According to the notes:
“Doubles subject to no explicit agreement:
(a) when a pass would be forcing, a double discourages further offensive bidding;
(b) when a pass would be nonforcing, a double is penalty if the doubler is limited, cooperative-takeout if the doubler is unlimited.”
Here, opener is unlimited, so this would be cooperative-takeout, which is a little odd in that I think most experts would treat it as cooperative-penalty because our side had already agreed on a suit, so the usual meaning of “takeout” is not so important.
Note that if this were responder doubling, then there’s a very similar sequence that is explicitly defined as cooperative-penalty (but otherwise would be pure penalty, since responder is limited):
" Raise then double: After one of a suit — (pass|double|simple overcall) — single raise — (single raise|simple new-suit bid|simple overcall) — pass — (pass) — ?: responder’s double is cooperative-penalty."
A. 4C
B. 3N
C. 1S
D. 2N
E. 3N
F. 2C
G. P
H. DJ. With some admiration for VVV’s sneaky heart lead, and noting that the club lead is quite attractive as the most passive. Re diamonds vs hearts, this requires only the Q from partner, not the king. But is more likely to blow a trick if partner lacks the key honor.
There is no certainty that they are missing a key card. Dummy might not be strong enough to expect a grand opposite a known minimum opener (from the 4S bid), even with all the key cards.
A B C D E F G H
procrastinator
SW 4C 3N 1S 2N 3N 2C P DJ
ST
BTDT 5C 3N 1S Dbl; 2N P 2S P DJ
NN
veni vidi vici P 4S 1S Dbl; 3D P 2D P HJ
Abstract Actuary 3S 5C 1S 2N 4C 2C P C5
Leading 1S P
So far two are unanimous, but we don’t even have 3 voters agreeing on any other.
The due date snuck up on me. I need to enter before midnight Wednesday.
A) 3S
B) Double
C) 1S. Yuck.
D) 2NT. Yuck again.
E) 4 clubs. KJx likely single stopper on this auction. If partner wanted to play 3NT opp single stopper, he could have bid it.
F) 2 spades. As a passed hand, seems pretty clear to me. When are a queen below a max - if we don’t bid it on this hand, the range is super narrow. Will pull 2NT to 3D.
G) 3S. Originally passed, but after constructing hands, this felt better
H) Diamond jack. Guessing they have all the key cards from the auction, so may need to build a trick. Very low confidence.
A B C D E F G H
procrastinator 3S Dbl 1S 2N 4C 2S 3S DJ
SW 4C 3N 1S 2N 3N 2C P DJ
ST P 3N 1S 2N 4C 2C 3S C5
BTDT 5C 3N 1S Dbl; 2N P 2S P DJ
NN
veni vidi vici P 4S 1S Dbl; 3D P 2D P HJ
Abstract Actuary 3S 5C 1S 2N 4C 2C P C5
Leading 3N 1S 2N 4C 2C P DJ
We now have a leader on all except A, and unless we get get votes from NN I’ll have to make a choice tomorrow. Any of you could still post here to try to influence me.
Clubs has the advantage of being a known fit, and also is certainly our longest combined fit. Against that, it would take 11 tricks for game, and we might not even be able to take 10. From the online BWS system notes, I don’t think partner has denied 4 spades (has, I think, denied 4 cards in both majors), but he might well not have them. Unfortunately if I bid 3 spades, he’s likely to expect a better hand.
