I found 2016 to be about on par with 2011-2015, but it definitely tested Shapland a lot more heavily.
I still have 2017-2019 to do and only 13 more days until I sit. I took the day off today, so I’ll probably work through 2017 in a bit. At this point the only points I’m getting off on the past exams I’m doing are from qualitative questions, so I feel really good. I’m just ready to get this over with and shift my focus towards 9.
So far I’m really annoyed that we have to study Brehm. It just feels like a really long broker white paper meant to attract clients rather than a useful practitioner’s guide for ERM. We’ll see if it gets better after chapter 2.
Just finished 2017. Calculation questions seemed ok - no surprise; The qualitative questions were a bit more in-depth than older exams. I used Casual Fellow (really like it) and never read the source. The exam questions asked something that I read in CF but couldn’t recall or recognize because it’s so not material (remind me of 6). Also, the sample solutions defined some answers as not “meaningful” - those answers were actually from people who used CF I think, meaning to get the full credit, you’d read the source. This part makes me a bit nervous.
another topic - just read the thread from CAS general section - people are worried that Pearson centers will close. oh boy…
I feel like I’ve seen this amp guy and this Skol guy somewhere
Doubling up isn’t easy and I’m scrambling a bit now. My worst fear is though, that my state will reinstate lockdown on non-essential activities and Prometric will be forced to shut down. The case trend is not looking good rn.
What are the chances for option pricing being tested again for company valuation? Too many formulas to memorize already and black scholes is another long ass one.
This is my biggest fear too. I’m guessing there won’t be more than a mandatory mask mandate that’s more strictly enforced but you never know.
I’m memorizing the list from Goldfarb: Abandonment, Expansion, Contraction, Option to defer, Option to extend, but not memorizing any formulas for these.
Are you memorizing the SE® calculations from Mack 94? I feel like that’s bound to be tested some day, but just haven’t seen it in exams. Or it could be there, I haven’t gone through all the past exams.
I learned the formula for calculating the S.E. of reserves for a single AY. I know he gives a formula for the S.E. of reserves for the whole triangle but that one seems too complicated to be on an exam.
The S.E. of reserves for a given AY was tested once in 2011. I learned it since my strategy is to just learn literally every calculation on the 2011-2019 sittings. I don’t know the calculation for the alphas though since that hasn’t been tested to my knowledge. (Still haven’t done the 2019 sitting yet).
Our strategies are similar.
I did manage to memorize the alpha^2 but my head is on the verge of explosion, and there are many areas I haven’t grasped well. So, debating if I should let these ones fade out of memory to make space for others…
I seem to remember there was a past question on Alpha(I-1)^2. It isn’t a direct test on formula, but since then I thought it was fair game.
Super random question, what does the “*” mean from Shapland in the following formula?
q’(w,d) = r*(abs(m))^.5 + m
It means that value came from a bootstrap sample.
Dang, exekias beat me to it, I made an account just to answer Skol!
Yes, I think it’s saying it’s a sampled residual that may have come from any cell, not necessarily the cell it ended up in when bootstrap sampling.
I had a small mental boom since I don’t remember seeing the abs() in the formula. Then quickly flipped through the manual and see that it is from the neg. inc. section. Whew
Glad I found you guys!!
For short answer/long answer questions, where do you wrap the text at? I type for about 15 words before changing line but was wondering if there may be a more elegant solution.
I feel I need to know the graders screen resolution.