So nearly 3 months later, Cleveland (+1 over .500 with 11 games to play), Toronto(-1, 11 games) and Texas (-2, 12 games) seem to be the contenders for the 6th playoff spot/final WC spot. 1 in 7 still seems like a reasonable probability to me. If not one of these teams gets hot over the next 13 days, and one stumbles into the playoffs as a default, that team could conceivably be an 80 win team.
All are negative run differential teams
Another possibility is Houston and Texas can both play losing baseball and the 3 seed will host a wild card with a losing record, possibly against another team with a losing record for the right to play the team with the 4th best record who gets a 1st round bye.
While the 2nd and 3rd best records play each other before taking on the top seed in the divisional round.
Yeah, you are correct in including the 'Stros as being a weak contender too.
I still think the biggest surprise team this season was the Red Sox going from last place into the hottest AL team.
I think the biggest surprise player this season was PCA, who finished awful last year, and started awful this seaon, but is having the most memorable Cub season since Sammy Sosa in 1998, and the best unenhanced Cub season since Ryno Sandberg in '84.
I saw a national pundit (not a local Chicago media fan boy) saying Happ, PCA, and Suzuki could all be worthy of winning a gold glove this season. Happ is legit, and he already has a shelf full of GGs. Suzuki may be a stretch. PCA makes them both look better because he just gets to so many extra fly balls.
Red Sox over under at season start was 87.5, them getting off to a 12-19 start was surprising, them playing 21-4 ball in July was even more surprising.
The Rays over under was 76.5 wins, you could have cashed that ticket before labor day.
The White Sox over under was 67.5 - Iâd say the rebuild is at least a year or two ahead of schedule.
The biggest disappointments are the Mets and Mariners who had over under of 90.5 and 89.5 respectively. And the Mariners were a couple innings away from their first WS last year.
You have no idea how many Mets fans were torn between taking that pretty obvious under and believing in the team. We all chose similarly, and none of us will be making money on that bet.
I donât bet against my teams
Why not both? Then itâs a win-win. Win.
Well, Loss-Win. Win.
Or, Win-Loss. Win.
Canât do it. Wonât do it. Unless itâs Pete hitting a home run in Queens, might have placed that bet.
In case I was cryptic⌠we all just didnât bet the Under even though we had zero faith in the front office moves and that division. But we got a big moment from Pete last night, so thereâs that!
I follow this logic when Iâm betting on the Yankees 
Iâll be there tonight wearing my Alonso Jersey
I donât bet
Both our teams let their fans down but the White Sox are better positioned.
Over .500 could be considered âon a runâ lately for those in AL contention. Only Cleveland has done that over the last 10 games.
Detroit has been doing well of late and thatâs who the White Sox face next for four games.
A thing against the White Sox is that Tex and Tor play each other, so someone is guaranteed to win at least a couple games. The White Sox need to start winning to make the playoffs.
Sadly, Detroitâs renaissance started AFTER they blew three leads against Cleveland.
Detroit realistically needs to go 10-0 from here on in to get last WC spot. They can be spoilers though. They already greatly diminished Jaysâ chances.
My answer is that most players come through the draft and are told they they will not both pitch and hit. Still old-school baseball ruling the draft and minor leagues. It is too much work for the coaches and managers and trainers.
Shohei, OTOH, proved he could do it elsewhere, and he had a hand in saying what he would do, else he could stay where he was.
3 games separate the 4-9 records in the AL
CLE
CHW -0.5
HOU -1.5
TEX -1.5
TOR -2
BAL -3
Obviously one of CLE/CHW and one of HOU/TEX will be in a DIV winners. So 4 teams fighting for 1 spot.
Itâs the time of the year where your rooting inclinations change and it gets confusing. I was watching Texas Boston tonight and was annoyed when Texas gave up a big home run late in the game. But wait. Thatâs exactly what I wanted to happen.
Scoreboard watching is so much fun and so confusing at the same time.