The Debt Limit

And this is bad because…? If you stop nominating fringe candidates, then you are on the path to reconciliation. Not until then.

When you have the power, why would you want to give it up?

But I agree with your point in that not every D is looking to Jeffries for marching order and not every R is looking to McCarthy for what they should do.

But I don’t think that every No vote on either side was for “pure ideological” reasons (but granted that there are some); but there are districts who will not vote for an incumbent when the incumbent doesn’t “vote their way” . . . and I imagine that the learning curve to break in a newbie on the Hill is not small.

It would be interesting to see the characteristics (on both sides) of the No votes.

Some of that info from the post.
Oberview

Interesting stuff. I hope the paywall doesn’t ruin it. If it does, I’ll attempt my usual ham handed copy paste routine.

Here’s how the vote broke down, by the numbers.
117 The number of members who voted against this deal. This was fewer than on any debt ceiling vote since 2017, when 90 were opposed. In the four votes from 2018 to 2021, between 149 and 212 members — overwhelmingly Republicans — voted against it.

78 The percentage of Democrats who voted for the deal.

  1. The percentage of Republicans who voted for the deal. The Freedom Caucus had hoped to keep support shy of a majority of the party, to be able to claim that it was a bad deal or even that McCarthy had violated his agreement with it. In the end, it was they who fell short of their goal. (Caucus members have since argued that because this got somewhat more Democratic votes, it was a Democratic bill and a bad deal.)

71 The number of Republicans voting against it.

66 The number of Republicans who opposed a debt ceiling deal the last time a debt ceiling vote came with significant concessions from a Democratic administration, in 2011.

8 The number of House Freedom Caucus members who voted for the deal, including Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Mike Johnson (R-La.). That means more than 1 in 6 Freedom Caucus members supported it, despite the pushback from other members of the caucus. 9 The number of House Republicans who voted for “clean” debt ceiling bills with no spending cuts under the Trump administration, but voted against this deal.

46 The number of Democrats who voted against the deal. That’s the most to vote against raising or suspending the debt ceiling since 2011. But it’s significantly fewer than the 95 Democrats who voted against the 2011 deal, which created the budget sequester and the debt-reduction “supercommittee.”

66 The percentage of Congressional Progressive Caucus members who voted for the deal. The 100-member caucus provided the bulk of the Democrats’ “no” votes — only 12 other Democrats opposed the deal — and its leadership mostly opposed the deal. But its members were ultimately strongly in favor.

1 Members of “The Squad” to vote for the deal, with Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) voting in favor. Omar said she voted yes to avoid a default, while adding, “President Biden deserves credit for decreasing the ransom these hostage-takers demanded and for staving off even worse cuts for Minnesotans, but this is no way to legislate in a democracy,”

52 The number of Democrats who voted for the Republican rule to advance the deal Wednesday afternoon. Why is that significant? Because Republicans needed Democratic votes for the rule, which is very unusual. These are usually straight party-line votes, and Democratic leaders had suggested Republicans needed to carry the vote. Ultimately, 29 Republicans voted against the rule, leaving McCarthy shy of a majority. Some Democrats had waited to vote until the end, reinforcing that McCarthy needed them. “I probably would have done the same thing,” McCarthy conceded, adding: “Well played.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said that “we had to rescue House Republicans from their own extremism.”

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That’s a bit disappointing in AOC. Id like to hear her reasons, maybe there is something to it.

I don’t think she is nearly the ultra liberal nut that fox tries to make her out to be. She usually makes reasonable points when she tries, although i get it’s still coming from the liberal angle.

I don’t think the dems have up much in the end. The IRS thing is silly in that we have a tax system that requires enforcement, so the spending provides an actual return. Maybe the bottom 15% or whatever was cut is near enough neutral and doesn’t matter.

A number of opponents have cited that the debt ceiling bill gives permits to the Mountain Valley Pipeline as a key part of their opposition. Don’t know if AOC is part of that group or not.

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So many small business owners cheat on their taxes and donate to Republicans though.

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If they both legit want the proposed legislation to pass (ie they are past the negotiation of what’s in the bill phase) then I would think they would share reliable information.

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But they don’t. So the rest is moot.

Who is “they”?

Biden & McCarthy? I think they both want it passed.

The whips themselves? I don’t know who they are, so I have no idea. I assume their actions (if not exactly desires) are in line with Biden and McCarthy

Someone else?

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Well I order for the plan to work, EVERYONE has to be straight. If just a few hold back, then the counts are off. That just simple logic.

So the They must be everyone.

I would bet that the whips are savvy enough to figure out pretty accurately who is actually going to vote each way.

And this particular conversation is about the dem and rep whips communicating. Do, in this context, the “they” that is interesting is the whips themselves or the people they report to.

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Still, trying to play the “they have enough votes to pass without me so I’m going to throw a protest vote out there” game is pretty dangerous.

Or you wind up looking like a racist when you expel the young back dudes from the state legislature but let the old white lady slide because some decided not to be truthful with the whip vote count.

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Imagine, just for a moment, that you are a house member that does not want it passed. Your whip asks if you’re a team player, and wants to know if he can count on your vote.

The only way for you to get what you want is to lie to his face. If all goes well, there will be enough other defectors, some given the wink and a nod, others more like you, that end up as no votes. The bill fails (bad read by the whip?) and you get a parade back home for standing firm. All upside.

Or you can tell him you are a firm no. See if that ends up tanking the bill, and hope it doesn’t even reach the floor.

For the whips to be “reliable”, the members have to be predictable. You say you “would bet”, but at some point the risk return payoffs have to figure in. A better than 50/50 chance…sure. But a good bet? I don’t see it.

Something tells me that this “bold-faced lie” (i.e., as I read your post, saying “I’ll vote yes” and then change later) will only work once . . . and a ginormous downside for anything that might come after.

Especially if your party ends up getting the gavel.

It seems to me that those intending to say “no” are going to hedge by saying “I’m uncertain how I’ll vote. I’m still thinking it over.”

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Again, I’m not a political expert, but I assume that the whips are. They would have to be better at reading these situations than we are. That’s why they have the job.

Will they be perfect? No. Will they be right most of the time? Probably.

And, it’s not all upside, But VA already covered that.

Hey, you all could be right. Lord knows I have no experience walking around the Capitol. Yet, it all seems to be reminiscent of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Tit for tat and all that.

The playing field now seems unusual in that with such a slim majority, McCarthy and the whip have virtually no room for error. In less dramatic times, missing by 2 or 3 isn’t a disaster. But when the passage requires both sides of the aisle, it’s even weirder. Not only does your whip need to be spot on, but also the other team’s. Lots of variables in play that are not always there.

As far as the vote counts…I can see in my mind’s eye the Senate when McCain went thumbs down on ACA repeal. And then there’s the whole shit show wrt McCarty’s speaker votes. The whip missed that one over and over and over again. I have a lot less faith in them than you do. But it’s all conjecture. Just expressing my doubts and keeping my expectations low. Normalcy is a ways away.

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This seems like a special case imo. All those other votes you mentioned didn’t have anywhere near the ramifications of this one. McCarthy knew he could count on plenty of the Democrats to go along with this because it was so clearly in everyone’s best interest to get it done.

I agree with you that in normal circumstances there are way too many wildcard house members to be really confident in the whip count.

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Bo Bo failed to vote against raising the debt limit after weeks of ranting. She tried to frame her lack of vote as a “protest”. In reality she just missed the vote, as cameras captured her racing up the Capitol steps to try to vote.

These morons are going to take us to the brink on defaulting again this September.