Colorado says no. It will be appealed, of course.
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(Yes, this was posted in the insurrection thread, but i think this deserves its own thread.)
My guess is that SCOTUS will decide that President is an office, but that disqualification requires a conviction and keeps him on the ballot. Possible that they will find a way to punt and pass it on to the states to determine eligibility themselves.
If SCOTUS leaves it up to the states, I can’t see any state that isn’t solidly blue disqualifying Trump, and having him disqualified in a bunch of states would only help in others.
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Looking it up, all 7 justices in CO were appointed by Democrats, and it was still a 4-3 decision. I can’t see this being upheld.
Not if he can’t get enough primary delegates to win the nomination.
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So there are 2,467 delegates; you need 1,234 to win.
Suppose that across the board the preferences are 60% Trump, 30% Haley, 10% DeSantis.
Trump would need to be on the ballot in “states” worth 2,057 delegates to get to 1,234 delegates so he can only afford to be dropped in states worth 400 delegates to avoid the 
show of a brokered convention. Colorado only has 37, but add in California (169) and New York (91) and a few other dark blue ones and you get to 400 pretty fast.
Further assume that among Trump voters their second choice is DeSantis 55% or Haley 45%.
Now Haley is going to get 57% in the states where Trump isn’t on the ballot. So if enough states pull him from the ballot she could even win outright without a brokered convention.
That would take “states” with a majority of total delegates, and thus is far less likely. And I don’t even think she’s currently up to 30% in the polls and probably not at 45% second choice among Trump voters either, so also a touch of wishful thinking.
But the brokered convention is quite possible.
That simplistic analysis ignores rules like getting to 70% of the vote means getting 100% of the delegates in some states and unpledged delegates… it’s just meant to give a rough idea of what could happen if blue states start pulling Trump from their primary ballots.
CO Republican Party has said that if this stands then they will have a caucus instead of a primary so they can still elect Trump delegates.
It’s worth mentioning that Colorado has said they have to start printing ballots on 5 January in order to be ready for the primary.
Assuming that other states have 2 month lead times…the time for litigation in other states is likely past.
Writing as someone frustrated with states supporting closed or semi-closed partisan primaries, I appreciate those state courts that punted by saying the question was moot because it was just a party primary, and I appreciate the Colorado GOP noise that they’d hold a caucus in place of a primary if the Cheeto felon isn’t on the ballot.
If he is disqualified from the primary ballot, wouldn’t that also disqualify him from being on the presidential ballot? What does this solve?
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It permits the Colorado GOP officials to prove their loyalty to their Dear Leader.
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I would have guessed that if he can’t be on a primary ballot that he can’t win any delegates in a caucus either, but conceivably that’s some sort of loophole.
The benefit to keeping him off the ballot in CO is to starve him of delegates at the convention. He’s not going to carry CO in the general, so it doesn’t really matter if he’s on the ballot in the general.
I mean, it matters in the beauty pageant of the popular vote, but it has no practical impact.
Yeah, plus what MS said.
Polling is thin and likely noncredible before the conventions…but it looks like Biden only has a single-digit lead in Colorado. I’d think that’s close enough for the campaigns to make Colorado a target as the general election campaigns heat up.
9% is not close.
There’s a difference between close and wrong. The polls were wrong in 2016. I don’t think Trump has a chance in Colorado in 2024. Feel free to bump if I’m wrong and I’ll eat crow.
Also, if Trump does somehow carry Colorado in 2024 then he’s going to have an easy victory. That’s a sign that something else is going on. Even more certain than I am that he won’t carry CO, is that CO will not be the tipping point state.
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+9 with 19% undecided, conducted a year before the general election, and with a small sample size?
Note also a few weeks before there was a different poll showing only a +4 margin.
That’s fair.
EDIT: Note that in a generic D vs R ballot in the most recent poll, the margin closes to less than +5, with 16% on the fence.
I’ve been thinking that in a Biden v Trump general election, given D dissatisfaction with Biden, and R dissatisfaction with Trump, GOTV efforts and the “vote against…” mechanics will probably matter more than they would in a saner political environment.