Looks a lot better vs UK
Latest 10Y Projection (2022 vs 2032)
Found the chart below on 20th century births in the US. I also looked up the 2021 actuarial life table, which showed that 85 years of age is the most common age to die and >50% of deaths happen between 74 and 92.
The two lowest live birth years below are 1935 and 1940 (the years in between are not shown), which would correspond to turning 85 in the years 2020 and 2025. One would expect to see a low point of deaths in the last 5 years. However, because of COVID, that didn’t happen, so the low point will likely be delayed. This will probably mean that births will continue to outnumber deaths for a few more years.
Coming out the other side, those born in 1957, the highest birth year, will most likely die in 2042. Deaths should peak around then, assuming no war, pandemic or other significant change in life expectancy.
Norwegian fertility rate has collapsed to 1.43 (2023) from 1.98 (2009)
If Norway (a very wealthy country by global standards) cannot fix the underlying fertility rate I don’t see how other countries will be able to do so even with cash incentives.
Wow, hard to imagine what can reverse the decline in fertility rates. I suppose more support for invitro since people are starting so late now?
I think thats one part of the equation (also can be solved fairly quickly). Expensive housing is the largest driver of lower fertility rates (makes sense as couples will want stability before settling down and having children), but thats a more complex problem that will take longer to solve.
At the population level, what you want is a fertility rate around 1.7/1.8 (given that is highly unlikely that we will ever get back to the 2.1 replacement rate) so that the demographic deterioration is attenuated.
Not much choice in the western world. If those fertility rates are not increased, we will likely see a lot more political polarisation and chaotic governments due to long-term funding problems (pensions and healthcare) as people will inavariably end up fighting over scarcer resources.
If you run the numbers, 1.4 is catastrophic for pensions and healthcare. But if you have something around 1.7/1.8, you can potentially make things work economically and politically-speaking.
There’s also immigration which Canada is doing, but several Asian countries are not.
Environmentally, I’m fine with falling birth rates if we’re going to push so hard against reducing carbon emissions in our lives.
this is the thing i hear from young people when they talk about starting families. like, they already feel cash strapped and the impact of adding a child when it also comes with lost income…they don’t see a way through it that doesn’t make them feel “poor”. that’s from folks who are renting an apartment, not who bought too much house instead of a “starter home”. even giving away invitro has to align with someone wanting to go through the treatments
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As the population shrinks the issue of housing supply should somewhat resolve…
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Not if landlords continue to buy up housing stock
If demand for housing declines, I suspect the value of housing as an investment declines, unless existing homes get destroyed.
this takes a long time to play out and will be of no solace to people trying to buy a home now
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I wish the UK (and quite a few other European countries really) were as realistic as the Danes.
One of my favourite countries in Europe because they never shy away from taking on the difficult issues (like immigration and pensions)
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Japan’s total population declined for the 14th straight year in 2024, with the percentage of those age 65 and older hitting a record 29.3%, according to internal affairs ministry data released Monday.
the rest of the article
As of October, the total population — which includes Japanese and foreign residents — was 123.8 million, down 550,000 or 0.44% from a year before. Japan’s population has been falling year on year since 2011 after peaking in 2008.
As the number of older citizens grew, the younger population declined, exacerbating the country’s aging society.
Those under 15 years old made up 11.2% of the total population at 13.83 million, down 343,000 from the previous year and marking the lowest figure ever. The age group has been declining since 1975.
Meanwhile, the number of those age 65 and above increased by 17,000 to 36.24 million.
The population of only Japanese nationals stood at 120.3 million, down 898,000 from the year before.
In contrast, Japan saw a net social increase of 340,000 people — marking the third consecutive year of growth — driven entirely by a continued rise in the number of foreign residents. Net social difference is calculated by subtracting the number of people who departed Japan from those who entered the country.
As of October, only two prefectures — Tokyo and Saitama — saw population growth within the past year. Tokyo recorded the highest growth rate at 0.66%, an increase of a 0.32 percentage point from the previous year, while Saitama reversed its previous trend of decline, posting a 0.01% increase.
The population numbers of the 45 other prefectures declined. Eighteen prefectures saw a population decrease of over 1%, including Akita (1.87%), Aomori (1.66%), and Iwate (1.57%).
Population decline accelerated in 34 prefectures, with Ishikawa showing the largest year-on-year decrease. On the other hand, nine prefectures saw their rate of decline slow, including Fukui.
In a breakdown of population by prefecture, Tokyo ranked at the top with 14.18 million, followed by Kanagawa (9.23 million), Osaka (8.76 million), Aichi (7.46 million) and Saitama (7.33 million).
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Monday that the government is implementing various measures to address the issue, such as boosting financial support for child-rearing, increasing wages for the younger generations and offering matchmaking opportunities.
“We will continue to promote policies competitively toward the realization of a society in which everyone who wishes to have children can have children and raise them with peace of mind,” he said.
Also on the Japan story:
Fertility rates have further decreased in 2024 to 1.15 (from 1.20 in 2023)
No point in sugar-coating this one: this is full blown demographic collapse and Japan is in serious economic trouble now.
I wonder when someone is going to think it’s a good idea to draft women, put them in red robes, and “encourage” an increase in birth rates in a Gilead-esque manner.
Jeez, 1.15. How low can you go
Only if the red robes undo menopause I think
The birth rates are still positive numbers, so there must be a few fertile women available.
If birth rates go negative then we’re in real trouble
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UNITED KINGDOM
The qualifying age will rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028. The next rise to 68 is technically not scheduled until the mid 2040s, which will affect those born from 6 April 1977.
The last two reports in 2017 and 2023 recommended speeding up the increase to 68, but the Conservative government ignored them, and current Labour leaders could do the same.
…
A recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed to government modelling on how to limit public spending on the state pension to below 6 per cent of national income.To achieve this AND retain the triple lock state pension guarantee, it worked out the state pension age would have to rise to 69 by 2048–49, and then jump to 74 by 2068–69 - which would be bad news for people in their 30s and younger now.