# What Have We Learned Since 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Political Topics\ **Created:** [January 14, 2022, 1:42pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967 "2022-01-14T13:42:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 7:10pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/101 "2022-01-18T19:10:41Z")
> [@CuriousGeorge](#): > > This isn’t something that requires citations. It is, because every discussion is better with data over random anecdotes. Asking for citations/links \<\> denying, just means I want people to prove their claims. ---
**Author:** ![Ajstudies](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/ajstudies/32/12532_2.png) [@Ajstudies](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Ajstudies)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 7:13pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/102 "2022-01-18T19:13:31Z")
It may not be the case where you live. I know it is for my area right now. Even if some of my evidence is anecdotal. ---
**Author:** ![CuriousGeorge](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/curiousgeorge/32/28457_2.png) [@CuriousGeorge](https://community.goactuary.com/u/CuriousGeorge)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 7:24pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/103 "2022-01-18T19:24:51Z")
> [@MayanActuary](#): > > It is, because every discussion is better with data over random anecdotes. Asking for citations/links \<\> denying, just means I want people to prove their claims. Except, random anecdotes **are** proof, unless you are going to call those people liars or just wrong about their experience. I guess my point was that it is a common enough occurrence that an actual citation seemed unnecessary (though multiple have been posted now). If you weren’t aware of the issue, I can see that a citation would be useful. ---
**Author:** ![NerdAlert](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nerdalert/32/683_2.png) [@NerdAlert](https://community.goactuary.com/u/NerdAlert)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 7:27pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/104 "2022-01-18T19:27:05Z")
> [@twig93](#): > > > [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](#): > > > > so everyone who desires to be protected from this virus is protected. > > This is false. He is fully aware it is false. ---
**Author:** ![JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jfg/32/8801_2.png) [@JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/u/JFG)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:06pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/105 "2022-01-18T20:06:45Z")
![image](https://community.goactuary.com/uploads/default/original/2X/d/dec30edd3065730d4c9a96bd4150da69e99416ec.png) ---
**Author:** ![dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@dr\_t\_non-fan](https://community.goactuary.com/u/dr_t_non-fan)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:15pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/106 "2022-01-18T20:15:35Z")
There was a hospital somewhere that closed its maternity ward. I’ll look it up, Thomas, since you need to stick your fingers and hands into it all. [https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/florida-hospital-closes-maternity-ward-over-covid-staff-shortages/](https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/florida-hospital-closes-maternity-ward-over-covid-staff-shortages/) More about staff shortages, but it’s still COVID-related, 'cuz people are getting COVID. ---
**Author:** ![JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jfg/32/8801_2.png) [@JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/u/JFG)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:17pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/107 "2022-01-18T20:17:19Z")
I linked that before. He said it was from all the non-sick staff. ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:21pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/108 "2022-01-18T20:21:12Z")
Yes, this hospital. [Holy Cross Health moving to close maternity ward permanently | Miami Herald](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article257267467.html) > The hospital cited a decline in birth rate as a result of changing demographics in surrounding communities as part of the reason for the closure. Holy Cross added that patients are choosing other hospitals for obstetric services, which deal with pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period. > Deliveries at Holy Cross Health were less than 800 per year, down from 1,359 in 2013 — the hospital’s high point, it said. > Holy Cross Health said it had already evaluated the unit’s long-term feasibility prior to the temporary closure. ---
**Author:** ![MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/mayanactuary/32/8794_2.png) [@MayanActuary](https://community.goactuary.com/u/MayanActuary)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:22pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/109 "2022-01-18T20:22:27Z")
> [@JFG](#): > > He said Different “he” this time, unless my memory is really failing me. ---
**Author:** ![JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/jfg/32/8801_2.png) [@JFG](https://community.goactuary.com/u/JFG)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:26pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/110 "2022-01-18T20:26:38Z")
He = @Nick_Papagiorgio ---
**Author:** ![Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nick_papagiorgio/32/451_2.png) [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Nick_Papagiorgio)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:40pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/111 "2022-01-18T20:40:06Z")
Are we talking about children under 5? There is near 0 risk there. ---
**Author:** ![Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nick_papagiorgio/32/451_2.png) [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Nick_Papagiorgio)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 8:41pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/112 "2022-01-18T20:41:24Z")
Well darn it sounds better when they say it’s because of Covid rather than a business decision. Hospitals would never use a PR tactic like that though would they? Slightly more skepticism here from a health insurer employee of the hospitals motivations than from the husband of an ER Doc which makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![3rookie](https://community.goactuary.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/3/e0b2c6/32.png) [@3rookie](https://community.goactuary.com/u/3rookie)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/113 "2022-01-18T22:30:48Z")
> [@MayanActuary](#): > > I’ll put it another way for you. I regularly work out indoors doing cardio right next to multiple unvaccinated individuals, share weights, give hi fives, etc. I literally don’t care about anyone else’s vaccinated status. In the current environment, I am choosing to cease this activity so that I do not serve as a vector to my kids who go in-person to school, who may spread to others in school, who bring covid to their home, etc. I did reengage in this activity last June, and I plan to in February if projections of extremely low cases are correct. I admit it is impossible to know if there is any societal impact from my behavior. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2022, 10:49pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/114 "2022-01-18T22:49:39Z")
