Federal Reserve / FOMC Watch

75 bps

I was hoping for 100 bps


A 50 bp increase at the 09/21 meeting seems certain. There’s about a 15% chance of a 75 bp jump.

Since there will be 2 CPI reports before then, I imagine those results will have a significant affect on the size of the rate increase.

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Another 0.75% bump.

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when is the next meeting/expected rate change?

November 1/2 and December 13/14. Rate is now 3.125% some policy makers think 4.4% by year end so could be another 0.75 at next meeting and 0.5 at the one after. Who knows for sure.

That is what I have seen projected.

Gas by me is down to 3.89 at Sam’s Club and Costco with a couple others at 3.99 but most still over $4.

I don’t think they are getting inflation down to where they want it and will continue to raise rates until they see some better results which will be too late and the recession will be deeper than it will need to be.

I would like to see them do 0.5% in Nov then skip an increase in Dec. then see what things look like at the end of January.

What is normal for you? Most places near me are <$3.

I cant remember a time when the fed took such drastic tightening measures so quickly. In my lifetime at least.

We used to be in the bottom half of the country pricewise but we have crept up over the years and are not in the top half with regularity. Here is a graph of the last 10 years. My history of watching gas prices goes back nearly 5 decades.


Historically, they were rarely starting at zero.

94-95 - 2.75% increase in a year
04-06 - 4.00% increase over 2 years.

This year’s ~3% increase in 6 months is pretty steep, at least going back to 1990.

Future markets think 50-75 + at next meeting and 25-50+ at the next on to get to ~4.25.
Yes, who knows for sure.

I recall the big increase in 04-06- but that seems like a totally backwards situation from where we are now.

Increasing rates used to be for cooling off a hot economy… but usually things were going well.

I dont recall a time when we were already in a recession (or whatever) and rates needed to get jacked. I recall rates getting cut for recessions to ease the pain, not rates going up.

Pretty sure 94-95 was recession time. “It’s the economy, stupid” kind of got George HW Bush unelected. But that was some time ago and the start of my working career. I do recall some folks worried about Trump pushing to keep free money flowing in boom times was going to come back to bite us in the ass, but I don’t think this predictions factored in a once in a century pandemic and it’s impacts of life in general and the economy in specific.

Did you mean 91-92 or 92-93? Clinton was elected in Nov 92.

OH yeah. 94 was the Contract on America congress.

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almost comical that GOP rolled out its ‘Commitment to America’ yesterday…maybe 4 hours after your post. when in doubt, go with what you know.

The futures markets are gyrating this week like a squirrel in a nut store, with lots of activity but no clear direction. up down up down up and down again.

Right now, it appears they’re 50-50 on a 25bp increase at the 03/22 meeting. Then, if they do increase, there’s a 50-50 chance they’ll decrease it 25bp at the 05/03 meeting…and it’s all downhill after that…around 3% by the end of 2024.