For age 45-74
Those are interesting first humps: the younger age groups differ from the older age groups (the second humps match up, though). Is there an explanation for this?
ETA: Wait, Iām watching and the younger ages have first humps equal, but a middle hump where there is not one with the older age groups.
ETA: Ah, that middle hump in Texas is notable.
ETA: Iāve seen other charts like this that overlay government actions, like closing stuff and reopening stuff.
Great video!
Thanks ā you will be seeing a very different pattern for those under age 45 when I post that video tomorrow.
Under age 45:
very short: no excess mortality for under age 25
Lots of excess mortality (percentage-wise) for 25 -44, no spikes, unlike the old folks.
Todayās post:
Are the percentage excesses for the 25-up roughly the same?
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Asking for a friend.
No. But I will be doing this in my next post (after I announce my new website, which is separate)
So, way more old Hispanics and Blacks??
Yes, I think weāll need each of the three major races by age bands by date,
In 3-D!
(/r)
A video:
Yeah, Iām thinking of the approach.
I prefer small multiples to 3d.
Iām looking forward to your next video. Iāve been watching the racial/ethnicity number of deaths and the humps/patterns vary greatly by and within each state. It almost seems like the 3 humps in the number of deaths we see on a national basis are really the aggregation of different patterns. Some states saw a spring spike, no summer hump and then a winter hump, others no spring spike and then summer & winter humps, some just a spring spike. And the patterns within each state also seem to also vary by racial/ethnicity.
Iām wondering what is not getting reflected in the number of deaths.
Possible causes? as you mention population size, migration. Other reasons: lock-down approach, changes in community behavior, weather, ??
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I think a big driver is weather (and places, like the subway, where people can spread disease rapidly).
Some of the lockdown rules may effect, but weather is really big ā are people sitting in rooms together with dry air being pushed around? Thereās only so much spacing out people can do when itās either too hot or too cold for people to stay outside. The summer wave was all in the south (hot!) and the fall/winter one hit upper midwest hard
Iāve seen a huge geographic connection ā if nothing else, itās tough to keep people from moving around. As an example, while I havenāt been going all the way to Hartford from Westchester, I go to Danbury at least once a week for shopping. I could stay entirely within NY for shopping, of course, but the closest Trader Joeās is in Danbury.
Thereās definitely a geographic connection. The spring spike was strongly regional to the northeast (MA, NYC, NJ, PA(Philly)). The Summer hump seemed to be in the southern climates. What puzzles me are the sometimes dissimilar patterns of the 3 major racial/ethnic groups within a state (especially with the Winter Hump). That would seem to negate the influence of weather, lock-downs. It makes me think of community response (wearing masks, social distancing) Itās all very puzzling right now but Iām sure some epidemiologists will be studying it for years to come.
I think the age distribution differences may have a huge differenceā¦ as well as exposure through jobs (Iām thinking Hispanics in Texas, for instance).
I need to see what I can build for state, age, and race/ethnicity visualizations to see if we can get at it better.
Do it by state, using a US map!! That should be easy to read! And 4-D!!!
Quote from 2007:
āRecent polls have shown a fifth of Americans canāt locate the U.S. on a world map. Why do you think this is?ā
I personally believe that U.S. Americans are unable to do so because, uh, some, uh, people out there in our nation donāt have mapsā¦
And the Iraq, like, such as.