I was assuming it covered the U.S. from the start.
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It was very UK centric at the start but Trump has made our problems look insignificant in comparison. My hope for the UK is that he is proven to be so bad that Farage is finished here by association.
I get that. I’ve just been thinking the U.S. is a failing country for quite awhile. Have also felt the same way about the UK after going there for an interview and seeing similar things about the infrastructure there as in Detroit.
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The UK is a failing country (agreed) but it still has reasonably ok democracy.
Right now I basically see the US as the new Axis of Evil with Israel, and a couple of right-wing countries in Europe. All of those countries are now rogue states being controlled by extreme right-wing interests.
I would not want to live in those countries. I value real freedom far too much for that.
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At What Point Do You Leave A Failing Planet?
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I don’t think leaving the planet helps. Elmo’s claimed space.
TIL that New Zealand has a “retirement visa”, although the up-front investment requirement gives me pause, and I’m disappointed that the minimum age requirement is higher than “early retirement”.
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It’s all fun and games to be alarmist, especially as a statement against current politics or politicians. But the reality is that the US is still one of, if not the most thriving country in history. It may have literally the lowest chance of failure of any country on the planet right now.
The UK likely falls in a similar bucket based on raw economic, political, alliance and military power.
Note: I also am not happy about the current direction / administration. But felt the need for a bit of a reality check.
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I am not so sure about that anymore.
Well, i am not nearly that optimistic about the US. Or pessimistic about the rest of the world.
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But i visited Austria several years ago. Austria is interesting because it used to be the center of the world. And now it’s a backwater. And the people who live there clearly still think of it as being the center of the world. And i thought, i guess this is what the US could become, when we fall as a world power.
I couldn’t visit the Viennese synagogue, because they have enough security concerns that you need to apply in advance and get vetted. But mostly Vienna was a pleasant enough place.
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I’d argue the UK is very similar to Austria in its view that it’s the centre of the world. A lot of people still seem to think that the sun never sets in the British Empire, but most of the big parts of the Empire have long since gained their independence and it mostly consists of small islands now.
ETA: I think the key point is that it doesn’t take long to go from top of the heap to has been. I’d argue less than 40 years, perhaps less.
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Austria is a bit of a weird one.
Their importance now is mostly as a diplomatic cross-roads (many global organisations have HQs there), with a population that skews conservative and a slice of far-right (these guys have recently joined the governing coalition)
Like many countries in Europe, mass immigration has caused problems on the ground. We are seeing many populist movements spring up now that are anti-immigration and aligned with the far-right.
Its small country so it doesnt really move the needle much in as far as Europeans decisions are concerned. These days though, they can act as blockers with Hungary and Slovakia when decisions require unanimous approval at EU level.
It’s fair to criticize that within some echo chambers (and GoA qualifies, although it’s nowhere as echo-chamber-y as some other venues), discomfort with the direction of particular countries amplifies to levels at least approaching hysteria.
But it’s probably fair to ask how one would evaluate whether a country is failing.
Wikipedia suggests:
…and then it goes on to mention that recognized “failed states” are Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Libya, Mali, Myanmar, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, and possibly Venezuela.
Neither the US nor the UK are in realistic danger of becoming fully “failed states” anytime soon.
However, it may be worth considering where these countries stand on that list of criteria. I can’t speak to the UK, but I do have opinions on the US:
- Tax collection: The US is still collecting taxes, although it seems incapable of collecting sufficient revenue for its level of expenditures. The Trump 2.0 administration, to its credit and as much as I hate how it’s doing it, is at least taking some steps on the expenditure front, although I have little faith that the US is moving off its trajectory towards a less-than successful fiscal future.
- Law enforcement: The US is certainly in better shape than the list of failed states, and we do seem to be coming off a nadir of local law enforcement doing declining to do their jobs…but it’s kind of hard to say that the US is particularly successful when the head of the leading political party has a history of openly flaunting the law, and just gave a blanket pardon to hundreds of people who broke into a government building and fought authorities while doing so.
- Security assurance: Objectively, the US is doing better than many other countries in this regard, although depending on exactly how this criterion is evaluated…I’m certainly feeling less secure about my family’s future, or the future of the US as regards its international political and economic relations.
- Territorial control: I’ll admit that the Trump administration is likely to do more to exercise control over the US’s borders. However, many of the pressures on the American borders are the result of a failing system to facilitate the movement of people across the border, and the change in administration seems doomed to aggravate that situation.
- Political or civil office staffing: Well, the US certainly has had not much of a problem with getting people on payroll, but there have been reports of some functions having had years of chronic understaffing. The DOGE effort probably does have a good chance of reducing payroll, but the brute force approach being presented in the media, and the questionable priorities influencing decisions beg the questions of whether some government functions will fail due to lack of staff and resources.
