Trump impeachment #3

The Sandbox Political Topics
22

If the political climate were such that the D’s could pick up 12 R seats in the Senate, I’d think there would be a reasonable expectation that they wouldn’t lose any of the 13.

Heck, to get to 12, you’d probably need McConnell and Graham deciding to step down, and MAGAs winning the primaries. It’d be more likely that the political climate shifts such that moderate R’s took their places (or they stick around but be willing to convict).

When we’re that deep into improbable scenarios, anything becomes possible (albeit still very, very, very unlikely).

(And now it looks like my query has finished running, and I need to go choose among a couple of options of what I want a tail to look like out at a 1:10000 return period.)

23

60 means picking up 13, not 12. Otherwise yes, this is a fair point.

24

I wasn’t looking at the 60-seat cloture threshold.

My thinking was more:

  • 22 R seats up in 2026
  • 10 are extremely safe and loyal to Trump
  • Therefore, we’re left looking at 12 seats as the extreme best-case for the D’s.

(Unless Trump goes completely off the rails, D+4 is probably the realistic best-case for D’s. On the current trajectory, D+1 or D+2 seem more likely.)

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25

I stand corrected . . . don’t know why I was thinking 60 was the magic number (apart from ensuring that a motion to vote would need this number).

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26

There’s a lot of magic thresholds.

Convicting an impeached person and overriding a Presidential veto are both 2/3.

27

Wonder how low Trump can go in polling before this creeps back into the discussion.