The Four Futures:
Scenario 1 — Doomsday
The most discomforting scenario for actuaries, and many professions, is that they will cease to exist in their present form.
Scenario 2 — Groundhog Day
A more status quo scenario is that the nature and number of actuarial jobs remains about the same.
Scenario 3 — Training Day
A third scenario involves the actuarial role transforming into something more like what data scientists do.
Scenario 4 — Judgment Day
In our final scenario, actuaries would pivot in more of a social science than a data science direction in response to AI.