OK, one match left for four groups.
Group B is a bit crazy. All four teams within 3 points of each other.
tiebreakers are no longer goal difference in group first. That is actually #6. It’s
Head-to-head points;
Head-to-head goal differential;
Head-to-head goals scored,
Head-to head away goals scored.
So, the 9 possibilities:
RMA win, INT win: they both advance, as INT has the first tiebreaker of most points between INT (4) and MON (1). MON to Europa League.
RMA win, INT draw: MON and RMA advance, as MON beat SHA twice.
RMA win, INT lose: RMA and SHA advance. MON to Europa League.
RMA draw, INT win: MON and RMA advance, as RMA beat INT twice, INT to Europa.
RMA draw, INT draw: MON and SHA advance, as SHA beat RMA twice, RMA to Europa.
RMA draw, INT lose: MON and SHA advance, RMA in Europa.
RMA lose, INT win: MON and INT advance, SHA in Europa.
RMA lose, INT draw: MON and SHA advance, RMA in Europa.
RMA lose, INT lose: MON and SHA advance, RMA in Europa.
In Group A, RBS must beat ATM to advance. LOC must have a better points result vs BAY than RBS has vs ATM to get to Europa.
In Group C, OLY holds the #4 tiebreaker. MAR must have a better points result vs MCI than OLY does vs POR to get to Europa.
In Group D, Ajax must beat ATA to advance, else Europa.
In Groups E, F, G, H:
E is complete with one match left.
F has DOR through, with BRU needing to beat LAZ to advance, else Europa.
G has BAR and JUV advancing, playing each other for first Pot, JUV needing to win by at least two goals AND score more than two goals (a 0-2 win on the road will not do). Meanwhile, DYN and FTC play for Europa spot, FTC need either to win or to draw at 3 or more.
H is the fun one. IBS has been eliminated. Tiebreaker rules are a bit different from, say, the NFL where when three teams are tied and one is eliminated you start over at tiebreaker #1. No, that third team is STILL counted for tiebreaker #2, but no longer in contention. (Says wiki.) So, a current three-way tie has MUN at top because MUN and PSG have six points while RBL has only three, but has a +4 GD among the THREE teams, PSG has +3.
So:
Winners of either final two matches are in.
The only way PSG are out is if they lose AND the other match is a draw. PSG hold tiebreakers on either loser of other match.
I just got a note from Liverpool FC. I was one of 3 lucky fans to win the lottery to play in Denmark for the final game. I was hoping to play up front, but am starting at CH. Will be wearing 54 for Bobby Wagner. Glad to be able to save the lads for the next round and EPL games.
MUN almost makes it.
PSG match suspended, probably won’t get played, PSG will accept Pot 2.
UPDATE: will be played tomorrow.
Oh, and if the “goal difference” is not a tiebreaker, then there is no reason to include it in the standings. This goes out to CBS All-Access and ESPN.com, and any other news agency publishing standings.
Just for fun, I checked the UCL teams advancing versus the Pots they were placed in for the draw.
(Actually, a wiki page already shows this.)
So, number of Advancers, by Pot
Pot 1: 7
Pot 2: 5
Pot 3: 3
Pot 4: 1
Number of Europa drops by Pot:
Pot 1: 0
Pot 2: 3
Pot 3: 4
Pot 4: 1
Number of Eliminated teams by Pot:
Pot 1: 1
Pot 2: 0
Pot 3: 1
Pot 4: 6
These all seem reasonable, in the way that a ball bounces, or as Chris Berman would say, “That’s why we play the games.”
We have until February to look at those.
And I hope CBS Sports Network shows these instead of pushing AllAccess on us.
Two a day. They might just show one on CBSSN and one on AllAccess live, then the AllAccess on on delay later.