Thread To Post NIMBY

Really?
Here’s a little exercise for you. Research the average square footage of new homes in America since the second WW.

Tie those findings into your general theory of expansion. The fact is, cities have a model that requires an increasing tax base. It’s the way to cover increasing levels of debt. But it ultimately a long term financial plan taken from the Bernie Madoff playbook.

I had a good chuckle when I researched twigs example of Cincinnati and I74. It’s had like 5 fixes over the past 40 years. In fact, the Ohio DOT is planning for another starting in2024. not exactly WAI.

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New York City has discussed a congestion zone system for the lower half of Manhattan.

NYC also has an epidemic of license plate obfuscation because of the transition to fully-automated tolls on bridges and tunnels.

I’m not sure why you brought this up. Is it relevant and if so, how?

Also I’m curious your source. I’m not questioning your claim… just curious to see for myself.

Certainly the average sq ft of new houses has been going up. Americans have gotten richer and some of that extra money has gone into bigger houses. That doesn’t directly tie into more roads.

OTOH, bigger lots would tie into more roads. My folks’ 1940 lot was 35 feet wide. The 1972 lots where I live are 80 feet wide. Looking around the internet I get a range of numbers, but it seems lot sizes may have capped out somewhere in the 1970s.

But, I’m unsure where you are going with this.

Bigger cities have more debt. If there is a cause and effect, which way does the arrow point? And, why is this related to house sizes?

Suppose population is going up, and the number of school kids is going up. The city builds new schools and finances them with bonds. Did they decide to build the school first, and then hustle to add housing? Or, did they see that the population was coming and they built schools to accommodate the increased population?

And, how is this related to the type of housing? They are going to need new school buildings whether the the new population is in ten story apartment buildings, new attached row houses, or in single family houses on quarter acre lots. They are going to have new debt either way.

I can’t wait for EimonGone to come back here and spring the traps he’s been setting for people who couldn’t see where he was heading.

Ohio dept of transportation. The public records include their highway plans. Most states have something along that same line.

I’m surprised you did not do a little research before choosing your examples.

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Do you have a link?

5 fixes in 40 years doesn’t sound excessive. What is the average for a road like that?

I may just not know what “fixes” means in this context.

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The arrow is time. You can track it either forward (future) or backward (history?).

The reason houses get bigger has at least a little to do with real estate development and builders. Bigger houses sell for more. They maximize the profits for builders and developers. If you are looking for cause and effect, start there.

I DO NOT CONTEND ALL ROADS AND STREETS ARE MONEY LOSERS!

Let’s look at cities and roads. What is their purpose? What delineates a good execution from a bad one. It’s easiest to remind yourself what their underlying function is before trying to assess if they are “good” or “bad”.

Cities originally had two functions. Security and commerce. Old enough cities may still have ancient walls. We don’t build walls around cities anymore.

Commerce we do promote. Commerce is the essential function today. Agreed, so far?

Roads were designed to bring goods to market. Connect up the grain mill with the city/town. Connect the shoe factory to the source of the leather. Also connecting towns to each other to create broader markets proved quite useful.

The heart of it is commerce. Look at any municipality. The “downtown” area had the most commerce. Sales tax and fees in downtown districts provided the money to support parks and schools, and services like police, courts, etc. All good right?

This is how things worked all over the world. From Ancient Rome and the Indian subcontinent to Timbuktu. But North America has diverged from that in a rather unique way. That is perhaps best explained by remembering a phrase from the mid 20th century. "What’s good for GM is good for America ". And we began to prioritize cars over people. (Did you know that car makers lobbied for jaywalking laws in the 1920s. Nothing says car first quite like jaywalking laws. Seems maimed and dead pedestrians were tarnishing the auto’s image)

So we started to emphasize car travel. We still do today. Munis found they could let builders put in cul de sac, suburban homes and Shazam, new tax revenue. Not from commerce, but from property tax. Just had to connect the workers and consumers to the jobs and stores. Enter the Stroad.

