I know that it’s ridiculously early, but I came across this map on Reddit and thought it worth sharing:
Click to enbiggen. Note the disclaimer that long-term population estimates are subject to high degrees of variability.
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Not great overall, particularly FL/NY/TX/CA.
Perhaps that fabled TX shift to purple/blue can happen in 6 years, but in that time I only see it being a little more purple, for state elections mostly.
Just as troubling: Texas has fully drunk the gerrymandering Kool Aid. Tennessee has as well.
(In fairness, so has Illinois, and New York certainly tries its darndest.)
I’m skeptical of the Texas and Florida numbers. I think their going full MAGA is going to decimate their tech sector in a few years. Young professionals who are looking to start families are going to want to avoid their draconian tendencies.
Moves from California to other western states should continue imo.
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I know some LGBT people who have moved out of Florida. Never knew anybody living in Texas, but if women especially aren’t seriously considering a move I’d be surprised. But it’ll be mostly the wealthy and educated who leave, further brain-draining a state that already has significantly higher poverty than countrywide average.
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I have to think about climate change. Warm places in the South and West have been gaining population ever since air conditioning got common. Lots of people got tired of the cold and snow.
But, if we start having back-to-back “hottest summer on record”, I wonder if that will change.
And also climate change vis a vis homeowners insurance. With the giant increases already in FLA, I infer that the cat re market is pretty tight these days. What’d they have? Like 7 or 8 PC insolvencies the last couple of years. National carriers ceasing to even renew. Huge strain on the FLA state run backstop coverage, which will have to raise rates as well.
They also made state regs wrt Champlain Towers, mandating minimum capital reserves on condos. More monthly fees.
Cost of living in FL is headed up, losing one of its major draws. That and the general problem of the state economy being so tilted towards construction. IIRC, obstruction was just north of 20% of the economy. Peeps gonna want jobs.
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Guessing people (as a blob, not each individual) will start slowly creeping northward due to climate change. Creeping toward dams with reservoirs and generators. Or, people just go full snowbird with two residences.