2021 cost trends?

Can anyone on the payer side share some rough ranges around what you are expecting for CY2021 with respect to medical/pharmacy cost trends for this year? Doesn’t have to be super-precise. I’m sure we are anticipating some bounce back from 2020, but how much? How likely is it we’ll see a +10% or a +15% trend?


Depends heavily on the Plan Design, which will distort trend differently.
I know places not using 2020 experience, the COVID distorted experience and thus trend.

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Can you share a bit more about benefit design and how that ripples out? Do you think there are broad differences between MA and employer plans?

Maybe not MA.
I might PM you, though on my particular area. 'cause privacy. If I can figure out how.

Do note that most of the hospitalizations and long stays there are concentrated in old people.
And a bulk of everyone else got a bare minimum of health care, if any at all.
So, MA, bunches of old people, versus Employer plans with fewer old people. And then split out some industries that got hit a little harder (though those particular industries (meat-packing) might not provide health insurance for their most exposed workers).

You do the Math, man!!

PM sent.