Inflation, "great resignation," and 2022 merit increases

What are your predictions for average 2022 merit raises? 3%, or will some companies bump it up to try to retain talent and/or acknowledge higher-than-normal inflation?

I think we had a thread on this already?

I donā€™t imagine the merit raises will go up significantly, certainly not going to be on par with the CPI inflation. I might buy a property in the next couple months to hedge against hyperinflation.

Sorry, I must have missed it!

I think the merit raises will go up in 2023 though, once people know that inflation is here to stay. Right now the fed still thinks itā€™s just a blip.

I think companies will still hit ā€œregularā€ merit raises. The value you might have as a quality employee amid the great resignation will only arrive (imo) if you shop and look elsewhere.

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My company has avoided calling them ā€œmeritā€ raises because that implies great work gets a higher raise. They like to say they are meant to keep pace with inflation, and promotions are meant to be more for merit. And that was a fine excuse when inflation was around 2% and annual raises for the most valuable employees were around 2.25%

My guess is that theyā€™ll be spinning that story differently this year because I guarantee no one is getting a 6% raise.

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You can get a 6% raise by moving jobs. Service workers are apparently doing it en masse.
Just saying. Getting a sub inflation raise is as good a reason as any to start shopping.

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No plans to leave my job currently, and I am paid pretty competitively. Just fun to speculate whether there will be a welcome surprise in the spring. Probably not, but seems more likely than in prior years that at least some companies could strategically bump up their compensation budgets a bit.

Here one could easily get 10-15% by changing jobs (with at least 5 years of experience).

Iā€™m very happy in my current job so have no reason to leave but my employers position that there is ā€œno need to give inflation as an increase because of cost savings from working from homeā€ concerns (but doesnā€™t surprise) me. I suspect I may have to be conducting interviews shortly after increases/bonuses are paid out.

Iā€™m expecting my company to give their same crappy 0-3% increase this year with the same excuse that ā€œour budget for next year is expecting declining membership and profits so we need to tighten our belts.ā€ This is the same message itā€™s been for the last 14 years or so while each year has seen record profits.

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and youā€™re still there?!

Yes. Theyā€™ve timed my increases perfectly to keep me or Iā€™ve found new positions inside the company at the salary I want when they let me get behind where I should be. Iā€™ve received better than the company average over the years on the average and more than exceeded inflation. That keeps me content when I have a good boss and I donā€™t mind the work.

The work from home argument is garbage and any company making that point isnā€™t negotiating in good faith. Having less need for office space should result in reduced expenses for the company, which should free up money to make salaries more competitive. If itā€™s not, then something is being mismanaged.

Employers should (but I expect most wonā€™t) be giving a larger salary increase next year. There are some employers who will recognize this, and I think the pay gap between those whoā€™ve stayed at their company long-term despite lackluster raises and those whoā€™ve flocked to higher paying employers will grow tremendously by 2023.

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Iā€™ll view anything less than 5% as a pay cut.

OTOH I may be in line for a modest promotion. I could see a 10% merged raise where they donā€™t separate ā€˜meritā€™ from ā€˜promotionā€™ raises.

well I already jumped ship this year with more than 6% increase in pay. So I canā€™t complain.

Donā€™t have so little faith in yourself.

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Got promoted last year (10% jump) and this year (15% jump). I could jump ship now for another 15%-20% raise and get another new title. Not sure itā€™s worth it though as my current team is awesome. My problem right now is getting my other star paid. He is severely underpaid and due to corporate beuracracy stuff I am a bit hamstrung on promoting him or giving him a raise.

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You guys are great, but Iā€™d dust you all for a 20% pay increase. The next team is just as great and it pays 20% more.

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Yeah, loyalty means jack shit. If you hate your next team, jump ship again until you find an even better team than your current one with a 50% raise.

Donā€™t be a pleb.

I dunno. I made a jump once for a big pay increase and the team was terrible and I was so miserable doing the same work I was doing before. Team culture is likeā€¦50% of the equation for me. Enjoying my work is another 45%, and the last 5% is everything else, pay included.

More money is only nice until you settle into it. Then youā€™re unhappy and looking again. That works for a lot of people, but Iā€™m not one of them.

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