Bridge: 2021 MSC Discussion

[SteveWhite]

Since another voter could not create a new leader, just potentially a tie, I submitted these.

                       A     B     C         D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator        2S     P    2S        3D    3S    3N    5D P; D3
SW                    2S    1S    2S        2S    3S    2N    5D P; D3
ST                    3H    1S    2S        3C   Dbl    3N    5D P; D3
BTDT                  3C    1S     P        3C    3S    3D    5H P; D3
NN                                                                    
veni vidi vici        3H    1S    3D        3D    3S    3N    5D P; D3
Abstract Actuary      3H    2C     P        3D    3S    3D    5H P; CK

Submitted             3H    1S    2S        3D    3S    3N    5D P; D3

[VeniVidiVici]

I actually did change my vote on C to 2S, but obviously that doesn’t impact the outcome.

[SteveWhite]

[code]
	A		B		C		D		E		F		G		H		Total
procrastinator	2S	100	P	60	2S	100	3D	70	3S	100	3N	80	5D	100	P; D3	100	710
oirg
SW	2S	100	1S	100	2S	100	2S	80	3S	100	2N	10	5D	100	P; D3	100	690
Klaymen
ST	3H	70	1S	100	2S	100	3C	100	Dbl	70	3N	80	5D	100	P; D3	100	720
BTDT	3C	0	1S	100	P	70	3C	100	3S	100	3D	100	5H	50	P; D3	100	620
NN
jeremiahsjohnson
veni vidi vici	3H	70	1S	100	2S	100	3D	70	3S	100	3N	80	5D	100	P; D3	100	720
Phileas Fogg
Abstract Actuary	3H	70	2C	50	P	70	3D	70	3S	100	3D	100	5H	50	P; CK	20	530
bill18
Submitted	3H	70	1S	100	2S	100	3D	70	3S	100	3N	80	5D	100	P; D3	100	720
		480		610		640		560		670		530		600		620
	2S	100	1S	100	2S	100	3C	100	3S	100	3D	100	5D	100	P; D3	100	800
	3H	70	P	60	P	70	2S	80	Dbl	70	3N	80	5H	50	P; CK	20
	3C	0	2C	50			3D	70			2N	10
[/code]

Congratulations to Sweet Tooth, VVV, and consensus, all with 720, the lowest score to make the monthly honor roll.

[SteveWhite]

Here are the August problems as an attachment. I’ll paste images next week.

mscproblemset202108.pdf (117.6 KB)

[VeniVidiVici]

710 also made the honor roll

[VeniVidiVici]

Initial August guesses:
A Tough…Bid 4D to cooperate with a slam try. Bid 4H to ask partner to choose a game. Or bid 4S to avoid confusion? Still thinking…
B 3D. Can’t pass at IMPs, feels a tiny bit too light for 3N, and the wrong hand is taking the tap in 3H, but both of those bids are also reasonable.
C 1N. I normally favor a stronger range for this and would need to bid 1S, but BWS has 1NT here as 10-14, so why not?
D a1/b1 I think. Change the HJ to the HQ and I’d be bidding instead of passing.
E 3S. Too much for 2S, and bidding 2C risks playing it there as this would be a natural bid for some folks. (If I knew 2C were artificial, I would probably bid it.)
F 3S too much playing strength for the natural 4N. Not enough to blast 6N. 3S is forcing, so I postpone my decision one round.
G 7C. This is usually only problematic when partner has precisely two hearts. 7H also has problems when partner has 0 or 1 heart. Lose 2 IMPs, oh well. As long as I don’t lose 16.
H Partner has room for 3 HCP. If it’s the DK, we probably set this regardless of what I lead. If it’s the DQ and the HJ, I probably need partner to have something like xxxx 10xxx Qxx xx and to get in with the DQ to put a heart through before dummy’s spades set up, so I need to lead a diamond (though HQ might work, D is better as declarer may have 6 clubs). If he has Jxxx 10xxx Qxx xx, on the other hand, he stops dummy’s spades, and I need declarer to misguess diamonds after spades fail to set up. One round of spades would suffice to diagnose the situation, but it’s a round I can’t afford in the first situation. On the other hand, 10xxx of spades with partner is probably good enough…declarer is not finding a small spade off dummy at trick 2 from an original QJxxx if I underlead the AK at trick 1. My initial reaction was to lead the HQ, but a heart is actually the worst possible lead, on reflection, since I never need to create an entry to a long heart with partner for the 5th trick. It’s either a D lead playing for AK of diamonds on my left and Q with partner, or a club lead hoping delarer misguesses a 2-way D guess, or a small spade to be tricky.

