United States Presidential & Congressional Election 2024

FiveThirtyEight’s presidential election model for 2024 has gone live: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight

There’s a podcast also out discussing how their model works. In it it’s pointed out that this early in election season the model puts a great deal of weight on “the fundamentals”. Closer to the election, the model relies much more heavily on polling data. If they ran the model with current polling results as if it were election day, it would show Trump with an 80%-ish chance of winning.

My wife had a doctor’s appointment this morning, and this podcast popped up as the entertainment for the drive home. It included some good commentary on how modeling works in general…and sitting through it seemed to help my wife finally understand some of what I do when I’m locked in my office upstairs. It’s a little long, and a little wonky, but non-actuaries might be able to get their minds around some of the nuances in predictive modeling better because 538’s models rely on data that the muggles are generally more familiar with.

Here’s the link to the video version of the podcast: Video 538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up - ABC News

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Interesting how non symmetric the distribution is. If its super close its more likely to be Biden.

Eh? I don’t see that, though my eyes may not be great at guesstimating dots.

I’m also not seeing the “if it’s close, it’s Biden”.

From the podcast discussion, I suspect the asymmetry is a reflection that several of the swing states are close and correlated. It wouldn’t take much of a leftward deviation from the mean for a LOT of electoral votes to go to Biden.

A rightward deviation from mean, however…the big electoral vote states that are potentially competitive are already on Trump’s side. Moving right only increases Trump’s margin of victory in those states, and picks up a few smaller states that are currently evaluated as leaning Biden.

Probably has to do with the Electoral Collage and how votes are not distributed in proportion to the popular vote and how a swing of a medium large state can change the count somewhat bigley.

According to this chart, given the election is extremely close, there’s more than a 2/3 chance that Biden wins. Here’s the relevant sliver of the chart:

I think that effect wears away once you look at 3 columns on each side instead of just one.

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I’ve seen some discussion of Trump vs. Biden in terms of apparent physical vigor. I’ll say that standing on stage in a suit with a jacket and a tie and talking in that heat is pretty impressive. ( The article didn’t say how long he spoke, though. )

I expect that at the Presidential debate Trump will look physically more vigorous than Biden. That will influence many voters so I am hoping that Biden will at least be more coherent in the debate.

Will be travelling June 27 so will not watch it live but catch the highlights afterwards, if there are any.

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Hannity has talked again about how Trump would be smart to skip the first debate b/c they’ll just put Biden on the same drugs that he took for the SotU address.

This is pretty much a given. It takes some heavy editing to make sense of Trump’s rants.

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Violent crime stats show big drop in all forms of crime. so naturally Trumps reply is I reject your facts and make up my own.


Ohio Election Shock as Republican District Shifts 20 Points to Democrats - Newsweek

ARepublican district in Ohio has shifted 20 points to the Democrats in the state’s latest special election.

Republican state Senator Michael Rulli defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak to win the election held in eastern Ohio’s 6th District on Tuesday to fill a vacancy left by Bill Johnson, who resigned in January after 13 years in [Congress] to become president of Youngstown State University.

While Rulli was able to win by nearly 10 percentage points, with 54.7 percent of the vote to Kripchak’s 45.3 percent, the results mark a notable decline in GOP support the Ohio district compared to previous elections. Johnson won his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points.

Meanwhile, reacting to the result, Rulli said: “We knew the polls were going to be close, and the guy I ran against really worked. He’s a really hard worker. But this is a blue-collar district, this is Bruce Springsteen, the forgotten man, ‘Joe Bag of Donuts.’ They don’t trust the Democrats and Republicans, and they look at the individual. And I’m really good at retail politics.”

Longtime incumbent wins R +30, special election for replacement has no turnout and is R +10. I think we’re reading tea leaves here.


The Danbury Institute writes on its website that it opposes abortion from “the moment of conception, meaning that each pre-born baby would be treated with the same protection under the law as born people.”

“The intentional, pre-meditated killing of a pre-born child should be addressed with laws already in place concerning homicide,” its website states. “We also support bolstering the foster care system and encouraging Christian adoption and are working with churches around the country to help them become equipped to care for children in need of loving families.”

Another section of the Danbury Institute’s website states the organization believes, “the greatest atrocity facing our generation today is the practice of abortion—child sacrifice on the altar of self.” “Abortion must be ended,” the website states. “We will not rest until it is eradicated entirely.”

“These are going to be your years because you’re going to make a comeback like just about no other group,” Trump said. “I know what’s happening. I know where you’re coming from and where you’re going. And I’ll be with you side by side.”

Even most Democrats believe crime is up.

It’s an easy win. Nobody looks at statistics, so people believe whatever they want to.

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Me too. Though judging by the 2015, 2016, and 2020 debates, I don’t think the public too gives many shits about coherence. They just want a strongman, and Trump will have that.


Yep, anecdotes of crime are easy to show on the 6 oclock news, is there even a 6 oclock news any more. So even if it is down you can say, but Jimmy got robbed so crime is rampant.

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anecdotes as well as news cycles.

airline “near misses”; shark attacks the numbers rarely fluctuate greatly, but when one makes the news cycle, the all start getting reported and everyone feels it must be increasing

Don’t get Trump started again about the increased rate of shark attacks in Joe Biden’s America.

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Next he’ll be talking about the documentary he saw where sharks attacked Las Vegas with help from a tornado.