Nebraska was in the AAU at the time it was accepted into the B1G. It was voted out of the AAU after being accepted, IIRC after it formally entered the B1G, but that was OK because … rea$on$.
I can’t explain why AAU membership is a big deal. I’m not a B1G president or member of a B1G school who decides who gets in and who doesn’t. I just know when expansion gets mentioned, you don’t hear about non-AAU schools getting a ticket to the club. That’s why Kansas and Iowa State (now no longer in the AAU) were candidates to jump from the Big 12, and Texas before that, but not Oklahoma or Baylor or other Big 12 schools that athletically would have been a solid fit and filled a geographic hole.
Now saw an article that Utah says they are fully committed to the PAC-?? and that the presidents have given the go ahead for the commissioner to negotiate a new rights deal.
Huh, wondering why USC isn’t there. Not that I am a fan, but I’ve been reading the local rag that’s all agog at the legitimately (that’s a first) paid USC players.
So, what will USC have to do, besides get lucky and have less than four other teams undefeated?
Well:
Win every game.
Besides ND, win all games by 20 or more, to show utter dominance.
Need Pac12 teams and ND to beat Power 5 Conference teams, to provide the conference and air of credibility.
On #3:
ASU at OkSt
UA v MissSt
Cal at ND, kind of a push, since it would better for USC to beat an undefeated ND at the end of the season
CU at Minn
UO at UGA, big one.
OSU v BSU, not sure if this counts.
Stan at ND, same as Cal comment
UCLA, officially pussed out
UU at UF big one.
UW v MichSU
WSU at UWisc
So to help USC’s cause, need a decent winning record, and the losers to the Pac12 teams need second place or better result in their respective divisions.
Not too much to ask, probably harder than hoping for as few undefeated teams as possible.
OK, so with an official Poll released, we can unveil our GoA College Football Ranker.
The presumption is that the Conference is more important than which specific team.
Undefeated SEC Champion
Undefeated Big10 Champion
Undefeated ACC Champion
Undefeated Big 12 Champion
Undefeated ND
Undefeated Pac12 Champion
Once-Beaten SEC Champion
Once-Beaten Big10 Champion
Once-Beaten ACC Champion
Once-Beaten Big 12 Champion
Once-Beaten ND
Once-Beaten Pac12 Champion
We’ll add more these categories disappear. I expect whining from some other independent fans thinking their team will actually go undefeated. It’s a pretty good schedule, AND those teams will have to end up pretty highly ranked (top two in divisions) to get that team anywhere. I could put them in #7, noting that they’d move up automatically by beating ND. I’ll add them after 9/17, if still eligible and if they beat UO better than UGA beat them.
OK, here are some “predictions” but the important stuff is left out:
Clemson loses a non-conference game. To whom?? So, ND? say so! not LaTech or Furman, that’s for certain. But, they still make the playoff. Unfortunately, the article does not discuss ND’s season.
tOSU will lose a conference game. To whom??? They seem to beat ND, so, cool. Let’s check the upset of the year… nope, it’s “Purdue over PSU.” Really? tOSU loses a game and it’s not the upset of the year?
So, not mentioned but seemingly implied, is that the CFP is: Clem (explicitly noted), UGA and 'bama (both undefeated, close SEC championship game), and tOSU (one loss, other P5 champs with two losses).
It’s too bad that a lot of the websites reaming terrible sports writing (FJM) have gone. Just ran out of steam, couldn’t keep up, and the shitty writers win the long game.
Checking “awfulannouncing” and nothing mortifying comes up. “Oh no’s some kid shaded Keith Hernandez for putting ketchup on his hotdog!” BFD.
I might have to add an “undefeated BYU” in here somewhere, maybe combined with ND, since they play each other. Local rag says they could be in the conversation at the end, but that means essentially they are in the conversation now.
If you need a subscription:
Utah
Texas A&M
OkSU
BYU
USC
Again, the AO/GoA Conference Method is far simpler.
I mean, if any of these teams go undefeated, they will certainly be in the CFP. That also means that several other contenders/givens will NOT be undefeated.