[VeniVidiVici]

I have to admit, this is the first time I’ve been tempted to lead x from AKx.

[AbstractActuary]

A: 4D. Strange problem. Not positive what partner’s 4C bid means. Presumably it’s natural. I’ll offer 4D as a better alternative, and he can leave in 4D or take us to 4S, whichever he feels is stronger.

B: 3NT. Considered 3D, to show my strongest suit, but I think 3NT showing the club stopped at my decent HCP is the better play. Looking back, it’s matchpoints, which makes me slightly second guess that.

C: Pass. I was leaning double, and in the balancing seat I think it’s okay with 4 spades and 11 HCP. But it is a bit light, and I have strength against hearts. I considered 1S with 4 strong spades, but don’t like it as much as double.

D: a3; b2 (2H;DBL). Almost too strong for 2H. The 4 spades and club void are both strikes against it, but I’ve turned a bit conservative with opening bids. With 4+ of each major, double feels perfect to me in the second example.

E: 2C. My amateur interpretation of 2C is a cue bid. So strongish hand and some support for partner’s suit. I also considered 3S, 1NT, 2NT, but didn’t bother checking what each of those might mean in BWS.

F: 4NT. 3NT seems safe and strong, but might be missing a slam. 4NT is natural by agreement which I take to mean shows strength and does not induce blackwood. Considered 3NT, 3D and 4S.

G: 2H. Seems straightforward and potentially not strong enough, but DBL may not ever properly display my hand, and 2H leaves room to show clubs if partner has any support anywhere.

H: D10. Heart lead could cost a trick. Spade lead could take away one of two crucial spade stoppers. Club suit is the most innocuous, but is East’s strength. Leaving me with diamonds (bid by West), seems like the clear choice. From 10 9 5, feels like 10 is the right lead.

[VeniVidiVici]

I should add on G that if 7C gets Lightnered, I’m passing, not running. LHO will almost certainly think his partner is ruffing a diamond, not a heart, so I’m still more likely to make 7C (hearts run or I can ruff them out) than 7H (hearts have to run).

[SteveWhite]

@SteveWhite

Here are the August problems as an attachment. I’ll paste images next week.

Not quite next week, but better late than never.

[BTDT]

A) 4S
B) 3H
C) 1N
D) (a1), (b3) [Pass, 3H]
E) 2C
F) 3S
G) 2S (then 7C unless Pard bids hearts)
H) D10

[SteveWhite]

A) 4S. At least he will know I have only 3, so perhaps could pull if necessary
B) 3H. Without a better confirmed fit, stay cautious
C) 1N. We certainly prefer that west be on lead (and don’t like clubs), so double is out. With these hearts, 1N is better than 1S.
D) A) 2H, though some will certainly pass due to the spades; B) P, though 3H is tempting and wouldn’t object to it. Double or 4C: not for me
E) 2S, for fear that 2C is natural. (Definitely 2C is we’re sure it’s a cue bid. When not sure, second choice is 3S). Would they be asking this if 2C is surely a cue bid?
F) 3S. With 4NT natural, too much of an underbid to consider. Maybe 5NT pick-a-slam on next round. Not this round with a stiff heart.
G) 2S, then 7C. Though VVV’s immediate 7C has a lot of merit, because they are much more likely to decide to save, correctly, if we have shown an extreme 2-suiter. (One aspect of VVV’s I disagree with: if an immediate 7C is doubled by opener (not on lead), I think the odds would heavily favor pulling. Just on length considerations, leader might be wrong about the side suit, but if he has A or K or Q of diamonds, he has an almost sure diamond trick if opener is void.
H) D10. At least it provides the surest trick to a set if the contract can be set by force. Low spade is fairly tempting since either the Q or J of spades would likely be enough. But do we want the embarrassment if partner has the Q or J but doesn’t play it, lest opener has a stiff A or K? But I disagree with VVV’s analysis that declarer will play low from dummy’s QJxxx on a low spade. He’ll take his best shot not to lose three spade tricks, and that means playing high.

