2020 Census and Congressional Realignment

The 2020 Census figures are supposed to get released today. As always there will be some winners and losers:

predicted losers:

  • California
  • New York
  • Rhode Island
  • Minnesota
  • Michigan
  • Illinois
  • Pennsylvania
  • Ohio

predicted winners:

  • North Carolina
  • Florida
  • Texas
  • Montana
  • Arizona
  • Oregon
  • Colorado

Does anybody else see an overall trend here?

I’m sitting in on their official release/announcement at 3pm… excitement!

My wife worked for the census. I was pretty amazed at the process…it was 2020, and we still had so many households getting answered by having somebody knock on their door and ask questions. Something like 70% of households filled it out online, and the rest had a knock.

If I had gotten a knock, would have said “sorry, I forgot, I will do it online”, but lots of folks preferred to answer to a stranger in person. I assume some did because my wife is hot.


So…Florida Man expected to win again?

Warm weather, Marijuana, and Montana

Please don’t start a “State Riddle” thing. Those never end well… or at all, really.


waiting for the press conference…

it’s started!

0.7% per year growth, 2010 - 2020

7 seats shifting in 13 states

States that will GAIN a seat in Congress

  • MT
  • OR
  • CO
  • TX (+2)
  • NC
  • FL

States that will LOSE a seat

  • WV
  • PA
  • NY
  • OH
  • MI
  • CA
  • IL

No surprises to me except Rhode Island being listed, and South Carolina NOT being listed.

ETA: I guess I’m also surprised that Georgia isn’t on there as a winner.

Wow, West Virginia loses a seat; they didn’t have much to start with as is.

I have the board game 1960: The Making of a President. It’s got the electoral vote amounts that were used in that election. It’s interesting how different the counts are from today. New York had WAY more seats, and Florida was staggeringly lower than today.

They’re the only state that lost population

Air conditioning (and filling in the swamps/heavy use of DDT)

Yeah, I think AC had a massive effect on population density of the US.

Maybe I’ll have to stop making jokes about how few people in in Montana.

NY was 89 people away from not losing a seat

I wonder if that’s the thinnest margin by which a state has lost a seat.

I knew that air conditioning was a major factor in when Florida’s population expanded, but I thought it had already started to happen by this time. The 1960 election would have been from the 1950 census to apportion seats, so I guess it was still ongoing during that time. Sometime when I have time to blow (and shouldn’t be wasting time on this forum like I am now), I’ll have to look and see how different the 1960 census was.

Starting w 1950, here’s how Florida’s apportionment went:

8, 12, 15, 19, 23, 25, 27, 28 (2020)

New York’s apportionment for the same period:

43, 41, 39, 34, 31, 29, 27, 26

Naw, AC existed in 1960, but it was fabulously expensive, noisy, and typically smelly.

I was born in 1974, and grew up, initially, in Savannah… and my school didn’t have A/C. My house did, but just in one room, iirc.