Is an executive order telling the Treasury to not pay those coupons even possible?
It’s absolutely possible.
Whether such an order would be constitutional is an entirely different question, however.
Tracks perfectly with his business strategies.
Also, you better believe that SOME people’s/countries’ coupons will be paid.
Like Canada’s, your friendly neighbour?
Our US treasuries holdings are a lot less than I feared though. I figured we were holding $1 trillion.
No.
How much cybercoin did Canada buy? Zero?
You’re not even a dictatorship!
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A glimpse at how big the tax cuts are in this bill compared to everything else
Of course it’s possible. The question is whether it’s legal - and that depends: is it a Republican or a Democrat giving that order?
I see it as the Secretary of the Treasury [currently Scott Bessent] giving directions to not pay. Jerome Powell would probably try to fight that, but put some schmuck in as head of the Federal Reserve and then you’d have Bessent saying “don’t pay” and that schmuck standing back and letting pieces fall wherever.
Arguably, there’s already a problem with “full faith and credit” to any extent the government has refusing since 1/20 to pay vendors for services provided, but that’s a different story.
No attribution. Are the figures based on the forward rates? If so, as calculated when?
It’s tough to predict the demand side for bond rates even 2 years out given the effect of tariffs. Predicting tariffs even 1 month is a challenge, so doing it on a 5yr horizon must have a lot of error.
Yeah, well just short the US and make a fortune. Sell the ten year and buy the 5 yr bond. Given the shape of the current curve, it won’t require much cash outlay. You’ll just have to cover the liquidity costs if rates drop, which you clearly feel is not gonna happen. Pig iron under water. Take your profit.
Free advice from a Gnome…and now all that stuff about past results and nah nah nah.
I am fairly certain that is JD’s current plan based on his commentary.
But Republicans don’t accept the estimates and believe the resulting explosion in the economy from the tax cuts will produce a reduction in the national debt. They also believe in Santa Claus presumably.
Yes, they jack the assumed GDP growth rate way up to claim we can just grow our way out of this. Meanwhile tariffs do the opposite to GDP growth.
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This is the same way they tried to sell trickle-down economics in the 80’s. Why do people keep falling for this BS?
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Supporters of the Big Beautiful Bill say they are just preventing the biggest tax increase in American history. The discussion that would happen in other countries is that maybe higher taxes are needed as part of a fight against growing debt. The US focus is solely on spending.
They win on the culture war issues, so they get whatever they want on policy.
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True, but there is also a huge contingent that actually believes the hype, contrary to all logic and data.
