Excess mortality in 2020:
What is āContinued UI claims/25000ā?
This made the news up here in Canada. I guess the policy is theyāll vaccinate anyone over 65, first come first serve. So the Canadians that are currently wintering in florida (and they shouldnāt be) are lined up for vaccinations. And now some canadian seniors are planning on going to Florida for a month or so just to get vaccinated.
Added: Thereās also a media firestorm in Canada right now. A bunch of entitled politicians went on international vacations over the break, and got busted. One politician even had pics and videos pre-recorded showing him in front of a fire place talking about the pandemic and all the kumbaya stuff. Posted that while he was on a beach in Mexico. While they canāt be removed as politicians until the next election, they are uniformly getting removed from every appointment they had. Itās a bit of a witch hunt, but one Iām willing to get behind.
I assumed that meant āUnemployment Insuranceā. Not an unreasonable proxy for one driver of suicide.
(yes, UI = unemployment insurance claims)
2.5 Million Person-Years of Life Have Been Lost Due to COVID-19 in the United States
View ORCID ProfileStephen J. Elledge
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.18.20214783
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by tens of millions of SARS-CoV-2 infections world-wide, has resulted in considerable levels of mortality and morbidity. The United States has been hit particularly hard having 20 percent of the worldās infections but only 4 percent of the world population. Unfortunately, significant levels of misunderstanding exist about the severity of the disease and its lethality. As COVID-19 disproportionally impacts elderly populations, the false impression that the impact on society of these deaths is minimal may be conveyed by some because elderly individuals are closer to a natural death. To assess the impact of COVID-19 in the US, I have performed calculations of person-years of life lost as a result of 194,000 premature deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 infection as of early October, 2020. By combining actuarial data on life expectancy and the distribution of COVID-19 associated deaths we estimate that over 2,500,000 person-years of life have been lost so far in the pandemic in the US alone, averaging over 13.25 years per person with differences noted between males and females. Importantly, nearly half of the potential years of life lost occur in non-elderly populations. Issues impacting refinement of these models and the additional morbidity caused by COVID-19 beyond lethality are discussed.
FINALLY the CDC realized they had to put the January deaths in, because people kept saying that 2020 deaths werenāt any higher than 2019ā¦ [because they didnāt notice that they started with the week ending February 1]
ya, now we are seeing that ~10% increase YOY that you were expecting.
So early on in this pandemic, most reports were that the deaths were the very elderly (85+) and those with compromised immune systems.
Is that still true today? I know the northeast US had a very significant number of very elderly deaths back in April-May 2020. But deaths arenāt concentrated with the very elderly anymore. Are there any common characteristics linking some of these recent deaths (especially ones which I might have a chance to try to control? i.e. weight, HBP, diet, exercise, vitamin D level). Iām not "asking for a friendā, Iām asking for myself. Iād like to minimize the likelihood of death for myself and others from COVID-19. I really havenāt seen anything published and it seems like thereās been enough time and deaths that someone somewhere has been investigating this topic.
Iām looking for something beyond āwear a mask, social distance, and wash your handsā.
Donāt be old, donāt be fat, donāt have type 2 diabetes, donāt have high blood pressure, donāt be Black, donāt have an immune disorderā¦
Not very actionable. Iām taking vitamin D, and Iāve traded some of my omeprazole (for acid reflux) for famotidine (pepsid). Oh, and wearing a mask, avoiding other people, and washing my hands.
Itās been nice and sunny the last couple of days, so I might go for a walk this aft!!! 
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donāt be old - that was important in April-May 2020 in the NE US, but doesnāt address the current deaths
donāt be fat - any links or support for this characteristic? If true wouldnāt the CDC be pushing weight loss along with social distancing, handwashing and masks?
donāt have type 2 diabetes - any links or support for this characteristic?
donāt have HBP - any links or support for this characteristic?
donāt be Black - This too seemed a significant factor in April-May 2020, but not since then. The recent increases in deaths seem to be mostly due to Non-Hispanic Whites.
donāt have an immune disorder -
Iām basing these responses on the links and data from the CDC for weekly excess deaths. The links are already available in this thread.
