Global Warming

The reduced food production will impact us all.

My city seems to be in a weird weather vortex. Of the 107 years that they have records, only 3 of the hottest 10 years were in the 21st century. If they were distributed randomly you’d expect 2.15 of them to be, so no material difference from random fluctuation.

The second hottest year on record is 1921, and the third hottest is 1931.

Granted, we seem to be an outlier worldwide. But it seems like I’ve picked a good corner of the planet in which to ride out global warming.

The flipside of this is that “other people” will make the same determination.

So you can fully expect many more thousands of people to move to your area over the next 10 years.

Thats the issue most people miss:

The mass scale immigration that will be the consequence of climate change. Its going to cause massive pressures on existing infrastructure, which will no doubt lead to conflicts.

yay! we already have half of it.

We’re feeling this already. Over a 10-year period, the US population grew 7.7%.

I’m in a climate haven and a tourism destination to boot. In 2020-2021 one of our counties in particular attracted wealthy WFH Millennials fleeing both high prices and climate from FL and CA. Compared to that 7.7% the county grew 10.7% and is projected to have increasing growth in the future.

We’re absolutely bracing for our housing market to remain higher than average and navigating what a heavy WFH workforce will look like in our smallish town.

The homeless population is observably getting worse. The harsh winters used to encourage many to head south for winter. Now that we’re not getting very cold, the population is burgeoning. The general housing market isn’t helping either.

1.5C threshold has now officially been breached.

In 2024.

Critical 1.5C threshold breached over 12-month period for first time - Critical 1.5C threshold breached over 12-month period for first time via @FT

Does El Nino count?

Afaik, 1.5C an arbitrary goal included in the Paris Accords, and they include wiggle-room. And really it’s just up to you whether you care about that.

That said, it has been a damn hot year. Enough that we have to wonder how much exactly is nino.

Yes. El Niño counts.

They have been feeling the effect in Brazil big time these past few months. Heat and humidity are much higher than normal, and this has caused an outbreak of Dengue. Even for Brazilians, the climate has become oppresive.

I am concerned because the current trajectory looks to be about 2.5C, which will be catastrophic for the world.
Think about how many people will be headed for US/Canada/Europe due to climate change effects.

Immigration in the US and Europe is already a huge political problem, which will be materially destabilised when the temperatures keep increasing and migration flows increase. Thats how military conflicts start.

1.5C is not “arbitrary”.

Over 1.5C is when you start destabilising the north atlantic current. Its a tipping point.

And if that current “shifts”, the effects will be incredibly damaging for food production in Europe (which would then create even larger problems).

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I dunno, the 1.5 being breached because of El Nino seems less immediately dire than if the same record was set without it. Not that it changes much since it was headed that way in the next few years regardless. Just not sure we are fully “there” yet.

No. Nothing about that article says that the AMOC has a 1.5C tipping point.

The article talks about a recent study that says the AMOC might collapse this century. That study is speculative and goes against the latest IPCC. It doesn’t say anything about 1.5C, and really isn’t interested in global temperature data at all, it’s just looking at growing deviations. We also don’t really know wtf will happen if the AMOC slows anyway, most notably it will probably cause some cooling.

Separately, your article has a link to tipping points associated with temperature estimations. I’d recommend just reading the wikipedia because that article kind of sucks.

There are a couple “tipping points” that vaguely average 1.5 c, but they aren’t at all precise, and mostly will actually take centuries.

That study is not speculative. It is based on hard research.

The issue with “tipping points” is that they are by definition irreversible. You cannot pass them and then claim “oops” as a group, as the domino of climate changes will materially accelerate, and be impossible for us to stop (as we do not have the technology to do so).

Here is another article. I expect many more of these to come given that we are now at the tails of the climate damage distribution, and the effects here become non-linear and magnified (thus much harder to mitigate given their speed).

With respect to global warming, we do seem to be reaching a point similar to where we were last november, 2020, with respect to the US presidential election: hoping to fall in the right place under the margins of error.

my hope is that things do not go as badly as some of those studies say they might go. hope is not the best strategy for safety, but increasingly it seems to be what we have got.

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My current base case is that I don’t think the world will react in time.

When you get right down to it, the world is addicted to cheap energy, and the transition to renewables will make the energy more expensive (so the general price level foor goods & services will increase) due to its intermittent nature which necessitates investment into upgraded infrastructure to accomodate this.

Nobody wants to give up a portion of their standard of living. Not the developed countries, and definitely not the developing countries. So nobody is really giving an inch due to cost of living issues while time keeps passing while fossil fuels are burned.

My prediction is that we reach 2.5C warming, so I am making plans with that in mind. Obviously, you cannot outrun some climate change effects, but you can pick a country that will be less affected by the various risks that will hit the world when heating starts getting over 2C.

I personally don’t know what else to do other than individually adopt pro-environment behavior (recycle as much as I can and be less wasteful), teach it to our little one (for the next generation) because the global scenario resembles a slow motion car crash at this point.


I’m in the same boat. I happen to live in an excellent area, both a good state and a good place within, for climate change. We don’t get many hurricane or giant convective storms or hail or tornadoes. I anticipate my area becoming even more desirable even during my lifetime, but certainly over the next couple hundred years.

I’ve felt like that. I live in the upper Midwest, it seemed that many of the climate change impacts aren’t very relevant to us.

But, last summer’s drought and this winter’s unusually warm temperatures with no snow are beginning to worry me.

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Oh, we’ll get snow eventually. It’ll just tend more toward warm winter/little to no snow but sporadically Deep Frost.