I got really annoyed re: the supposed vote gap 2020-2024
Here’s a post:
and the result: It’s not a 20 million vote gap, it’s a 2.5 million vote gap (1.6% less than 2020)
Here are the key calculations:
Sorry if a thread already exists, but I was just getting really annoyed over this.
I did only those states w/ completion of less than 95%.
Thanks. I was also annoyed by early comparisons of interim 2024 vote totals vs 2020 final when lots votes were yet to be counted. It was fueling some pretty bad conclusions.
Voted but not yet… repoted?
Egad. It’s a USA Today-style graph.
We really need to teach IBNR in grade school
Also OBNR (Occurred but not reported) because that’s how most people get news in their silos.
If my news station didn’t report it, it didn’t happen!
And RBNO, like the people eating the pets.
Actually, that’s probably more common than OBNR.
I’ve already had to comment on one on a “Conservatives” FB group.
I was wondering if this analysis needs to be updated with the current vote count or not.
I was looking at vote count trying to understand where we are now.
Um, Trump is still going to be the next President, barring Joe Biden not finishing his term.
In other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.
And now, for our viewers who are hard of hearing…
I was just wondering how an actuary is doing predictive wise vs polling.
So let’s just check in with California:
From my post:
Let’s see where California currently stands:
15,626,400 processed ballots already
570,489 ballots estimated remaining
[ignoring the “ballots to be cured” crap]
that gets the total up to: 16,196,889
Which a bit less than the 17.8 million I was forecasting. HMMMMMM! VOTER SUPRESSION!
Or perhaps, just an overestimation of how many people were going to vote in California.
I think I can wait a bit more until I figure out how much I whiffed my estimate, because I’m going to laugh at the expense of a few people (kind of) – it’s not so much that they screwed up, but that they can’t admit how/why they screwed up.
Given where we are on the forum, this meltdown is nuts:
I have nothing to say about what Cenk is going on about, but Lichtman’s defenses over his own screw-up post election has been horrible. He just has not been able to admit he was simply wrong (and there were various ways he could have done it, but each subsequent appearance I’ve seen has been worse.)
Lichtman is what we call being “high on your own supply”