[SteveWhite]

Only 4 voters so far, and VVV didn’t finalize a choice on two, but we do have leaders on 3 problems.

                       A     B     C         D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator                                                        
SW                   4S     3H    1N     2H; P    2S    3S    2S   D10
ST                                                                    
BTDT                 4S     3H    1N     P; 3H    2C    3S    2S   D10
NN                                                                    
veni vidi vici         ?    3D    1N      P; P    3S    3S    7C     ?
Abstract Actuary      4D    3N     P   2H; Dbl    2C    4N    2H   D10

Leading                           1N                    3S         D10

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C         D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator                                                        
SW                   4S     3H    1N     2H; P    2S    3S    2S   D10
ST                    4D    3D    1N    2H; 3H    2C    3D    2S    SK
BTDT                 4S     3H    1N     P; 3H    2C    3S    2S   D10
NN                                                                    
veni vidi vici         ?    3D    1N      P; P    3S    3S    7C     ?
Abstract Actuary      4D    3N     P   2H; Dbl    2C    4N    2H   D10

Leading                           1N     2H; ?    2C    3S    2S   D10

Table reflects Sweet Tooth’s votes by e-mail. We currently have agreements on 5 1/2 of 8 since there is 3-way agreement on part A of D. I remain very concerned about E, where 2C may not be a cue bid. OTOH, if we don’t bid 2C it isn’t clear whether 2S or 3S is better.

[SteveWhite]

BWS does say

C. After Our Suit Overcall of a One-Bid

After our simple overcall of a one-bid:
(a) A new-suit bid by an unpassed advancer is natural and nonforcing, constructive if an advance of a two-level overcall. (Then: a cue-bid by intervenor is artificial and neither shows nor denies a primary fit for advancer’s suit.)
[/quote
So there is a fair chance that 2C will be treated as a cue bid even when 1H was a balancing overcall instead of a simple overcall. Sweet Tooth also points out, via e-mail, that if partner is in doubt he can bid 2H on a doubleton or 2D natural.

[VeniVidiVici]

Steve, thanks for the research on BWS:
New answers from me (and new reasons for some old answers):
A 4S. Too likely anything else will be too confusing.
B 3D, as before. If vul I’d bid 3H as aiming at the likeliest game, but here I will aim at the likeliest plus score.
C 1N, as before
D a1/b1 as before
E 2C since it turns out this is a cue bid. Also, 3S was overexuberant as partner has either terrible spades or a terrible hand. If he has 10 points then his spades are so bad we probably belong in NT. Pass, 1N, and 2S are in the running.
F 3S, as before
G 7C, as before
H S5. I can’t help myself. Not doing well in the annual race, so may as well go for style points.

[VeniVidiVici]

@SteveWhite

A) 4S. At least he will know I have only 3, so perhaps could pull if necessary
B) 3H. Without a better confirmed fit, stay cautious
C) 1N. We certainly prefer that west be on lead (and don’t like clubs), so double is out. With these hearts, 1N is better than 1S.
D) A) 2H, though some will certainly pass due to the spades; B) P, though 3H is tempting and wouldn’t object to it. Double or 4C: not for me
E) 2S, for fear that 2C is natural. (Definitely 2C is we’re sure it’s a cue bid. When not sure, second choice is 3S). Would they be asking this if 2C is surely a cue bid?
F) 3S. With 4NT natural, too much of an underbid to consider. Maybe 5NT pick-a-slam on next round. Not this round with a stiff heart.
G) 2S, then 7C. Though VVV’s immediate 7C has a lot of merit, because they are much more likely to decide to save, correctly, if we have shown an extreme 2-suiter. (One aspect of VVV’s I disagree with: if an immediate 7C is doubled by opener (not on lead), I think the odds would heavily favor pulling. Just on length considerations, leader might be wrong about the side suit, but if he has A or K or Q of diamonds, he has an almost sure diamond trick if opener is void.
H) D10. At least it provides the surest trick to a set if the contract can be set by force. Low spade is fairly tempting since either the Q or J of spades would likely be enough. But do we want the embarrassment if partner has the Q or J but doesn’t play it, lest opener has a stiff A or K? But I disagree with VVV’s analysis that declarer will play low from dummy’s QJxxx on a low spade. He’ll take his best shot not to lose three spade tricks, and that means playing high.

