Innumeracy

Technically, it’s still accurate . . . but still funny

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Jerry and Marge go large is a 2022 movie (67% on Rotten Tomatoes) about retirees who realize that under certain circumstances they can profit from the mass-purchasing of lottery tickets. But it didn’t sound like the script writers knew much math…

@17:01 “If you take a coin and you flipped a coin 1,000 times you might still get 60% heads. But if you flipped it 5,000 times the probability gets closer to 50%”

The principle in the second statement is true, but red warning sirens went off in my head regarding the first statement. If we do a binomial approximation of the normal distribution with no continuity correction 1,000 coin flips would have X heads where X is normal with mean 500 and std dev 15.81 and managing 600 heads has a Z score of +6.32. Excel tells me that the word “might” relating to 60% is true in the sense that you could get 600 heads about every 1 in 7.875 billion attempts.

There were several other cringeworthy math statements. A charming one-watch.

In real life they won spent $26M and profited $8M

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You will never get this, la la la la la.

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