Regarding Utah:
Utah should field a playoff-worthy team. But can it navigate a tough schedule featuring Saturday’s opener at Florida and a late-season trip to Oregon? If it wins one of those games and takes care of business where it should — including a home tilt against USC on Oct. 15 — then it will be playoff-bound.
No, it has to win ALL of the games, or hope that a bunch of other teams are not undefeated.
TA&M:
Texas A&M plays at Alabama this season and the Crimson Tide are likely to avenge last year’s hiccup in College Station. But the Aggies should be favored in every other game they play. An 11-1 record with the lone loss to Alabama would put them in position to claim that No. 4 spot. Still, my gut tells me coach Jimbo Fisher’s program remains a year or two away from bursting through the playoff wall.
They would need a close loss to 'bama, AND again, a bunch of once-defeated teams.
OkSU:
Oklahoma State has a path to 11-1 if it can split road games against Baylor and Oklahoma. This time, the Cowboys would have to finish the job and get to 12-1.
Again, GO UNDEFEATED!! Also, playing two shitty non-conf and ASU (not the marquee non-conf opponent) and losing a game might not get you there, especially if there is some three-way tie for first in the Big12 and they are tie-broke out of the conference championship.
BYU:
For BYU to make the playoff, it needs multiple opportunities to make a statement, and it certainly has them in 2022. Go 11-1 against this gantlet, especially if that record includes a win over Notre Dame, and the Cougars will be knocking on the playoff door.
UNDEFEATED! Beat those teams! And bigly! And if you can win at ND (assuming ND doesn’t go 7-5, you can win all those other games!
USC:
Despite a 4-8 record last season and not sniffing a semifinal berth in the history of the CFP, USC is receiving the fifth-lowest odds to win the national championship behind Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson.
Well, bettors sometimes know what’s up. Or it’s just a shitload of money from the So Cal area dropping the odds.
But the schedule is favorable, giving the Trojans a shot. Beat Utah or Notre Dame and take care of the rest and they’re in the Pac-12 title game with a shot to reach the CFP.
Doesn’t seem all that favorable. I mean, there is UU and ND to beat. And if they are shit (we’ll see this Saturday for tOSU-ND), then a “favorable schedule” translates to an easy schedule, and that is a tiebreaker for the CFP voters.
I doubt an UNDEFEATED BYU gets there unless they have some dominating wins against their toughest P5 competition. I’m a homer but a realist.
And that statement about USC seems possibly inconsistent. Beat Utah or ND? They lose to Utah and they could be shut out of the conference championship game.
No, I just hadn’t expected it to happen. The are #25 or so, and IF they go undefeated, and IF the teams they beat (BAY, UO, ND, STAN) have very few losses,
I mean, just because everyone on the team got a full ride doesn’t make them better.
The whole article starts from the “team” focus and not the “conference” focus. That’s is why the article fails. If ANY team in a Power 5 conference goes undefeated, they will likely be in the CFB (assuming only four undefeateds). So, why focus on these five?
BYU has no Conference, so if has some consideration, it is because it’s a possibly great team, and if it rolls over the Power 5 teams it plays, it will march up the rankings, while other teams drop. Beating Oregon might help if Oregon beats Florida. If ND beats tOSU (currently #5 ND is a 17 point underdog), beating ND will be HUGE.
Most of this is about tOSU-ND (home team first) but at the bottom, someone’s finally coming around to discussing conference probabilities:
Pac-12 needs a big Week 1 win
The Pac-12 is already in trouble. That’s in part due to the weakness of the conference in general and in part because FPI isn’t really buying an instant USC turnaround with Lincoln Riley at the helm.
The conference’s best shot at a playoff appearance is Utah with a 7% chance. And the Utes face a critical nonconference game in Week 1 – one of only two contests Utah is not favored in this year – at Florida. Meanwhile, the conference’s second-most likely playoff team – Oregon – has a brutal opening matchup against Georgia that FPI estimates Oregon has just a 9% chance of winning.
If both Pac-12 teams fall in Week 1, the entire conference’s chance to put any team in the playoff would drop under 4%. Unlike the example above with Ohio State, the Pac-12 teams are no shoo-ins to receive a playoff berth with a 12-1 record and a conference championship. In fact, as the Predictor sees it: Each would have under a 50% shot to be selected in such a scenario.