Now the problem here is that the residential revenue base is insufficient. Needed maintenance and services, once funded by commerce, no longer had any commerce. The commerce is now in other jurisdictions. Oops.

It’s a sad story. One not easily corrected.

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A quick hypothetical to illustrate how what seems to be an asset turns into a liability.

Imagine you are bequeathed a vacation property by a distant but wealthy Aunt. It’s a home on one of the outer Islands in the Bahamas. Great good fortune! An island villa all your own!

As you soon learn, the maintenance is a bit steep. The property can only be reached by charter plane. It’s not like flying to Disney World. But whatever. Also, the home has a staff: a landscaper, a handyman, and a caretaker. The caretaker is someone you trust enough to spend your money on the inevitable items needed to keep the place habitable and pay the staff. He is the one that drops off your car at the airport so you can drive to your villa, for instance. All told, you figure that all in, it’s going to cost about $115,000/year. This includes the required bribes to the harbor master for any parts and imports, security, and energy. If you just let it sit unattended for months at a time, well you may as well put up a sign reading Take whatever you want.

So if your budget doesn’t allow for this new after tax expense, you have a liability. Better sell the villa. The sooner the better. Great asset? Sure. Big liability, no doubt.

Now 6 lanes highways are a bit trickier. You cannot sell them. It’s yours from now on. The shopping mall built back in the 1980s used to be vibrant. Now it’s a public hazard, with a liquor store, a fitness gym, and a tattoo parlor. Sears and JC Penney’s left long ago. And you just got word that the Amazon warehouse at the next interchange is closing. Same for the State Farm claims center. Good bye commercial revenue.

How you liking that deal now? What’s the plan, Stan?

Want to see this first hand? Get off I 80 at Elyria OH. Head to the hotels near the old mall. It’s not a pretty sight. And I have no idea how there’s any way out for that place.

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I remember this from a while back, but it’s remarkable how much extra retail space per capita the 3 western countries with the most space have, US, Canada and Australia. Lots of ghost malls for the future -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058852/retail-space-per-capita-selected-countries-worldwide/

I’m quite sure that builders and developers understood that bigger houses sold for more dollars as long as there have been profit seeking builders. I don’t buy a sudden discovery of greed as the cause. Houses have gotten bigger because the people buying them have had the real incomes to buy more. (Possibly, if we look at income distribution and household formation and exactly which subset of the population buys new houses we would see another factor at work.) But, again, I’m not sure how house sizes are relevant to the story.

Commerce is the essential function today. Agreed, so far?

If “commerce” means trade, no I don’t agree. Early cities my have been trading hubs, modern cities are production locations. Whether it is insurance or automobiles or software, cities are where we make stuff. Roads are not primarily used as throughputs to transfer goods produced in rural areas on to ships, for example. They are used to move mostly people, and also goods, around the city. There is also some shipping of locally produced goods out and also remotely produced in. Count passenger cars and trucks on city streets and I think you’ll find many more cars.

The “so” suggests a this is the result of some prior step. I don’t see it. No, the US did not move to cars because GM had so much political clout. It moved to cars because people preferred this mode of travel. Riding from door to door in your private, weather proof vehicle is more comfortable than other options for distances beyond an easy walk.

And, cars are a means to something else people valued – a single family house with a yard. GM didn’t force people or bribe them into moving out of those crowded apartments to the “fresh air”, GM just gave them a new tool that made it possible.

Did some political maneuvering add a push? Probably. Was it the primary factor? No.

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Valid points. And apropos for the thread title.

So let me share my idea of the correct metric to use when deciding land use. Land Value. This metric will contain information that indicates the wealth of the city/town and also factor in things like commercial potential, ease of access, and I’m sure you see the rationale.

