The last two S&P 500 peaks (inflation adjusted) took 23 years (1968 to 1991) to get back to that level and 14 years (2000 to 2014).
Another sizeable corporate layoff.
Seems that cost containment to keep up the higher profit margins is the name of the game now.
I wouldn’t pile into this stock. The author is not dismissive of Nvidia though.
Everything you need to know about the AI bubble*
*and how it will pop
There are a lot of things one could point to as proof that a bubble is percolating around artificial intelligence. One of those things is a company called Fermi Inc. FRMI-Q
Founded this year, Fermi aims to roll out 11 gigawatts of electricity to power AI data centres, which is roughly enough electrons to light up Alberta. Fermi holds a 99-year lease on a swath of Texas land able to simultaneously house some of the largest data centres “currently in existence,” according to the company. Fermi went public on the Nasdaq in October and soon hit a valuation of more than US$17-billion. Fermi has zero profit, zero revenue and a single letter of intent from a customer.
Silver now outperforming Gold.
On the PATH in NYC there are advertisements that if you sign up for their trading app they give you money in the form of NVDA shares. Feels bubble-ish, not that I’ll be shorting it.
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Wow. For most of my investing history, my US broad index stocks have well outperformed international, and I almost wondered, why the heck do I still have international?
Since Trump’s 2024 victory and the tariff environment I’ve been beefing up my international holdings… Historically I’ve been 70/30 and I’m closer to 55/45 now.
This past year for me,
US: +13.8%
International: +25.5%
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Assuming the international portfolio return is on a USD basis, how much of that differential is the result of Trumponomics, and how much is the result of the unusual/irrational spike in the value of USD at the start of the year being unwound?
Well, I would argue that Trumponomics is driving most of the flows into international stocks as the US Labour market is noticeably weakening.
UK/European stocks have benefitted significantly from his behavior (over 20% returns this year alone).
Does that include dividends? I’ve been in an international index fund since March and it’s outperformed my US index fund 20.4% to 16.3% but that takes into accounts the dividends (which I receive for international but not for US).
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Right, DXY is down about 10% for the year, pretty much the entire difference.
There was a jump at 1/1, but that was more of a 5% gain in the dollar, so only offsetting half the losses we have this year.
Worth a read if you have been following the WBD, Paramount, and Netflix saga.
Paramount and the Ellison’s do not come out of this looking good.
Cash when?
I have been pondering this question for weeks.
I don’t have an answer yet (unfortunately)
Cash now?
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Call JD Wentworth
Stick it in cash, bonds, and precious metals.
All I see between now and May is volatility as Trump keeps targeting the Fed and causes even more instability in the ME.
We are so far removed from economic fundamentals at this point in time (markets are now driven by speculation and fear) that the entire concept of macro-investing is near impossible. You can’t forecast 3 months out (let alone 1 year out) because of Trump and his antics.
I got out of US equities a while ago (made a nice return this year on European equities) and the situation is even more unstable now.
I’m currently 38% international, 16% metals/mining and I might add more international.
VYMI, VEU, LVHI
You should look back through this thread for plenty of evidence that timing the market has not worked.
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