Bridge: 2022 MSC Discussion

[SteveWhite]

@VeniVidiVici

Looking at the vote totals, it looks like you will have leaders on everything now.

Then procrastinator voted also, so we only have a leader on 7 of 8.

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        4D    3H    4H    2H    3D    3C    3H    CA
oirg                  4C    3N    4H    3C    3N   Dbl    4H   D10
SW                    4D    3N    4H    3C    3N    3C    4H   D10
ST                    4C    3N    4D    3C    3N    3C    4H    CA
BTDT                  4C    3H    2D     P     P    3C    4H    H2
NN                                                                
veni vidi vici        4D     P    4H    3C     P    3C    4H   D10
Abstract Actuary                                                  

Leading                     3N    4H    3C    3N    3C    4H   D10

[VeniVidiVici]

@procrastinator

H: Ace of clubs. It is IMPs and they made a slam try and stopped in game, and it seems all the side suits are sitting well for them. Hoping to attack their trump suit and that partner has good hearts spots. Not holding out too much hope.

I stayed with D10 for what I submitted, but on reflection, perhaps RHO just should never hold CK for this auction, in which case CA is probably best, as you say.

[SteveWhite]

                  A           B        C        D        E        F        G        H        Total
procrastinator    4D      80  3H   70  4H   90  2H   100 3D   70  3C   100 3H   70  CA   100 680  
oirg              4C      100 3N   90  4H   90  3C   70  3N   100 Dbl  60  4H   100 D10  70  680  
SW                4D      80  3N   90  4H   90  3C   70  3N   100 3C   100 4H   100 D10  70  700  
ST                4C      100 3N   90  4D   80  3C   70  3N   100 3C   100 4H   100 CA   100 740  
BTDT              4C      100 3H   70  2D   70  P    50  P    70  3C   100 4H   100 H2   60  620  
NN                                                                                                
veni vidi vici    4D      80  P    100 4H   90  3C   70  P    70  3C   100 4H   100 D10  70  680  
                                                                                
Submitted         4D      80  3N   90  4H   90  3C   70  3N   100 3C   100 4H   100 D10  70  700  


                                                                                  
                  4C      100 P    100 4S   100 2H   100 3N   100 3C   100 4H   100 CA   100   
                  4D      80  3N   90  4H   90  3C   70  P    70  Dbl  60  3H   70  D10  70       
                              3H   70  4D   80  P    50  3D   70                    H2   60       
                                       2D   70                                                    
                                                                                                  

Unfortunately I decided to break the tie on A in favor of submitting 4D.
Congratulations to Sweet Tooth’s 740, which would have tied for 1-5 on the honor roll. If I had submitted 4C on A, we would have had 720, which would have tied for 9-14. As it was, our 700 was tied for 29-37. It took 690 to make the honor roll. (50 names on the honor roll.)

Scoring on C was a bit strange. Maybe 100 for 4S is OK, even though chosen by only 3 panelists and only 2% of solvers. After all, nothing had more than 5 panelist votes. But as you can see, they in effect gave 20 participation points to a huge array of choices, with no panelist votes and only one of which had 1% of the solvers. True, “else” scored 0, but with all those calls getting 20, I doubt there were any calls which got 0. Omit?

[SteveWhite]

[SteveWhite]

Running out of time. We need to submit Monday, and it’s a wicked set. I’ll start us off.