Children under 5, people who are allergic to ingredients in the vaccine and therefore can’t get it, people who have been advised not to get it for other reasons, as well as people for whom the vaccine is less than 100.00% effective. By the way, every single human being and most or possibly all other mammals on planet earth fall into one or more of those categories. ---
**Author:** ![Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/nick_papagiorgio/32/451_2.png) [@Nick\_Papagiorgio](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Nick_Papagiorgio)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 11:31am UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/115 "2022-01-19T11:31:39Z")
This means we never leave a state of perpetual mandates. That’s unacceptable and untenable in a Democracy which this country still is. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 12:30pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/116 "2022-01-19T12:30:27Z")
Assertion: We will never leave a state of perpetual mandates. Reason: Vaccines do not provide 100% protection for 100% of the population wishing to be protected. Answer: D - The Assertion is false but the Reason is true. The virus is getting less severe and has infected a large share of the population at this point. It’s only a matter of time before it is no more of a threat than, and no more common than influenza. I’m guessing another month or maybe two is all that’s needed. And no, I have not said that before. ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 1:55pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/117 "2022-01-19T13:55:19Z")
> [@twig93](#): > > The virus is getting less severe and has infected a large share of the population at this point. It’s only a matter of time before it is no more of a threat than, and no more common than influenza. I’m guessing another month or maybe two is all that’s needed. If the goal is to prevent vulnerable individuals from ever catching omicron, then I suspect we’ll still be fighting throughout the year and next fall. The wave will pass over us, and hospitalizations will plummet back down, but Omicron’s severity and infectiousness will remain, until it mutates again anyway. The absurdly high level of infectiousness will make it so that, even when few people have it, outbreaks will continue to hit any group of people that puts down their guard. I do agree we’ll put down the mandates. But mostly because all the anti-vaxxers will finally have caught it, which means almost everyone will have immunity, which means the hospitals will never get choked again on covid. But the vulnerable people will still be vulnerable, imo. ---
**Author:** ![twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/twig93/32/527_2.png) [@twig93](https://community.goactuary.com/u/twig93)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 2:40pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/118 "2022-01-19T14:40:08Z")
> [@SredniVashtar](#): > > The absurdly high level of infectiousness will make it so that, even when few people have it, outbreaks will continue to hit any group of people that puts down their guard. If 80% of the population has already been infected (which some estimates claim) then there aren’t that many people left in whom an outbreak can occur. We may be approaching true herd immunity. And if the vaccine becomes a requirement for attending school and maybe eventually even daycare, then the number of unprotected folks is going to be very small. I recall reading that Moderna was testing in infants as young as 6 months. So down the road it might only be the youngest babies and those medically indicated who can’t be vaccinated. That might be few enough people for meaningful herd immunity to be a thing. ---
**Author:** ![Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/vorian_atreides/32/65623_2.png) [@Vorian\_Atreides](https://community.goactuary.com/u/Vorian_Atreides)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 2:54pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/119 "2022-01-19T14:54:06Z")
> [@twig93](#): > > So down the road it might only be the youngest babies Might note that most vaccines aren’t given until age 6 months (or later); with most given after the kid’s first birthday. [Easy-to-read Immunization Schedule by Vaccine for Ages Birth-6 Years | CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/easy-to-read/child-easyread.html) ---
**Author:** ![SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/user_avatar/community.goactuary.com/srednivashtar/32/2894_2.png) [@SredniVashtar](https://community.goactuary.com/u/SredniVashtar)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2022, 3:26pm UTC](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967/120 "2022-01-19T15:26:28Z")
> [@twig93](#): > > If 80% of the population has already been infected (which some estimates claim) then there aren’t that many people left in whom an outbreak can occur. > > We may be approaching true herd immunity. And if the vaccine becomes a requirement for attending school and maybe eventually even daycare, then the number of unprotected folks is going to be very small. > > I recall reading that Moderna was testing in infants as young as 6 months. So down the road it might only be the youngest babies and those medically indicated who can’t be vaccinated. That might be few enough people for meaningful herd immunity to be a thing. I think you’re talking longer-term here. I’m mostly thinking this year… Here’s a slew of thoughts going through my head: - The definition of “herd immunity” is proportional to infection rate. Since the infection rate is absurdly high, herd immunity will require an absurdly small number of susceptible people. - It especially relies on people with immunity not being able to catch and spread the disease (nevermind deer). - Vaccine mandates will soon be unnecessary because basically all of the anti-vax people will catch it. - Booster immunity will wane in another month, and a lot of healthy adults won’t bother with a 4th jab. - Even if infection is very high in some communities, it at least seems to be quite limited in other communities, where people are most careful, and those communities are ripe for outbreaks. - Mask mandates in public spaces are failing right now, because people are getting it anyway. - To the extent they work, they are keeping us from reaching herd immunity. - In any case, we will drop the mandates after a while, and any place with a low rate now, like a college that is doing its best to keep everyone safe, will become a hot spot. [Previous page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967.md?page=5) [Next page](https://community.goactuary.com/t/what-have-we-learned-since-2020/4967.md?page=7)