What is the purpose of the ballast in the NCCI xs formula?
Reaching back here … it’s intended to dampen the impact of the expected and actual losses. Think of k in the credibility formula p / (p+k).
1 Like
Have there been any syllabus changes between the Fall 2024 sitting and the Fall 2025 sitting?
The ballast provides stability by limiting the impact of any single loss on the mod
1 Like
Thank you both for the explanation and there is another GLM paper on the syllabus. It is on Lasso regression and is as long as the original GLM paper.
Another way that I preferred was that the formula you show is just a re-parameterization of:
[Z_p*A_p + (1-Z_p)E_p + Z_eA_e + (1-Z_e)*E_e] / E
And w and B are given by Z_p = E/(E+B) and w = Z_e/Z_p
So w and B are just different parameterizations of the credibility assigned to the primary & excess layers. Werner Modlin pg 295 covers this - can’t remember if it is in the IRR paper explicitly or not
1 Like
I have seen the version that you mentioned before so it makes sense that it was elsewhere on the exams.
I’m looking at the 2024 vs 2025 Content Outlines and don’t see any new readings. On both, the GLM paper is Goldburg et al “Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Rating” Chapters 1-10. When I compare back to the 2023 syllabus, its the same paper but only chapters 1-9. Is the new paper you’re referring to just an additional chapter of the same paper?
Nevermind. I see that the new papers are Holmes & Casotto and ASOP 25. Thanks all!
What’s the recommended order to attack the papers? I’m thinking GLM / Holmes-Castillo, then Fisher, then some order of the rest with liberal amounts of those 3 named sprinkled in for good measure.
After Fisher, I would look at Bailey & Simon, Couret & Venter, then Bahnemann.
1 Like
Do we have somewhere around here a primer on the Pearson environment? What to know, what’s different from Excel, functions, workarounds, how much time you should spend getting acquainted with it before you go waltz in to take an exam?
most functions are the same, main thing to know is that hot keys do not work; so no F4 to lock cell references. Also not ctrl+arrow key to go to the end of the selection.
Here is a link to where you can find a list of formulas that work in the pearson environment and their excel and google sheets equivalents. They also have sample questions so that you can get a feel for what it is like to answer questions in the pearson enviorment.
https://home.pearsonvue.com/cas
1 Like
“You will receive an Authorization to Test (ATT) from Pearson VUE within 5 business days.”
No, I did not. I know, this is a complete shock to anyone familiar with the relationship between Pearson and the CAS. Or, the CAS testing process in general.
The test window: October 14-20. Again, this is going to come as a [not] complete shock, but there are no seats anywhere for October 20. Why bother having a testing window that includes a day that no test times are available at all. Also, if the only test times available are 8a to 12:30pm - I’ve seen exactly one place where 12:30pm - 4:45pm is available, and it’s in the freaking middle of nowhere that you’d say wow, I’d be shocked to find out an actuary is within 150 miles of there - just say “your test will be from 8am - 12:30pm” instead of offering a false promise that candidates can take the test at some other time.
I would email with Pearson since I have never had this problem. Another thing is that the CAS guarantees a testing center within 150 miles from your home and good luck finding anything that you actually like.
1 Like
I can see if I go through the CAS portal to Pearson that I can sign up for an exam. The point here is that (1) someone who isn’t proactive and is waiting for an ATT could be waiting forever and have to scramble late to find a spot, and (2) it does no good to say there’s a 7-day test window when at least one day [really 2 - because I doubt anywhere is open Sunday, and I definitely don’t see anyone offering a Sunday option] isn’t available.
It’s 2025, this process has been in place for … however long. The fact that simple things like this still can’t get ironed out is infuriating.
1 Like
Are we expected to have the formulas for the Pareto and Lognormal distributions memorized, or will they be provided on some reference sheet with the exam?
According to the tables here you do not although I would expect for the lognormal the CAS would give you the distribution. As an aside, excel has a lognormal function.
1 Like