Whatās driving the deaths today? And can I control any of it in my own life?
Here are the medical conditions (other than age) that the cdc believes have solid medical evidence to increase your risk:
- Cancer
- Chronic kidney disease
- COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)
- Down Syndrome
- Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies
- Immunocompromised state (weakened immune system) from solid organ transplant
- Obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 30 kg/m2 or higher but < 40 kg/m2)
- Severe Obesity (BMI ā„ 40 kg/m2)
- Pregnancy
- Sickle cell disease
- Smoking
- Type 2 diabetes mellitus
Friends who are studying covid tell me that most āhealthyā young people who die have an immune system abnormality (which typically had not previously been documented.)
Look up total excess mortality this year for all Americans and for Black Americans. Thereās no question Black people are more likely to die of it. There are lots of questions as to why. It could be that Black people get worse care, it could be that they are more likely to be deficient in vitamin D, it could be some gene thatās more common among Black people. Really, no one knows.
As for why no calls to lose weight:
- you canāt lose weight fast enough to matter, and losing weight quickly is bad for you in lots of ways.
- calls to lose weight tend to fail. Thatās less actionable than ābe extra careful if you are obeseā.
So here is some data from ADPH. Check the second page of the PDF
In New Hampshire:
- There have been 38,902 cases under the age of 60, with 25 deaths to date, for a case fatality rate (CFR) under 0.1%.
- There have been 11,201 cases with ages 60+, with 821 deaths to date, for a CFR of 7.3%.
Now there are all sorts of issues with that data ā potential under-reporting of cases, or of deaths, or the aged CFR being distorted by clusters tied to assisted living facilities (at least 637 of the deaths ages 60+ were in long-term care facilities). But if you can avoid it Iād strongly recommend not getting old.
Well thatās a list of some characteristics. Unfortunately none seem really actionable (except pregnancy - and thatās not a direct concern on mine). I suppose smoking is also something people can control themselves, but theyāve already heard the message to quit smoking many times. And then weight.
By the way, I have looked it it. Click this link to see Excess deaths by Race and Ethnicity Iāve made that point twice already. Thereās no doubt that Black people had a huge spike in deaths in April-May 2020. Since then, not so much of an issue. The recent spike is in Non-Hispanic whites. Which is also interesting why itās not currently spiking for Blacks.
Youāll need to check the āWeekly Number of Deaths by Race/Ethnicityā button and then āUpdate dashboardā.
Iāll look, but I doubt thereās enough public data to really pick it apartā¦well, without more work than Iām willing to do. Likeā¦ What parts of the country are affected, whatās their racial balance? I feel like a lot of the ānon-Hispanic whiteā deaths come from Sturgis. I mean that loosely, but the āmostly whiteā posts of the country seen to have been hit later.
I do have one more actionable recommendation. (In addition to ātake vitamin D.ā) If you live in a place where colds are āseasonalā (most of the US) and you donāt have whole-house humidity control, use a humidifier. For obvious reasons, no one has studied it with covid. But there are a lot of studies showing that the immune function of the nose and throat is hurt by being dry, and that people are more likely to catch colds if the indoor air is very dry. So keeping your nasal passages moist will likely help you fight off covid, too.
Itās absolutely ādonāt be oldā:
Go to here:
Pick the dashboard āWeekly Number of Deaths by Ageā ā you can choose state, if youāre curious how itās shaking out in different places (and yes, North Carolina still drastically lags). The over 85 group had another spike ā itās definitely ādonāt be oldā.
Thatās total deaths, so the excess not necessarily all from COVID.
The good news is that flu has been super-low
contrast even last season:
Last bad flu season was 2017-2018
Interesting that the total number of deaths for ages 45-64 is about the same as for 65-74. I would have naively expected moreā¦ Oh, thatās twice as many years. I was thinking that 65-74 is baby boomers, and so more populous than the 45-65 who are mostly genX, but not twice as populousā¦
Also, āoldā seems to start at 45, or thereabouts. 
Thatās an even more dramatic decrease in Influenza when you realize that the vertical axis units arenāt consistent between the 3 graphs. The 2020-2021 graphs would be barely visible on either of the other 2 graphs.