A B C D E F G H Total
procrastinator 3S 100 Dbl 100 1S 50 2N 90 4C 60 2S 100 3S 100 DJ 90 690
SW 4C 90 3N 80 1S 50 2N 90 3N 90 2C 70 P 90 DJ 90 650
ST P 50 3N 80 1S 50 2N 90 4C 60 2C 70 3S 100 C5 80 580
BTDT 5C 70 3N 80 1S 50 Dbl; 2N 100 P 100 2S 100 P 90 DJ 90 680
veni vidi vici P 50 4S 90 1S 50 Dbl; 3D 50 P 100 2D 90 P 90 HJ 100 620
Abstract Actuary 3S 100 5C 60 1S 50 2N 90 4C 60 2C 70 P 90 C5 80 600
Submitted 3S 100 3N 80 1S 50 2N 90 4C 60 2C 70 P 90 DJ 90 630
3S 100 Dbl 100 3C 100 Dbl; 2N 100 P 100 2S 100 3S 100 HQ 100
4C 90 4S 90 2C 70 2N 90 3N 90 2D 90 P 90 HJ 100
5C 70 3N 80 1N 60 Dbl; 3D 50 4C 60 2C 70 DJ 90
P 50 5C 60 1S 50 C5 80
Ouch. We were unanimous on C, and it was worth only 50, the lowest score any of us got on any question. Only 1 of the 28 expert panelists chose 1S, but then 58% of the solvers submitted 1S as their answer. That’s the only question where more than 50% of solvers chose a single action.
procrastinator’s 690 was our highest score. BTDT’s 680 was only 10 points back. It took 710 to make the magazine’s honor roll for the month.
A 2S. What else? I can’t fail to mention spades, and if I double and partner bids diamonds, I will have to take him back to clubs at an uncomfortable level.
B Pass. Partner is exceedingly unlikely to have six clubs. He almost certainly has four spades. I have nothing to push them up with so I hope to go plus right here, or that they are comfortably making overtricks and that this hand is about the play, not the auction. -80 beats -100.
C Pass. They have some major-suit fit(s) that will come in if I open 1C. And if I open 3C, partner will often bid 3NT failing expecting a different hand from me. And they might still compete.
D (a) Because 4C is cheap and leaves room for cue-bids. It will be a close call whether to bid 5C over a signoff or to pass. I think pass. RKC seems weird with no 5 level safety. I have sympathy for (c).
E 3H. With a suit this good, and the spade ruffs in the short hand, I should suggest the 4-3 fit. It’s close, and I have a lot of sympathy for 3C, which would be my bid with the same shape, slightly weaker hearts, and slightly stronger clubs.
F Pass. I’d like to double for takeout, but with the Kx of spades slotted, I don’t think my hand is good enough. If partner passes for penalty, I’m not sure we’re setting it. If partner bids, I’m not at all sure we’re going plus.
G Pass. I bid my hand when I doubled 2C, and I have no feature to show. I’m leading the deuce of trump. (I was going to say this is a lead problem, but the lead isn’t a problem, either.)
H CA. All suits except hearts have some appeal. But declarer rates to have difficulty getting to dummy, so I’ll shy away from leading a singleton trump or 109x in partner’s suit to avoid finessing him (and because I can’t lead a second trump anyway when I get in). On a good day, partner is ruffing the third round. If partner discourages, I get to see dummy before I lead to trick two.
A. 2S. Expect 3C is safer than 2S, but 2S is better in case the opponents bid 3H.
B. P. Likely right to defend
C. P. Shortness in majors makes plus score unlikely
D. 2D then 4H. RKC is far worse; splinters with stiff ace are less appealing than splinters with small stiff.
E. 2N. Suggest a balanced hand. Suggests a spade stop too, but can’t have everything. Second choice 3S, which may right-side NT.
F. 3D. Don’t like it at all, but like defending 3C even less
G. Double. At least the lead choice is easy (heart 2).
H. Club K, the BWS normal from AK
Oops. I was thinking it had A from AK, and checked but concluded it said K from AK. Alas, I was looking at “Later leads vs suit contracts” not “Opening leads against suit contracts”. So I’m in favor of the club ace.
A B C D E F G H
procrastinator
SW 2S P P 2D; 4H 2N 3D Dbl CA
ST
BTDT 2S Dbl P 2D; 4H 3C P P S8
NN
veni vidi vici 2S P P 2D; 4C 3H P P CA
Abstract Actuary
Leading 2S P
Only 3 voters so far, so for a leader a choice must be unanimous. Two of those, and only one problem with three different answers.
