2021 NFL Football Thread

Keeping with tradition, it is time to start discussing 2021 NFL Football.

First, congrats to Tampa Bay.
Now, enough of that. Let’s check in on the way-too-early Power Rankings, based on nothing concrete (a panel of writers, editors and TV personalities, so, nothing concrete, besides their heads… hey-yo!!).

Prediction: Perhaps not in 2021, but Aaron Rodgers eventually plays for Bill Belichick.

So, is JJ Watt already in the “I’ll take a pay cut for a Super Bowl win” stage of his career?

I mean, he should realize that only the Texans would consider paying him for past Texans performance in some way. Every other team will offer what they think his future value is worth, while constricted by the Cap.

Make this simple and go to PIT with your brothers.

Isn’t 10 years, 31+, no post season recognition last 2 years (and 1 in last 5) about right for that?

Guess so. He had one year left on his contract. Guess he didn’t want to spend it bashing his head for no good reason except for money. And, I’m guessing the Texans didn’t think they’d get anything in trade for him, or there were other cap-related issues to trading him versus “mutually part ways.”

Bump, for a plus 1 to the football season.

Yes, this extra game enhances the quality of the NFL ’ experience for the fans.
Good news, I guess, is that one of my fantasy leagues can go back to one-on-one playoff season. Currently, with 17 weeks, and the last week being a random tossup, fantasy regular season was 14 weeks (three divisions of four teams makes 14 games perfect), first playoff round has been two three-ways (three division champs, two wild-card based on record, and most points scored out of the last seven), with top records picking which other teams to play against, and then a final between the two winners.
Now, with 18 weeks, can be done in Week 17 with top two division champs getting byes in the first round.
Too bad for the players, whose average career length (assuming exposure is a factor) has now been shortened by 6%.

Darnold to Panthers.

Interesting story about Trey lance off NDSU.

Prediction: he’s drafted by NE, because the rest of the QB-needy teams won’t take the chance.

This makes me both :ctm: & :iatp:

Article on #1 drafted QBs.

What’s lost in this is that those eventual Super Bowl Champions didn’t do it in their first seasons, and these days that’s all that matters.
Eli won a Super Bowl three years after he was drafted.
Elway won a Super Bowl 14 years after he was drafted.
Peyton won a Super Bowl eight years after he was drafted.

Thanks, MLS!

Due to more games being played (and concerts), Panthers have decided to switch to FieldTurf.

BOA’s grass surface consistently has ranked among the best in the NFL, according to surveys by the NFL Players Association. The NFLPA historically has been against artificial surfaces.

Players are not important.

Long time Atlanta sports writer Schultz says “I believe there’s no better than a 50-50 chance [Julio] plays another game in Atlanta”. If Julio is dealt, I’m guessing news comes out today or tomorrow as I imagine the asking price would be a day 2 draft pick(s).

Does anyone else question the “can’t miss” Trevor Lawrence? I do not see the same characteristics that other top picks had.

In reading scouting reports, Fields info reads better. Weaknesses of each below.

Weaknesses Lawrence:

  • Could improve his anticipation.
  • Has a tendency to get lazy in some moments.
  • Usually operates out of read 1 options and could benefit from an extended playbook.
  • Won’t be the speediest of QBs but can get the job done in the run game if needed.
  • Can have tunnel vision when going through defensive reads.

Weaknesses Fields

  • Needs to Read Defenses Better
  • Decision Making
  • Can Force Plays
  • Ball Placement

Even on the positive characteristics, there is attempt to downplay Fields and emphasize weird things for Lawrence. Fields is described as a gunslinger although his completion percentage is high, accurate but not precise but great throwing technique, quick, elusive and accurate on the move. Lawrence is consistent and a leader with great velocity and arm strength and able to escape pressure.

I get he throws off a lot of first reads. I imagine most top college QBs do since they play at programs with significant talent advantages. Whoever takes Lance and Jones before Fields will get fired sooner rather than later. I get why Lawrence is going #1 and it is a safe pick. Sometimes you need to turn off the noise.

My Top 10 prediction tonight-

1 - Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
2 - Zach Wilson (NYJ)
3 - Trey Lance (SF)
4 - Kyle Pitts (ATL)
5 - Penei Sewell (CIN)
6 - Justin Fields (DEN via MIA)
7 - Rashawn Slater (DET)
8 - Patrick Surtain II (CAR)
9 - Ja’Marr Chase (MIA via DEN)
10 - Jaycee Horn (DAL)

I’m not sure any QB is worthy of being the #1 pick.

Curious if Burrow would have wanted a big tackle or good WR. Would guess tackle since WRs become much better playing for QBs w time and a running game.

No player is a “Can’t Miss” player. There’s always room for failure to meet expectations. The word on Trevor Lawrence was that he seems as good as any QB that typically comes out “once in a decade” kind of thing, which means his prospects compare to other such guys (Elway, P Manning, Luck). The thing is that he is going to Jacksonville, which is a bad team.

QBs are always a crap shoot. There are at least as many busts as those that meet expectations. The ones that exceed expectations are few and far between. Lots of #1 picks have ended up as busts: David Carr, Jamarcus Russell, Sam Bradford

If there is a way to exploit Fields’ weaknesses, the Bears will find a way.

One stat to illustrate this point: how many QB’s taken in the first round from 2007 to 2016 are still with the team that drafted them? Note not all are busts, but for one reason or another the team decided to move on.


The answer is one: Matt Ryan. Pretty sure that’s out of 26 first round picks in that interval

I linked (Post #10) an ESPN story with data from #1 QBs since 1970.

Da Bears moving? Well, just 30 miles, though, really, it could move anywhere it damn well it wants.

New site is right next to a train line. Convenient!