So… if that’s a reasonable metric, then you want to increase that value since land is a finite resource. Larger homes will reduce that value. Putting an apartment on a 2 acre lot will be higher value than a single 5 bedroom house. That should be obvious. Putting a mixed use multi story structure, with shops and restaurants on the first floor, office space on the next 3, and residences atop that is even better. Notice that things like water runoff solutions are much lower with the 5 story building than the equivalent structures lid out in 1 or 2 stories. Water falls from the sky and does not dump inordinate amounts on taller structures. That’s just a single item. I’ll bet we could come up with a list of others, but not needed to make the point. About the worst possible use is 4 acres of asphalt to park cars 1/4 of the week. Again, that should be clear.

So, I am not proposing to eliminate single family homes. For those with the means, it’s a dream that could come true. But we have to be realistic and grant that if we make owning a car a virtual necessity to do so…it’s going to put a large segment of the population without a credible way to achieve that dream. You are not going to afford the home and a car without a middle class income. If it takes 2 wage earners in the household, then might as well add in another car. Think of your own living expenses. Do you really want to get your hair cut by a barber making $180,000/yr? Without the lower wage workers everything is gonna cost more.

Lastly, it is important to get a grip on what’s gong to happen when you add capacity to that freeway, allowing more autos to commute “in”. Where are you planning on parking those cars . How much land do you want spend on parking that is used a fraction of the time? Adding road capacity and then shrugging your shoulders with what to do with them when they arrive is irresponsible.

And my example of the mall is simply to highlight the permanence of adding lanes or new roads. They may have been built with great intentions, but sadly things can change in one generation. Desired routes today are not guaranteed to be desired 30 years from now. But it’s wacky to think the city will just let that infrastructure turn to ruble. Roads are not flexible, where as mass transit is very flexible. Routes that are no longer needed are easily discontinued. Routes that need more capacity…add more trains, buses,or trolleys. Easy

To get a sense of the traffic volumes associated with various land uses, we have traffic engineers. They have more data and understanding than we need.
Traffic by land use.

On a more humorous note. Widening freeways causes me to recall a passage from a book I read long ago, “A Child’s Garden Of Grass” it described various places you can hide your pot, each with a pro and con. The last suggestion was my favorite.
“Throw it way up high, it works very well for short periods of time.”

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It seems to me we’re basically at the peak of land use issues. Population in the US has stopped growing and we don’t seem to want immigration. This would tell me that over the next 20 years we’re probably going to transition to a time of too much housing availability.

Perhaps.
Or perhaps the earth warms another couple of degrees and 50 million people in the Southwest/CA have to migrate to someplace with water. Got enough spare beds in KY to absorb 2.5million new residents?

In any future, I’d like enough flexibility to deal with whatever problems are presented. Adaptability got us this far, and I want to be at least as resilient as the rats and cockroaches. Ok, that may be a bar too high.

You didn’t say “tax” here, but I assume you are arguing for a land value tax. My basic idea is that taxes fund gov’t and they should be allocated so that people with greater financial means pay more. An LVT says that if everyone in the neighborhood has the same size lot, then the people who built the most expensive homes on their lots pay the same tax as those who have much more modest homes. Not where I want to go.

But, it gets more complicated. I’m okay with Pigouvian taxes that reflect the cost of negative externalities. IF I can see a calculation of the negative externalities of using more land, I could say that should be embedded in property taxes. Also, I figure that taxes on commercial property get shifted to consumers. I think those taxes should reflect the costs these commercial buildings create for the city, but above that it’s hard to come up with a theory.

I believe someone has pitched an LVT to the city of Minneapolis. I can see the city saying is uniquely positioned in the metro area to create a dense, walkable city core. Maybe an LVT within __ miles of the desired center would make sense as a way of capitalizing on that potential.