A. 3N. Barely strong enough for a mild slam try, since the diamonds are strong even though the spades very week. At least we’ve right-sided it vs a club opening lead, and no wrong-siding vs anything else. Close second choice, with such weak spades, is 4S.
B. 3H. Everything is flawed. At least this is a reasonable choice. Don’t like double, and 3NT is quite a position.
C. 1S. Some panelist (Al Roth?) used to say these hands never come up, and I think he’s right about this one. (In many of those cases, the BW staff would then point out what tournament the hand occurred in,) We can’t play diamonds, and we might not want to if we could. 2NT now is possible, but after 1S maybe we’ll know what to do next time, if there is a next time.
D. 4C. Second choice pass. I’m not going to double again with only a doubleton diamond, and partner might even have enough for us to make game. Doesn’t seem the time to try a unilateral 4H.
E. Pass. To me, this is the easiest of the set so far. Very unlikely we can make a game or even 3S unless partner has a trap pass, and if he has those we’ll go plus anyway.
F. 3D. And now we get an even easier one, to me. I couldn’t bring myself to pass, with the main risk that partner has 18 or 19 balanced, which he probably doesn’t. Even if he does, with 6 diamonds the suit may run immediately or with one loser. If partner doesn’t have 18 or 19 balanced but has diamonds, my hand has enough playing strength for him.
G. 2S. It’s matchpoints so spades score more, if we make. Borderline strong enough for 2NT, but awful without a club stop. 2D is a close second. Not 3D with a 4=3=3=3 shape and the likely wasted club jack.
H. Club 7, since nothing else is even remotely promising. Second choice diamond 10, but leading the suit dummy bid twice has little appeal.

[SteveWhite]

From Sweet Tooth via e-mail, with some comments at the end

PROBLEM A: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM B: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM C: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM E: Double
PROBLEM F: Pass
PROBLEM G: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Spade Jack

A guesswork month for me, not comfortable. They kinda talk you into 3NT (nssT) on A, and I’ll go with eccentric 2NT on B and 3NT on C.
Don’t know what the matchpoint or other specialists do on D, probably double again, but a natural 4C at least shuns diamonds and suggests hearts, I think. E- always tough for me, never get it right when I don’t double, so I chose that over 3S or pass.
F- under these conditions, starts with Pass instead of 3 or 4D
G-2D? where are we going with 4333 only 7 spades and Jxx clubs, (and matchpoints
H- SJ, haven’t been successful with leads lately, but it sure sounds like declarer has 1 spade, likely 1=3=6=3? Probably a club is winner?

I pointed out that he has the declarer wrong on H, and welcomed a revised answer if he wants to change it.

ETA: he’s sticking to the answer. That text was a typo, supposed to be “dummy has”

[oirg]

A. 3n
B. 3h
C 1S
D. 4C
E. 3S
F. 4d
G. Double
H. Diamond 10

[procrastinator]

A. 3NT. Tempted to make a stronger try, but the weak spades talked me out of it.
B. 3 hearts.
C. 1 spade. Hope that is forcing.
D. Pass. A little tempted by 3NT, but feels like would need partner to have the club queen plus another quick trick (queen of hearts or diamond ace).
E. Double. Partner’s always let me down by bidding my short suit, but I still have not learned
F. 3D. Makes 3NT opposite the right 18-19, that counts, right?
G. 2 diamonds. Yuck, could be convinced this is not right. If partner is a mundane shape like 3442, we are ruffing in long hand in a Moysian…
H. Club 7. I read a rule many years ago to never lead from a four card suit headed by the ace against nt. I have violated it only a couple of times in many years, and the rule has treated me well. This hand feels like an exception though.

[SteveWhite]

@procrastinator

C. 1 spade. Hope that is forcing.

This is leading, so far, but it is not forcing and not necessarily even constructive. From the system notes:

C. After Our Suit Overcall of a One-Bid

After our simple overcall of a one-bid:
(a) A new-suit bid by an unpassed advancer is natural and nonforcing, constructive if an advance of a two-level overcall. (Then: a cue-bid by intervenor is artificial and neither shows nor denies a primary fit for advancer’s suit.) A new-suit jump is invitational.
(b) A cue-bid may be either a strong raise or a prelude to a forcing bid in a new suit (but a passed-hand cue-bid guarantees a fit for intervenor’s suit). A jump cue-bid is a mixed (i.e., semipreemptive) raise that shows at least one defensive trick.

