United States Presidential & Congressional Election 2024

CPD still seems to exist, although its longevity probably should be questioned given the GOP swore they’d never support a CPD debate after 2020.

Probably best to wait and see if they’re still around in 2028

https://debates.org/2023/11/20/2024-sites/index.html

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There you go. If they set up a Biden-RFKjr debate that lends more legitimacy to the debate.

I think this is still debatable.

Hmmm… well is he going to sound ludicrous? If people are truly undecided between RFK Jr and Biden, if Biden is rested and sounds Presidential and RFK Jr sounds unhinged then that still helps Biden, I think.

It’s a bigger risk if RFK Jr might look energetic and Presidential and actually might take more votes from Biden than Trump in swing states.

It will give them something to debate about

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You can see cross-tabs on the swing-states over here. Technically, Biden is closer with the 3rd parties, because MI is closer. But that could easily be sample size or something.

This question from the poll is…not surprising, but interesting to see quantified:
image

They also have that broken down by who they chose when RFK Jr was removed from the election options (vertical axis is in the same as the prior image):
image

That is a rather small sample, so… :person_shrugging:

Lara Trump and Sean Hannity have both started talking about the debate rules being unfair, and Trump has asked for a 3rd debate on Fox in October. I expect Trump to pull out in protest because the rules are unfair and because Biden will end up wanting to have the first debate before agreeing to one on Fox.

I’m not sure why someone would agree to a debate with unfair rules. The solution it is to keep negotiating until they are “fair.” Which for Trump means way in his favor, cuz he could not win a debate otherwise. It means no fact-checker on site to dispute every single sentence he utters in real time, and shit like that.

I’m not sure this is even possible. Maybe if we feed all the news to ChatGPT and run that on an IBM Deep Blue, maybe.

Perhaps the solution is just to have a buzzer every time he lies that cuts his mic for three seconds.

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The ol’ Cliff Claven technique, eh?

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Oh man, I’m wracking my brain and I cannot N the R.

Dance mailman.

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There is also the lie detector with Moe:

Good, 'cause I have a hot date tonight. (lie dectector buzzes)
A date. (lie detector buzzes)
Dinner with friends. (lie detector buzzes)
Dinner alone. (lie detector buzzes)
Watching TV alone. (lie detector buzzes)
Alright! I’m going to sit at home and ogle the ladies in the Victoria’s Secret catalog. (lie detector buzzes)
Sears catalog. (lie detector dings)
Now, would you unhook this already, please? I don’t deserve this kind of shabby treatment! (lie detector buzzes)

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Been reading a bit more into the swing voters that are moving away from Biden in 2024 (vs 2020).

I totally get that they blame the high prices on Biden (as the President)

But how does voting for Trump “fix” that. This is increasingly starting to remind me of the Brexit vote in the UK. i.e. life is shit so I am going to vote against the easiest target because “reasons”.

Please make it make sense.

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Around half the population is dumber than average and humans in general are often irrational.

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Recency bias.

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Fixed.

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Nah, we’re all above average.

Your comment reminds me of my younger days when the actuarial salary survey results came out. We all argued we were above average and we should be paid at the first quartile level not the median level. Not surprisingly, our employer disagreed.