Blame this thread for all that obsession!
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i feel this. i get the brain looping through figures like these and there are times where i am too fixated
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I spent the weekend looking for a cruising catamaran near me. I am neither a qualified sailor or any sorts, nor near a financial position where it would be reasonable to execute said purchase. Yet…the anti-grind beckons.
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I’ve heard the two happiest days in a boat owner’s life are the day they buy the boat and the day they sell it.
I’ve also heard boats are holes in the water you throw your money into. Thus I still get my thrills on the whimsies of a theoretical almost boat owner instead.
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Sounds like Elon Musk thinks the people in this thread are needlessly wasting their effort on this saving for retirement thing….
Not sure I’d agree with him on that. He seems to think labour will be infinite, but I note he doesn’t seem to comment on energy. A lot of seniors here struggle to pay their heating bills and complain a lot about gas prices.
You’re suspicious when a billionaire tells you he’s going to start giving you everything you need for free? I’m sure he has all the money he needs and isn’t interested in more. Yep.
The guy whose demanding a trillion dollar payment from his company?
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it’s an acronym for Bring Out Another Thousand
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So he can give it to the people! Any day now, I’m sure.
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Just like the self-driving car.
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I am glad to hear there are people who do this in addition to myself.
You are not alone.
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I’m playing around with the free tool at Boldin. You can put in your accounts by type, and it will estimate taxes and all of that. It’s giving me a 92% chance of success (not running out of assets one day) if I retire at 50. An annual subscription is $144 to unlock the full tool. I think it will import in all your financials and seems like you could put in quite a lot of detail on just about everything.
Anyone else come across this? Seems like it could be worth it if you are starting serious thoughts about retirement.
It’s projecting my expenses to be a 2.96% withdrawal rate at retirement, so lower than the “4% rule” so surprised its not 100% success.
AI Overview
Boldin’s retirement calculator is more conservative than the 4% rule because it uses Monte Carlo simulations to test thousands of potential market scenarios, including worst-case scenarios, rather than relying solely on historical averages. It often assumes lower market growth/higher inflation by default and explicitly accounts for taxes and investment fees, which the traditional 4% rule ignores. [1, 2, 3]
Key reasons for the conservative approach:
- Monte Carlo Analysis: Boldin simulates different economic scenarios, focusing on ensuring portfolio longevity rather than just calculating a fixed withdrawal percentage.
- Taxes and Fees: Unlike the 4% rule, which is often applied to the gross portfolio, Boldin’s calculations account for tax drag and investment expenses, reducing the net spendable amount.
- Default Conservative Assumptions: Free versions of the tool may default to pessimistic assumptions, such as lower growth and higher inflation, to encourage building a “safe” plan.
- Longer Time Horizons: The 4% rule is designed for a 30-year retirement. If a user inputs a longer retirement period (e.g., 35–40+ years), Boldin will automatically produce a lower safe withdrawal rate to accommodate the extended duration. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Note: While the 4% rule is often viewed as a standard, Bill Bengen—the creator of the rule—has argued that 4% is actually quite conservative and that a 4.7% rate or higher is often safe. [1]
$70K => 99% chance of success but if I succeed I’ll have over $15M left over!?!?
$76K => 96% => $14M
$88K => 86% => $11M
$100K => 73% => $9M
(Living to 90/95 = 35-40 yr retirement, no additional income)
Right, it really highlights the idea that most people like us will never spend their retirement savings. We plan in a way that avoids ruin, but leaves a huge sum of money in the median scenario. I was ending up with between 27M and 40M in net worth when I’m 87.
$115k > 92% > 31M is where I ended up.
Retire today: $115k > 57%> 9M.
Wouldn’t you reset expectations every so often if the only goal is to avoid ruin?
Spending could be adjusted somewhat - new car purchases deferred, or downsizing a house earlier than expected. I find those somewhat uncomfortable to think about though. When I quit work, I want to be done, regret free. Our time in the past gets discounted relative to the time now - so a year of extra work to pad things is easily forgotten.
Perhaps a year is not so noticeable but if one delays retirement by several years the body may get too old to enjoy vacation activities or other physical activities. The knees may be too old to get up those steps to that ancient ruin or one just doesn’t have the stamina to make a multi-day hiking trip anymore. Or you may miss out on spending more time with the grandkids while you’re still relatively spry.
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