A) 2S, seems clear to me, not always a good sign
B) Double - slightly tempted by 2C, but could be a 33 fit. Selling out at the one level to an 8 card fit when we have half the deck, at matchpoints, does not seem right.
C) Pass, not particularly close to me, with such a ratty club suit. Qx x Axx KQTxxxx would be close (to 3C 4th seat opener)
D) a). Partner has ~16 out of 28 missing HCP. Asking him to cover so many losers requires the right hand. This plan does not get us past game and lets him know that honors outside of clubs help more.
E) 3C - tough, but clubs could be right strain, so should show tolerance
F) Pass. Considered 3H, but with bad breaks looming, took low road
G) Pass. Don’t see what contract I think we can make, and too chicken to double what could be a 8 or 9 card fit.
H) Diamond ten. Club and spade also tempting.
A B C D E F G H
procrastinator 2S Dbl P 2D; 4C 3C P P D10
SW 2S P P 2D; 4H 2N 3D Dbl CA
ST
BTDT 2S Dbl P 2D; 4H 3C P P S8
NN
veni vidi vici 2S P P 2D; 4C 3H P P CA
Abstract Actuary
Leading 2S P P P
A. 2S. Seems natural. I couldn’t find detailed notes that covered it to know if we are underbidding or overbidding here. I guess I also considered 2NT (to show higher end of range and a heart stopper) or 3S to show higher end of range. With 5 spades, 2 spades feels safe, but may be light (e.g., not showing enough strength or not disrupting opponents enough).
B. Dbl. Considered 2D. If the suits were reversed, that is partner opened 1D, I could show clubs, and partner could take us back to diamonds as his suit, then this would be my choice.
C. Pass. With weakness in the majors this seems like the only good option.
D. b.) 4D, 4NT. No matter his bid, I can sign off at 5H if I don’t like it. And we have a pretty good chance of slam, maybe even grand. Do these people prefer aggression?
E. 3H. Tough spot. Don’t love any bids. Considered 2NT with the partial stopper, but with the spade length behind me, NT is a really risky contract.
F. 3H. Chances are they have a club fit and will make. And this tells my partner I have strong hearts (6). And leaves east in the dark about west’s suit. I don’t love it.
G. 2S. We seem to have more strength, but they seem to have a confirmed moderate heart fit. We may be 4-3 in spades, but have to go for this, rather than risk them winning the heart contract.
On E, partner didn’t redouble to show half a stop or a stop like Kxx or Axx that should be in dummy. He also didn’t bid NT over the double. I think he should have done one of those things with a hand like Qxx xxx x AKQxxx, so I think we should worry his hand looks more like x xxx Kxxx AKQxx.
Couldn’t we double 3C for takeout on F? That seems much safer than bidding 3D in case the hand is a misfit. I mean I’m still passing, but I was surprised by no votes for double.
On G, isn’t the concern that we could be in a 3-3 spade fit if we bid 2S? West can have quite a few spades on this auction, and partner can easily be 3=2=4=4. (If he is 3=2=5=3 he might pull to 3D…or he might not.)
To take an extreme case, partner may have opened 1NT on KQJ xxx KQ10x KQJ. When you don’t like his 0 key card response, you can sign off at 5H, but you are down 1. The other big problem is that if you get a 5H response, you still don’t know if you can make a slam. You could easily be off the first two tricks in spades. Hence the appeal of trying to consult partner, even though there are no guarantees that we’ll reach the right spot that way either.
Understood. I know there are scenarios where I go down in 5H. Neither side is vulnerable, at IMPs. I didn’t go to the next level, but I guess I like the chance at slam better than the chance we miss slam in the other lines. Maybe I’m too used to playing with a bot partner, where I can’t trust his slam bidding.
Curious what the math is.
Prob end in 5H down x -50
Prob end in 5H makes x +420
Prob end in 6H down x -50
Prob end in 6H makes x +980
Prob end in 7H down x -50
Prob end in 7H makes x +1510
Can go one step further and compare to what we think the a. and c. options would have done in those scenarios, too.
