Iranian protests/revolution

It’s totally different

Not much art in Trump’s dealmaking attempts.

“Just like we knocked them out again today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” Trump said in a social media post.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/world/middleeast/iran-economy-layoffs.html
How much longer can the regime hang on?

Probably till around the midterms….

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What do you expect them to do? They aren’t exactly likely to resign due to adverse public opinion.

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Yep. And then the GOP is going to be anhilated in the Congressional mid-terms due higher gas prices and cost of living issues.

Watched a video from the 90s of a current Iranian commander teaching asymmetrical warfare against an opponent like the US to enlisted men (this was after the Iran-Iraq War. In this War the US armed Iraq (Saddam to be exact) and the Iranians knew this so they prepared for the future).

They have been planning these moves & countermoves for a very long time. They are copying the Vietnam model and its working for them.

On the other side you have Hegseth. Is anybody really surprised at the outcome?

Its always a fatal mistake to under-estimate your opponent.

The Iranian FM also got his Ph.D in the UK.

Interesting guy with a very qualified background.

Not remotely surprised they are running rings around Trump and Rubio when it comes to Diplomacy as well.

I can’t think of any example of a regime falling due to short-term (as in months) economic turmoil, but my history knowledge is not great.

I assume eventually they will turn back on the internet?

This, too.

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Given the protests that went on already, this is just another issue affecting the people - they may start up the protests again.
They probably won’t turn the internet back on, because the regime is so hated by the majority of the population. They don’t want to give them the ability to organize.
What’s more likely is that people start protesting when they have no job, no money, and no food, and then the regime starts killing civilians by the thousands yet again. All while people like Polymath blame the US and Israel for it, and talk about how amazing the Iranian government is.

Link? I have heard zero people doing this.

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Polymath has placed blame on US and Isreal. And often times with good reason.

Can you point to even one instance where he’s supported the Iran Government?

Just because you think the USA and Isreal have acted like dicks at times, doesn’t mean you think their enemies are the bees knees.

I can’t speak for Polymath, but a lot of times in some of these conflicts between Isreal/Palestine/Lebenon/Iran or US/Iran there really hasn’t been a good guy on either side. Just degrees of who is worse.

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More like a race to the bottom of that barrel . . .

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Seems like you answered your question about how long the regime is likely to hang on,

Turning off the internet for a week, while killing lots of people, makes some obvious sense.

Turning it off for months or years during a war with the West doesn’t really make much sense to me.

In this case, the US and Israel deserve blame if they lose. Which so far they seem to be doing, but who knows. Winning the “war on terror” is never easy.

I suspect that the war on terror often ends up being the war on groups that aren’t going along with my foreign policy goals.

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Meanwhile, inventories are being drained at a very rapid clip while Hormuz remains mostly closed.

FT Alphaville with a bit of humour… :slight_smile:

And some inflation and cost analysis…



3 R senators break ranks to limit Trump’s war powers. But Fetterman voted against so failed by 1.