We were discussing herd immunity, so I think you have to count unvaccinated children against herd immunity even though they have a perfectly “acceptable” excuse for not being vaccinated. The virus doesn’t care what the reason is.
That said, since children are less likely to get it in the first place and seniors are more likely you could make adjustments for that. That was beyond the scope of my back of the envelope calculation.
In terms of impact on others health, I suspect not getting vaccinated and wearing no mask in an area with high covid rates is comparable to drunk driving in terms of its impact to public health. After all, most times driving drunk does not hurt anybody.
It is unlike drunk driving in that we have demagogues and humbugs arguing that vaccination and masks are dangerous, and i do not judge people for believing this in the same way i would judge them for thinking drunk driving is OK. I think many people are just trying to protect themselves and their families.
But the fact is that they are endangering everybody for reasons generally at odds with the facts.
Ninja risk acknowledged:
I don’t think we’re 198.5 years from eradicating Covid-19. If it can pass between humans and animals it will never be eradicated.
Fair point.
no, my point is, once the vaccine is approved for children, they will up that percent vaccinated. I assume that’s coming soon, right? Right now, children are at 0% which won’t be the ultimate number.
More than 5B doses of covid vaccine have been delivered worldwide. The US has distributed about 380M doses.
More Than 5.71 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker (bloomberg.com)
There have been relatively few serious side effects. The CDC estimated in August that vaccines had prevented 140K deaths.
Vaccines prevented up to 140,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. | National Institutes of Health (NIH)
To date, there have only been fewer than 7500 total deaths reported to VAERS among those who have recently been vaccinated, and that includes pretty much anyone who died of any medical cause in that time frame. Only a handful of those deaths are believed to be linked to the vaccine. But 7500 is the upper limit.
Selected Adverse Events Reported after COVID-19 Vaccination | CDC
Yeah, back in January, I understand that many people were hesitant, and weren’t comfortable being vaccinated just yet. But here we are more than 8 months later, and the data looks great. The Pfizer vaccine has been granted full approval in the US, and Moderna is expected to get it soon, too.
What are they waiting for?
I thought they got it, spread it, but usually didn’t have symptoms. So they’re actually the worst to miss for herd immunity.
in 200 years? who knows what medicine will bring in that time, or if civilization will even exist.
But we’ve eliminated measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, tetanus (which lives in the soil) and a couple of others. And we have several highly effective vaccines for covid. We could eliminate it. I expect several nations will.
I’m a little surprised it’s that high, but my guess is that the majority are pro-vax folks who are some combination of lazy and having a hard time fitting it into their busy schedule.
Eh, I don’t think a stop sign is evidence of this. Are we all supposed to intuitively know which intersections ought to be 2-way vs 4-way stops AND trust that the other drivers agree with us?
Otherwise agree with your post.
I would be fine with treating improperly masked unvaccinated folks exactly the same as we treat drunk drivers, FWIW. That’s probably a reasonable comparison.
If you’re against government mandates unless people aren’t doing what you want them to do, then you’re for government mandates.
8 months of vaccine data for a virus with a constantly changing story being told by people who come across as if they’re selling timeshares at Myrtle Beach is not completely convincing.
Wait, so you’re against vaccine mandates, but for criminal prosecution?
Yes, certainly. I don’t think my calculation will be the final number. We have by no means hit an equilibrium in terms of vaccinations.
I think they’re still saying before the end of the year for 6 - 11 years with 6 months - 5 years to follow at some point.
Some children under 12 are currently in trials, so it’s a little higher than 0%, but low single digits, certainly.
They certainly do get it and spread it, but I thought there was evidence that they get it at a somewhat lower rate than adults.
No we haven’t. My friend’s 2 month old son was hospitalized for like a month with whooping cough just a few years ago. It was awful.
Yes, we can probably reduce the risk to those levels, but it’s wrong to imply that we’ve eliminated those risks.
What about men who have beards? I don’t think there’s a good way to “properly” wear a mask if you have a beard. Are you ready to prosecute men you have a beard unless they are vaccinated?
Huh? People aren’t doing what Lucy wants them to do AND she’s opposed to this mandate.
She might be in favor of a different mandate though.
Mask mandates aren’t nearly as much of an infringement as vaccine mandates.
Yes, I am in favor of enforcing reasonable mask mandates, which includes pretty much every mask mandate I’m familiar with. I reserve the right to find a mask mandate that I think is unreasonable, but I can’t think of any I’ve seen related to Covid.