AI has risks in medicine, not just opportunities.
“Oh good, we’re teaching robodroids martial arts” - no one ever
AI tools (Anthropic) are hitting wealth managers now.
UK seems to be the one country most heavily exposed to AI as its 80% services, with a high % of financial services.
Scott Galloway who has made it onto my FB feed told me last night to stop wasting 1% fees on wealth managers and just ask AI for the answers.
Not sure if I mentioned this previously, but Gemini has been pretty good with helping me reimagine some spaces in my house with updates. Take a picture, and tell it to “suggest some updates to make my kitchen more trendy” and it comes back with a range of cost options and modified pictures. Guessing these interior design consultants are going to be next.
Note: AI companies will find ways to monetize this. The basic versions are all free right now, but I expect that will ultimately be nerfed once the value added tasks can be extracted into a separate service.
The idea of product differentiation still remains a mystery to me.
You use basically the same stupid chatbot to generate anime fanfic or share your paranoid fantasies with that you can use to diagnose a rare illness, create an app, write a legal brief, or prove an Erdos problem. It’s all the same thing.
For example, Polymath was just talking about Anthropic releasing new agents that crashed a bunch of stocks. What are those cool new agents, exactly? They are prompts to use with generic claude. They look like this:
Maybe things will change but right now it’s like trying to monetize a 3 page pamphlet of instructions.
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Maybe the whole thing eventually becomes a subscription.
Like everything on the internet, 90% of the capacity will eventually be used to generate porn content, so why would Google give away a bunch of free servers for people to build content for pornhub and collect a subscription fee on an unrelated site?
Presumably they have ways to prevent the AI from generating illegal content. They can probably use an AI to determine if the request meets a subscription fee service.
The free versions will be extremely limited in what they can do by the end of the year. Investors are already worried about the capital spends. They need to demonstrate revenue generation.
OK, I looked up the actual number, its more like 30%, not 90%. TIL.
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30% is down from the last time I cared enough to be aware of the metric.
The last I heard was “over 50%”, but that was when Netflix was still primarily a replacement for Blockbuster, rather than the current condition of streaming video from multiple providers replacing cable TV.
The free versions are already limited. They perform fewer requests per hour. Some are less capable/intelligent. Some can’t utilize the providers app/ecosystem. Some can’t guarantee full privacy.
So it’s not like there no reason to get a subscription. What I mean is that the amount of value generated has little to do with the service. You could be spending $20/month to generate porn. Or you could be spending $20/month to cure cancer. There’s hardly any difference. You could also be doing either of those things, using a free version, it’s just more convenient to use the paid versions.
I guess you might compare it to buying an operating system? Where there’s some level of lock-in, due to horizontal integration. But the OS provider doesn’t care what you are doing with it-- you could be curing cancer or watching porn. But it seems to me that part of the $trillion valuations comes down to the assumption people will pay extra for curing cancer?
Anyway, AIs can usually block illegal content. Porn of course is not illegal, but there’s a reputation risk. And certainly people would very much like to generate illegal porn. I assume, in the long run, someone is going to want to be the provider of AI legal porn, because there’s money in that… I’m not sure exactly how/if we will block illegal porn. I imagine there’s a huge market for deepfake porn. And even if we block foreign providers, people will create deepfakes on their own devices.
Why do you need a realtor to figure out pricing strategy when you can just upload all the recent sales listings and prices and get a recommendation…
Some states don’t list prices once they’re sold.
New jobs for humans closing doors of self driving cars.
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We’ve finally found our calling in the post AI world.
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What’s that hourly rate work out to be?
On the whole, I think that the industry that has been worst hit by AI has been marketing/advertising.
Its been a veritable bloodbath in the UK so far
I would randomly guess translation. We went from completely broken garbage to instantly interpreting nuance, tone, and idiom. And now starting to get acceptable speech recognition snd voice acting to match it.
I can get anything marketing done in five minutes and for free, stuff that would take weeks and thousands of dollars otherwise. And ai does a much better job. Proposals, websites, anything like that. I have really upped my game, my competition are now dinosaurs.
If I was in marketing id be learning AI prompts.
AI is letting you implement your own ideas much faster (and cheaper) by cutting out the middle men. You still need experience to create those ideas though.
Which ties it back to: AI makes experienced people more productive.
Its going to be super tough for younger people though, as they come into the world of work with no real experience.
Not sure this is something that can be fixed either. There just won’t be enough entry-level roles to go around anymore (vs pre-AI) so we are likely looking at higher levels of structural unemployment in the short-term.