Inflation, "great resignation," and 2022 merit increases

What are your predictions for average 2022 merit raises? 3%, or will some companies bump it up to try to retain talent and/or acknowledge higher-than-normal inflation?

I think we had a thread on this already?

I don’t imagine the merit raises will go up significantly, certainly not going to be on par with the CPI inflation. I might buy a property in the next couple months to hedge against hyperinflation.

Sorry, I must have missed it!

I think the merit raises will go up in 2023 though, once people know that inflation is here to stay. Right now the fed still thinks it’s just a blip.

I think companies will still hit “regular” merit raises. The value you might have as a quality employee amid the great resignation will only arrive (imo) if you shop and look elsewhere.

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My company has avoided calling them “merit” raises because that implies great work gets a higher raise. They like to say they are meant to keep pace with inflation, and promotions are meant to be more for merit. And that was a fine excuse when inflation was around 2% and annual raises for the most valuable employees were around 2.25%

My guess is that they’ll be spinning that story differently this year because I guarantee no one is getting a 6% raise.


You can get a 6% raise by moving jobs. Service workers are apparently doing it en masse.
Just saying. Getting a sub inflation raise is as good a reason as any to start shopping.

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No plans to leave my job currently, and I am paid pretty competitively. Just fun to speculate whether there will be a welcome surprise in the spring. Probably not, but seems more likely than in prior years that at least some companies could strategically bump up their compensation budgets a bit.

Here one could easily get 10-15% by changing jobs (with at least 5 years of experience).

I’m very happy in my current job so have no reason to leave but my employers position that there is “no need to give inflation as an increase because of cost savings from working from home” concerns (but doesn’t surprise) me. I suspect I may have to be conducting interviews shortly after increases/bonuses are paid out.

I’m expecting my company to give their same crappy 0-3% increase this year with the same excuse that “our budget for next year is expecting declining membership and profits so we need to tighten our belts.” This is the same message it’s been for the last 14 years or so while each year has seen record profits.


and you’re still there?!

Yes. They’ve timed my increases perfectly to keep me or I’ve found new positions inside the company at the salary I want when they let me get behind where I should be. I’ve received better than the company average over the years on the average and more than exceeded inflation. That keeps me content when I have a good boss and I don’t mind the work.

The work from home argument is garbage and any company making that point isn’t negotiating in good faith. Having less need for office space should result in reduced expenses for the company, which should free up money to make salaries more competitive. If it’s not, then something is being mismanaged.

Employers should (but I expect most won’t) be giving a larger salary increase next year. There are some employers who will recognize this, and I think the pay gap between those who’ve stayed at their company long-term despite lackluster raises and those who’ve flocked to higher paying employers will grow tremendously by 2023.


I’ll view anything less than 5% as a pay cut.

OTOH I may be in line for a modest promotion. I could see a 10% merged raise where they don’t separate ‘merit’ from ‘promotion’ raises.

well I already jumped ship this year with more than 6% increase in pay. So I can’t complain.

Don’t have so little faith in yourself.


Got promoted last year (10% jump) and this year (15% jump). I could jump ship now for another 15%-20% raise and get another new title. Not sure it’s worth it though as my current team is awesome. My problem right now is getting my other star paid. He is severely underpaid and due to corporate beuracracy stuff I am a bit hamstrung on promoting him or giving him a raise.

You guys are great, but I’d dust you all for a 20% pay increase. The next team is just as great and it pays 20% more.

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Yeah, loyalty means jack shit. If you hate your next team, jump ship again until you find an even better team than your current one with a 50% raise.

Don’t be a pleb.

I dunno. I made a jump once for a big pay increase and the team was terrible and I was so miserable doing the same work I was doing before. Team culture is like…50% of the equation for me. Enjoying my work is another 45%, and the last 5% is everything else, pay included.

More money is only nice until you settle into it. Then you’re unhappy and looking again. That works for a lot of people, but I’m not one of them.