On A, I also bid 4S, but I am more fearful that we belong in 6S than that we belong in 5C or 5D.
On H, I did not say that declarer would play low from S QJxxx. I said he would not continue the suit at trick 2, meaning I’m still 50-50 if he has to guess the DQ.

[SteveWhite]

                       A     B     C         D     E     F     G     H
procrastinator                                                        
SW                   4S     3H    1N     2H; P    2C    3S    2S   D10
ST                    4D    3D    1N    2H; 3H    2C    3D    2S    SK
BTDT                 4S     3H    1N     P; 3H    2C    3S    2S   D10
NN                                                                    
veni vidi vici       4S     3D    1N      P; P    2C    3S    7C    S5
Abstract Actuary      4D    3N     P   2H; Dbl    2C    4N    2H   D10

Submitted            4S     3D    1N    2H; 3H    2C    3S    2S   D10

I also changed my vote on E to 2C, since concluding it is a cue bid.
I still had to break ties on B and D; fingers crossed.
Still resisting the spade 5 on H, even though it is very tempting. It is likely fatal if dummy has QJ of spades and declarer has 6 clubs. In addition, I don’t trust partner being able to read the spade position, and fear he might not play an honor in some positions when he fears declarer has a stiff honor.

[SteveWhite]

                  A          B        C        D             E        F        G        H        Total
SW                4S     20  3H   40  1N   100 2H; P     0   2C   100 3S   20  2S   80  D10  50  410  
ST                4D     100 3D   100 1N   100 2H; 3H    60  2C   100 3D   100 2S   80  SK   80  720  
BTDT              4S     20  3H   40  1N   100 P; 3H     100 2C   100 3S   20  2S   80  D10  50  510  
veni vidi vici    4S     20  3D   100 1N   100 P; P      60  2C   100 3S   20  7C   100 S5   90  590  
Abstract Actuary  4D     100 3N   60  P    70  2H; Dbl   0   2C   100 4N   10  2H   90  D10  50  480  
Submitted         4S     20  3D   100 1N   100 2H; 3H    60  2C   100 3S   20  2S   80  D10  50  530  


                                                                                      
                  4D     100 3D   100 1N   100 P; 3H     100 2C   100 3D   100 7C   100 SA   100   
                  4S     20  3N   60  P    70  P; P      60           3S   20  2H   90  S5   90       
                             3H   40           2H; 3H    60           4N   10  2S   80  SK   80       
                                               2H; P     0                              D10  50       
                                               2H; Dbl   0                                            

A poor month for everyone except Sweet Tooth, whose 720 would tie for 10-13 on the Honor Roll.

Scoring on G was a little unusual, IMO, but within the director’s discretion. If anything receives a majority from the panel, it must get at least 100, and anything getting at least one panelist vote must get at least 10, but otherwise anything goes. 7C and 2S tied for the plurality among the panel with 7 votes each. Of those two, solvers went massively for 2S (64% to 10%), but 7C scored 100 and 2S only 80. OK, I see a lot of merit to 7C.

Meanwhile 2H (6 panelists, 7% of solvers) and 2C (1 panelist, 0% of solvers) scored 90. OK. Reasonable strategic calls, maybe better than 2S as less likely to provoke a sacrifice.
And 6C, 6H and 4NT (each with at least 1 panelist vote) each got 70. Again reasonable, perhaps delighted to play a small slam, and not certain to provoke a sacrifice if pushed to a grand.

After that. I’ve attached a screen shot of the scoring. Unless I’ve missed something, every other possibly legal call got 40. Yes, 7S here (which if doubled could only be pulled to 7NT, also not an attractive contract) scored as many points as our choices on A and F got for the two scores combined.

As usual “Else” got 0, but unless I’m mistaken someone could get 0 only if they omitted the question, since insufficient calls are impossible.

[SteveWhite]