- Infrastructure maintenance: US infrastructure isn’t anywhere near as bad as it is in many countries…but it also isn’t anywhere near as good as American exceptionalists believe it is/ought to be. The US has been inconsistent in the past few decades in taking steps to even maintain, much less improve, its infrastructure…and the long-term fiscal trajectory of the government gives me a pessimistic view of the future.
- Widespread corruption and criminality: It’s been nowhere near as visible in the US as in some other countries…but have you looked at the Trump family and the folks in orbit around the Trump 2.0 administration? And with controls intended to guard against corruption and abuse of power being removed at the federal level…
- Appearance of refugees and involuntary movement of populations: Objectively not as bad as countries on the failed state list, but in the past couple of weeks, we’ve started to see people being grabbed off the streets to be thrown out of the country, with some risk that properly-documented individuals may be caught up in the sweeps. It’s probably too soon to assess the potential this will generate a new crop of refugees…and they’d necessarily maintain a low profile domestically.
- Economic decline: In the past two weeks, we’ve been flirting with setting the stage for our first tariff-generated economic crash in about 130 years. And that’s on top of the potential consequences of perpetually-growing deficits, about to be exacerbated by a failure to have adequately funded Social Security and Medicare.
- Military intervention from both within and outside the state: I think there’s little risk of military intervention in the US from outside. However, the Trump 1.0 administration seemed frustrated in its ability to make use of the military to achieve some of its domestic goals, and the Trump 2.0 administration has, so far, seemed more competent in achieving its objectives.
Not mentioned in the Wikipedia blurb were other elements where the US can be viewed as having had the appearance of success. My own personal criterion of governmental success (which, I admit, has a sadly non-standard libertarian bent) is whether I can provide for me and my family, and live as I choose, subject to the necessary constraints of others wishing to do the same, with a minimum of government interference.
I’m at a point in life where, thanks to making actuary money, various inheritances, and not needing to provide for kids or grandkids, I had no major concerns about that. However, with the trajectory the country has been on, particularly as manifested in the past couple of weeks…at a minimum, I’m feeling an increased need to keep a low profile, lest I attract unwanted attention, and firewall myself off from “outside” due to frustrations that I am powerless to address. And, I won’t deny that my expectations about the future buying power of a dollar do widen the gap between the lifestyle I would like to live, and the lifestyle I’m planning for.
The US is still mostly a place of wonderous opportunity for fair-skinned, cis-gendered males who are not on a fixed income and who are either non-religious, or who at least pay lip-service to some flavors of Christianity. For the majority, however…the trajectory we’ve been on for the past few months is not a promising one.
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I am not expecting the US to become a failed state at that level. But I’m concerned that things are looking down for almost all sectors of society:
The poor: safety net may fray as Musk “disrupts” the government. If you can’t log into Twitter for awhile, meh. If your local food pantry shuts down you go hungry.
The sick: disruptions are even worse for the sick, and can be immediately life-threatening. Already, the CDC has shut down critical information that doctors use, and it looks like it will get worse.
The middle class: high inflation and massive unemployment seem to be on the horizon.
Minorities of any flavor: it’s become cool to be racist. Do i need to say more?
And things that cut across demographic lines:
Long-term growth: federal research fueled a very large fraction of US growth. The Internet was developed by the feds. The basic research that our pharmaceutical industry translated into new products (and massive profits) was funded by the NSF. The same is true if you poke into most “growth” areas of the economy.
Freedom of expression: news outlets are losing top journalists due to “editorial pressure”. Individuals are afraid their data will be misused by the feds.
Oh, and if you care, our international standing is plummeting. And not just because nations are upset about this or that Trump policy. The US is no longer reliable. A lot of world leaders (political, economic, and others) were educated in the US, and have a place in their hearts for the US. That will soon be a thing of the past. And if the dollar stops becoming the default international currency, we’ll be hurt in all sorts of ways.
It’s possible our GDP will increase, but it will be concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs, and won’t help the vast majority of the population in any way.
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So…Austria = Boston? 
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No Austria = Acela corridor. From DC north anyway.
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You’re saying that it’s not totally irrelevant. I don’t expect the US to ever become totally irrelevant if only because we are a major food producer.
The region will likely remain a major food producer. Historically large failed states tended to splinter into smaller states so if US became a failed state, the U in US would go away.
I agree. The disappointment will be that the US could have been so much more than it becomes. So much potential but……
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We could be on the way to losing our democracy. That’s not the same as a failed country, since of course there are thriving autocracies, but for people who think USA = freedom, it would feel that way.