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        3N    3H    1S     P   Dbl    3D    2D    C7
oirg                  3N    3H    1S    4C    3S    4D   Dbl   D10
SW                    3N    3H    1S    4C     P    3D    2S    C7
ST                    3N    2N    3N    4C   Dbl     P    2D    SJ
Leading               3N    3H    1S    4C                        

Leaders on the first four, one of them unanimous.

[Numbers_Nerd]

Sorry I’ve been such a deadbeat since I retired. Anyway, thanks for the reminder on BBO, Steve.
A) 3NT
B) 2NT
C) 2D
D) 3NT
E) Dbl
F) 3D
G) Pass
H) C7

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        3N    3H    1S     P   Dbl    3D    2D    C7
oirg                  3N    3H    1S    4C    3S    4D   Dbl   D10
SW                    3N    3H    1S    4C     P    3D    2S    C7
ST                    3N    2N    3N    4C   Dbl     P    2D    SJ
NN                    3N    2N    2D    3N   Dbl    3D     P    C7

Leading               3N    3H    1S    4C   Dbl    3D          C7

Now have leaders on all except problem G. B is only 3-2, so the next voter could create a tie.

[BTDT]

Sorry I’m so late this month … (By the way, the Romans considered February to be bad luck, being the practical people that they were, when they needed to have a short month, they chose February.)

A) 4S
B) Dbl
C) 2N
D) Dbl
E) Dbl
F) Pass
G) 2D
H) Club 7

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        3N    3H    1S     P   Dbl    3D    2D    C7
oirg                  3N    3H    1S    4C    3S    4D   Dbl   D10
SW                    3N    3H    1S    4C     P    3D    2S    C7
ST                    3N    2N    3N    4C   Dbl     P    2D    SJ
BTDT                  4S   Dbl    2N   Dbl   Dbl     P    2D    C7
NN                    3N    2N    2D    3N   Dbl    3D     P    C7

Leading               3N    3H    1S    4C   Dbl    3D    2D    C7

Currently a leader on everything, but B and G especially are very close. Another vote could create a tie.

[VeniVidiVici]

A 3N. Really close to just giving up with 4S. But since partner will have last train available later (e.g., after 3N-4C-4D-) I will keep hope alive as long as I stay below 4S and don’t bid last train myself.

B 2N. Too strong to pass, and the ratty hearts and double spade stop convince me to go the notrump route.

C 2D seems clear. The hand is too good for 2N, and 3N is far too preemptive (partner may have four spades or may have H AQJxxx), and 1S isn’t close to forcing…and we kind of know it’s likely to go all pass. The question will be next round when I have to decide what to bid over 2H. 2S is what I’ll probably go with, since 2N would show H support, according to the notes.

D 4C. Yuck. At matchpoints, where partner will pass much more freely, I would just double again, but that seems too risky at IMPs. I don’t want to bid a thin 3N when I can’t hold up the A twice, since that could go down lots. Also, they won’t take the push to 4S over that. That leaves Pass or 4C. Since 4C implies a second place to play and thus may get us to +620 in 4H and possibly to +600 in 5C, that seems the way to go.

E. Pass. I’d double at matchpoints. I don’t think we’re getting a number at IMPs, and there is a serious risk that double gives partner a choice between -500 and -790… 3S would be a serious error. It shows close to another full trick, is easily doubled on bad breaks, and will often be raised for extra undertricks, possibly with a ticket.

F 4D. Even if 3D didn’t show enough for game opposite 18-19, I’d still want to bid 4D (if I had a singleton I’d bid 5D). LHO is an unpassed hand. If the auction to me had been P-1D-P-, I could better understand those who want to pass. I can’t see why I want to give LHO room to describe his hand. Certainly I don’t want to give him a comfortable 4D (or 2D) call when he is 5-5 in the majors!

G 2S Partner may be counting on getting another call with a strong shapely hand, so taking a chance on passing can be very costly with Qxx in partner’s suit and only three cards in theirs. This also seems to make a future heart bid artificial, so I can bid 3H next if partner now bids 3D.

