Yeah, I’ve learned the “experts” are not the best at predicting the whole Covid thing since the IHME model (remember that?) had the US topping out at 60k Covid deaths and Covid done by end of June 2020.
Only with Delta they may have been right?
Thanks Greenman. It helps to confirm a bias, but the data shows that case counts are higher in Trump’s best counties.
However, I am interested to find concrete data that supports the assertion that Covid-19 is definitively killing more republicans than democrats.
I don’t think experts are that good at predicting the actual future (the theoretical future that aligns with assumptions, sure).
I’ll take the advice of experts who are looking at the present.
This was actually true for a few weeks or days in June. He forgot to mention that we would be concerned shortly thereafter.
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Agreed we need to be cautious about models, yet also not judge them too hard when they are applied with very limited information. The Imperial College model originally predicted something like 1M and 2M US deaths with zero interventions, and between 0.1M and 0.2M with full intervention and perfect adherence. I think we’re seeing that that was a fair model, as our interventions weren’t as drastic as necessary to completely minimize deaths nor were our adherence to those interventions perfectly compliant.
Last I heard they’re saying this might come on October 26. (EUA for Pfizer for ages 5-11, that is.) Here’s hoping!
One thing I’m not sure of though… is Pfizer asking for the same dose or a lower dose?
I guess since it’s distributed in multi-dose vials the vaccinators can simply take out less for kids and it’s not like we’d have to wait for new vaccines to be distributed. So I guess it’s not a big deal either way, but I am curious.
If FDA says “yes” on 10/26… can kids start getting shots that day or the next?
If a meaningful number of kids got their first shot before Halloween then a number of them would have their second shot before Thanksgiving. Assuming it’s 3 weeks between shots for those kids???
Not many will have hit the 1-week post second shot by Thanksgiving though.
But every 5-11 year-old whose parents want them to be vaccinated could be a couple weeks past receiving their first dose by Thanksgiving. So that’s something.
It would be interesting to actually match up voter registrations and death certificates.
But since it’s mostly killing old folks and more prevalent in red areas… I think it’s a pretty safe bet that in 2021 it’s disproportionately killing Republicans.
It was certainly disproportionately killing Democrats at first: Seattle and NYC being hugely Dem areas. But I think the tide turned a long time ago.
Probably a big reason why Trump didn’t care at first, then had to double-down instead of learning.
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I feel like if he had come right out and said “Oh, it’s killing Republicans? I care now! Hey supporters, please wear masks / social distance / get vaccinated so that you don’t die. I need you to live so you can vote for me.” that would’ve been a net vote-getter for him, both in 2020 and 2024, if applicable.
That would be interesting.
I don’t think such a study has been done.
I believe the closest is are number of studies that look at county wide voting results v COVID death rates. These studies have all seemed to agree that the higher percentage of folks who voted for Trump have been dying from COVID at a much higher rate than folks who voted for a higher percentage for Biden.
At least since the Vaccine has been widely available and Delta has become come the dominant COVID strain.
Here is an article that references at least one such group of findings with a like to a NYT article showing a similar pattern nationwide.COVID-19 deaths are much higher in Washington’s Republican counties, analysis shows - OPB
I believe they are requesting 10mg for kids, as compared to 30mg for adults.
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What is the rationale for the lower dose? Kids and adults both come in different sizes…11 year-old boys are often larger than adult females. Is it an immune response issue for kids vs. adults?
I think the goal was fewer/milder side effects.
At my age, girls & boys are about the same size. But for teenagers, who’s usually bigger: the boys or the girls?
In a few years we may have dosing based on weight, or on whether a child has completed puberty. Heck, maybe that’s what we’ll get immediately.
But this approval process is being done by age band. So they tested various doses in kids, and documented immune response and side effects at each tested dose. I assume this is the dose that appeared to yield the most favorable immune response as compared to side effects. Or maybe it was just the lowest dose that have the same immune response that adults had to the adult dose.
I’m looking forward to reading the study, which i expect to be published shortly, at least in preview form.
I have read it is also because, as a rule, children have more sensitive immune systems. It takes less to get their immune systems to “notice” the foreign proteins and learn a response.
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Thanks. The immune response makes sense. It may make sense for those who caught Covid to receive a lower dose as well.
I always question the “one size fits all” approach to medication. For simplicity and for the masses, I understand a line needs to be drawn somewhere for the possible 10mg vs. 30mg dose. Perhaps younger teens would be better served with the smaller dose as well.
