2024 is already showing some ominous signs that hurricane season could be particularly ugly.
The Atlantic and Gulf are historically hot now, with some areas 5-8°C hotter than normal. The Florida keys and Bahamas went under coral bleaching warning in May.
Prognosticators think we will flip to La Niña conditions before peak hurricane season. Historically that means big decreases in wind shear, increasing storm frequency.
Hoping the big ones all turn out to sea.
2023 was the 4th most active season on record in spite of entering El Nino this time last year. It had 20 names storms.
Damnit climate, I don’t have time for your shenanigans this year!
Its La Niña time now. And its not looking good.
Probably going to be one of the more extreme ones as well.
La Niña switch expected to fuel extreme weather later this year - La Niña switch expected to fuel extreme weather later this year via @FT
Jamaica and the Caymans look to be right in it’s path. Should calm down a little before hitting the Yucatan. I don’t recall the last major storm to hit Jamaica head on.
huh, the last hurricane to hit Jamaica was… Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
The last Category 3+ to hit Jamaica was Dean in 2007.
Debby might not be a very big wind event, but this looks like it could be a devastating flood event on the southeast coast.
Amusing headline–
The Weather Channel
Debby Dropping Feet Of Rain On Southeast Coast
Helene could hit major storm status, but even if it doesn’t it looks like a big rain event. Forecast is calling for 4-10 inches of rain from Helene in northern GA
That seems like a lot of rain, though maybe it is confined only to NoGa (that’s what the locals call it, right?)?
That’s what Senator John Blutarsky called it in college.
Before he became a senator.
So, is that a lot or what? How much per day/hour/whatever?
I mean, where I live, we get 15" or so per year.
Of course, it all happens in a three-day span.
Yes, that’s a lot. For my location, right now weather underground is forecasting 4 inches tomorrow and 5 Thursday. That will cause flooding in low lying areas. 4 inches is a lot in a day here but very manageable, but 5 inches the following day after the ground is saturated and rivers are running high will be a problem.
Atlanta gets a fair amount of annual rainfall, but mostly in increments of 1-2 inches. Atlanta gets more annual rainfall than Seattle, but in much fewer rainy days.
Looks like that’s the modeled rain totals for a week.
Atlanta gets on average 50 inches of rain a year. Monthly average for September is 3.8, and for October 3.2.
It’ll be a memorable rainfall, and there will be some flooding… but it won’t be the first tropical system to dump a lot of rain in the area.
The truly catastrophic flooding comes from slower-moving (or stalled-out) big tropical systems, which can dump 2-3 feet of rain (with locally higher amounts) over 3+ days.
There is also a lot of variance regarding the path and speed of the hurricane before and after landfall. It’s one possible scenario.