You are concerned about low income people who can’t afford cars. I think we’ve talked about this before. Low income people seem to be able to operate cars for about $4,000/yr per vehicle. I don’t think people need median incomes to handle that. Certainly, some can’t (I’ve got a relative in this position right now). Your solution seems to be to make it so hard to own cars that most people need to use public transportation. This higher usage justifies more routes and higher frequencies on those routes, making it easier for poor people to get around. Okay, I see the goal, but we’re inconveniencing the 80% to accommodate the 20%. Maybe there is a better way.

It’s hard for me to think of rail lines as flexible, and buses travel on the same roads as cars. Cars are flexible. I can change jobs and drive to my new job. If I had housing that was convenient to my job because they are both on the same public transit route, than my reliance on public transit becomes a problem.

If malls failed because people moved to online shopping instead of in person shopping, we can also ask whether dense cities will fail because people move to online work instead of in person work. Those big office buildings in downtown cores served by public transport networks could have trouble maintaining occupancy. Don’t we end up with the same problem?

This is true. Lets look at the alternative. Don’t add capacity, people either deal with terrible traffic or find a way to live closer to work. Tear down old low rise buildings and build new high rise (were those old buildings affordable housing for poor people?) with short bus trips to work. Some people will say they are fine with living closer to the core and they don’t miss the open spaces of the suburbs. Others will say they want to find work in the suburbs, and will employers accommodate them by moving out to the beltway. (Maybe we should have started here instead of visiting everything above.)

I remember seeing excerpts from this series years ago, but when I saw this thread on Twitter today it made me think of the current highway discussion in this thread

https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1645072346590371841?t=PpEoBRk43dlNThq_w8qncg&s=19

My city is a 1st ring suburb that is 100% built. No open land to develop, only redevelopment.

Theres a loud faction in town who rail against the allowance of new high density housing (apartments/condos mostly like a 5 over 1 style) at the expense of more “single family housing.” Yet everyone wants tax base and retail amenities.

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I like what California has recently done with the parking space laws. It’s a relatively quick fix until the public transit improves, that reduces the number of parking spaces required near public transit. There will be a number of people living nearby that will have less need for cars. If they do have a car they could store it a parking garage that is a quick transit ride away (which is was some people do in New York).

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Thx for the comments. I did not mean to imply tax at all. E.g. 10 acres of farm land. In Iowa it has a higher value than eastern New Mexico. If I were placing a nuclear power plant, I’d do it in NM; less of a “cost” compared to Iowa. Or more to our discussion. If you had to choose where to put a parking lot, then don’t do it in the city center if you can do it at a rail station 15 miles outside of town and have peeps take the train in. Fans will do it.
We can argue about how to precisely calculate the number, but any set of reasonable parameters will suffice. If you end up with a figure that says the NM acres are way more valuable, you might tinker a bit with that solution. While property tax could be part of the calc, I’d be sure to include sales taxes somewhere in there as well. We are trying to strengthen the city’s financial footing. How many jobs does it provide, for instance could also be nice input. I’m fairly confident that the metric will be better than strictly looking at total land area or total metro population when allocating the budgets for infrastructure expenditures.

E.g. it’s amazing that we get huge sports arenas surrounded by 10s of acres of parking on very valuable land. The lots get used infrequently, and look like crap. If there is no home game, the utility is zero, and the land is wasted. If you want a stadium inside the city, have a way for patrons to get there without parking a car. Simple stuff. Wriggly field does just fine and you can walk right in. Meanwhile, the Bears are headed to the suburbs. I just think it helps in the decision process. Wembly stadium has very little parking and fills up 90,000 seats all the time.

Which leads to the underlying obstacle for US cities. It’s cultural, not part of human nature. Yes, people would rather ride than walk. but perhaps we’d be better off if people walked a bit more - for reasons unrelated to $s. Just a thought. But that’s not a sword I’m going to fall on. People gonna be people.

And I do not criticize your own priorities. If you feel it’s best to own a car and you can afford it, then go for it. I do, myself. But I do not agree that most people in metro areas can get a reliable vehicle with total annual cost of $4000 and buy a suburban home. We will just let that sit at unresolved.

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