresa Russ Winer FSA,MAAA
Session Description:
Everyone is attentively watching the current excess mortality and morbidity crisis unfolding. We think it’s just the tip of the iceberg. Join our cross-industry team as we share a proprietary analysis of U.S. and global public health data digging into the underlying problems. Discover the iceberg of health problems underlying the elevated death and disability we see playing out in the bottom line. Can anything be done to slow this train? Risk mitigation strategies for insurers will be explored, with an invitation for participants to exchange ideas within the group. This will be a combination of presentation, panel, and Q&A discussion with multiple presenters including actuaries and other industry experts.
By the end of the session, attendees will understand
Country Relevance: Non-Nation Specific
Experience Level: All levels
Session Coordinator: Valerie Michelle Chezem ASA,MAAA
So, yes, the content will pretty much be the same.
The presenters will differ, mainly because some of us [like me] cannot travel much
Any chance it’ll be recorded and a non member will be able to watch it?
My understanding is this: yes, all sessions are recorded
The SOA has gone to a weird subscription system to get access to meeting recordings, so I don’t know how that works anymore
Separately, I will likely do a separate recording just of the mortality parts – just like I did here:
Part 1: Video: U.S. Mortality Through the Pandemic, All Causes and by Age Group, Provisional through 2022
Part 2: Video: U.S. Mortality Through the Pandemic, part 2 – Differences by State
Part 3: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 3: Major Categories of Death
Part 4: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 4: COVID
Part 5: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 5: Historical trajectories for Causes of Death 1999-2022
Part 6: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 6: Heart Disease and Cancer
Part 7: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 7: Other Physiological Causes of Death
Part 8: Video: U.S. Mortality Trends 2020-2022 part 8: External causes of death
After all, I provided all the mortality slides (except the life expectancy one)
Bump, FL vs CA
LA Times article:
So, my question, to @meep : what is the REAL difference in COVID death rates? Age-adjusted and such?
Paywalled
We can actually look at COVID death rates by age groups, ya know.
Enough people died in large states by COVID (the small states, not so much)
I have done ranking tables in the past:
That was from about a year ago. I probably updated since then, but it’s not like there were a lot more COVID deaths since last year compared to 2020 and 2021.
My Florida results:
Florida 40.6 33.6 110.2 56.4
California results:
California 40.6 34.6 98 68.7
Basically, a wash. At that point, they both averaged 40.6 for 2020-2022.
I’m not really that surprised. I haven’t even looked at the LAT article, but I assume that they’re going to say that the two states are about the same.
Key paragraphs imo:
“Our results suggest that vaccine coverage is linked to fewer COVID-19 deaths, and protective mandates and behaviors were associated with fewer infections,” the Lancet analysis said. “The states that implemented and maintained more mandates were statistically associated, on average, with higher mask use and greater vaccine coverage rates, which in turn were associated with fewer infections.”
Generally, the Lancet analysis found that poverty, lower educational attainment, higher rates of chronic health conditions, limited access to quality healthcare services and lower rates of “interpersonal trust” — trust that people have in one another — were statistically associated with worse COVID-19 mortality rates.
ARGH THE LANCET STUDY USES THE RED-YELLOW-GREEN colorblind-unfriendly scale for conditional formatting.
and I was going to critique their analysis, but HOLY SHIT THIS IS JUST AWFUL
MY EYES
DEAR LORD THEY SUCK
but also, their statistical analysis sucks. I would be embarrassed on their behalf, but I stopped that bullshit long ago.
meep, NYT says COVID still causes 1200 deaths per week in the USA. True/False/Could anyone possibly know the number??
Well, let’s check
I just did a data draw on CDC Wonder, using U07.1 as the Underlying cause of death - now, there’s a lag in reporting, but let’s check what it was at the beginning of 2023:
And this is what we have with most recent reporting (keeping in mind the lag):
1200 per week seems possible, at winter peak