H C9 If partner can’t figure out what’s going on, he’s probably not that bright. Meanwhile if I lead the 7 and he has K8xxx, it’s my fault. Yes, this costs when partner has K10xxx (no 8) and dummy is void. But that’s far less likely, since it’s a parlay on partner’s and the opponents’ holdings (and dummy has many ways to hold a singleton club, only way to hold a void, and would have been more likely to preference a major if holding a void…do we really think dummy is 2=3=8=0?)

[VeniVidiVici]

By the way, oirg can’t double on problem G. Partner has already doubled the current bid.

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        3N    3H    1S     P   Dbl    3D    2D    C7
oirg                  3N    3H    1S    4C    3S    4D   Dbl   D10
SW                    3N    3H    1S    4C     P    3D    2S    C7
ST                    3N    2N    3N    4C   Dbl     P    2D    SJ
BTDT                  4S   Dbl    2N   Dbl   Dbl     P    2D    C7
NN                    3N    2N    2D    3N   Dbl    3D     P    C7
veni vidi vici        3N    2N    2D    4C     P    4D    2S    C9

Leading               3N  2N ?    1S    4C   Dbl    3D    2D    C7

2N isn’t really leading in the voting on B. It’s a 3-3 tie. I don’t want to surprise anyone since I have to submit Monday, and at the moment I’m planning to submit 2N. Speak now or forever hold your piece.

[oirg]

Thanks for pointing out my iilegal call on G. I will change it to pass.

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C     D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        3N    3H    1S     P   Dbl    3D    2D    C7
oirg                  3N    3H    1S    4C    3S    4D     P   D10
SW                    3N    3H    1S    4C     P    3D    2S    C7
ST                    3N    2N    3N    4C   Dbl     P    2D    SJ
BTDT                  4S   Dbl    2N   Dbl   Dbl     P    2D    C7
NN                    3N    2N    2D    3N   Dbl    3D     P    C7
veni vidi vici        3N    2N    2D    4C     P    4D    2S    C9

Submitted             3N    2N    1S    4C   Dbl    3D    2D    C7

:fingerscrossed: As I entered these, my opinion of 4D on F and Pass on G went up. Almost changed my vote on F to 4D, which would make it the leader and I could have submitted it.

[SteveWhite]

                  A           B        C        D        E        F        G        H        Total
procrastinator    3N      100 3H   100 1S   100 P    70  Dbl  100 3D   100 2D   100 C7   100 770  
oirg              3N      100 3H   100 1S   100 4C   60  3S   80  4D   50  P    80  D10  70  640  
SW                3N      100 3H   100 1S   100 4C   60  P    80  3D   100 2S   80  C7   100 720  
ST                3N      100 2N   90  3N   60  4C   60  Dbl  100 P    70  2D   100 SJ   80  660  
BTDT              4S      80  Dbl  60  2N   50  Dbl  90  Dbl  100 P    70  2D   100 C7   100 650  
NN                3N      100 2N   90  2D   90  3N   100 Dbl  100 3D   100 P    80  C7   100 760  
                                                      
veni vidi vici    3N      100 2N   90  2D   90  4C   60  P    80  4D   50  2S   80  C9   60  610  
                                                                                  
Submitted         3N      100 2N   90  1S   100 4C   60  Dbl  100 3D   100 2D   100 C7   100 750  


                                                                                  
                  3N      100 3H   100 1S   100 3N   100 Dbl  100 3D   100 2D   100 C7   100   
                  4S      80  2N   90  2D   90  Dbl  90  3S   80  P    70  2S   80  SJ   80       
                              Dbl  60  3N   60  4C   60  P    80  4D   50  P    80  D10  70       
                                       2N   50  P    70                             C9   60       
                                                                                                  

Congratulations to procrastinator, whose 770 would have tied for 4/5 on the honor roll. Almost as good was NN’s 760, which would have tied for 6-13, slightly ahead of our Submitted 750, good for 14-26. It took 730 to make the honor roll.